MDA seeks public input on draft Nitrogen Fertilizer Rule

Nitrogen Fertilizer

The Minnesota Department of Agriculture is looking for public input on a proposed rule dealing with nitrogen fertilizer and possible runoff into Minnesota waters. (photo from netnebraska.org)

The Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) is seeking public review and comment of a draft proposal for regulating the use of nitrogen fertilizer in Minnesota.

The purpose of the proposed Nitrogen Fertilizer Rule is to minimize the potential for nitrate-nitrogen contamination from fertilizer in the state’s groundwater and drinking water. Nitrate is one of the most common contaminants in Minnesota’s groundwater and elevated levels of nitrate in drinking water can pose serious health concerns for humans.

The MDA is seeking public input and will be holding five public listening sessions throughout the state to discuss the proposed Nitrogen Fertilizer Rule at which written comments can be submitted. The draft rule can be viewed online at www.mda.state.mn.us/nfr.

All comments regarding the proposed rule must be submitted in writing. After consideration of comments received, the MDA expects to publish the final draft of the rule in the fall of 2017. The rule is expected to be adopted in the fall of 2018.

The draft Nitrogen Fertilizer Rule is based on the Minnesota Nitrogen Fertilizer Management Plan (NFMP) which recommends steps for minimizing impacts of nitrogen fertilizer on groundwater and emphasizes involving the local community in developing local solutions.

The NFMP went through an extensive development process with input provided by farmers, crop advisors, and others in the agricultural community.

Listening sessions on the draft rule will be held at the following locations:

Thursday, June 22, 5:00 pm
Marshall Public Library
201 C Street, Marshall, MN 56258

Wednesday, June 28, 6:00 pm
Chatfield Center for the Arts
405 Main Street, Chatfield, MN 55932

Thursday, June 29, 2:00 pm
University of Minnesota Extension Office
4100 220th Street West, Farmington, MN 55024

Thursday, July 6, 3:00 pm
Great River Regional Library
1300 West Saint Germain Street, St. Cloud, MN 56301

Tuesday, July 11, 6:00 pm
Robertson Theatre, Wadena-Deer Creek High School
600 Colfax Ave. SW, Wadena, MN 56482

Written comments on the draft Nitrogen Fertilizer Rule should be submitted by Friday August 11, 2017 via mail or email to:

Larry Gunderson
Fertilizer Technical Unit Supervisor
Minnesota Department of Agriculture

625 Robert Street North
St. Paul, MN, 55155-2538
larry.gunderson@state.mn.us

All comments should, but are not required to, include a contact name, phone number and/or email address to provide for follow-up discussion on specific comments. To stay up to date on the rule writing process, please visit: www.mda.state.mn.us/nfr.

The Freshwater Institute is working on ways to keep nitrogen from running into our water supply, but they’re doing it with an eye on keeping farmers as profitable as possible. I thought that was a refreshing change from the usual rhetoric. Here’s a video on something called a bioreactor. Is this something you’d be willing to do on your farm?

The crop insurance battle continues

Crop Insurance

Here’s a photo of winter wheat in western Kansas buried under a snowstorm last weekend. Crop insurance is an important product for farmers in times like these. (Photo from the High Plains Journal)

WHEAT GROUP TWEAKS HERITAGE OVER BLIZZARD DAMAGE: David Schemm, president of the National Association of Wheat Growers, wants representatives of The Heritage Foundation and taxpayer watchdog groups that criticize the federal crop insurance program to witness the damage a spring blizzard inflicted on fields in Kansas, the country’s biggest wheat state, over the weekend. The storm, which dropped a foot to 17 inches in places, hit eastern Colorado, parts of Nebraska and the western part of Kansas, where NAWG estimates it destroyed 43 percent of the state’s winter wheat crop. The timing couldn’t be worse, as wheat farmers are already reeling from several years of extremely low prices.

“From their rhetoric, they would say a lot of farmers will go bankrupt and that’s how it’s supposed to be,” Schemm said of taxpayer groups and the conservative think tank on Tuesday as he surveyed his 4,500 acres of damaged wheat in Sharon Springs, Kan. NAWG had earlier tweeted: “A late season blizzard puts 43% of Kansas’ planted wheat acres under 14 inches of snow. @Heritage how would you handle w/o #cropinsurance?”

About 7.7 million acres of wheat in Kansas – more than 90 percent – are covered by a crop insurance policy, a liability amount equal to $1.1 billion, NAWG estimates based on USDA’s 2016 data. Most of those policies protect against revenue losses, as opposed to just drops in yield, the group said, making an important distinction.

Heritage’s two cents: It’s not true that the Heritage Foundation is against all forms of crop insurance, said Daren Bakst, the group’s research fellow on agricultural policy. “On the yield side, we should be covering deep losses,” like those experienced in the recent storm, he said. “Other risks farmers should be managing on their own.” Heritage did call for eliminating crop insurance policies that guarantee revenue when it released a 65-page paper – which Bakst edited – on managing risk in agriculture last year. Pros, read the report here.

Here’s the podcast recapping the damage in Kansas as well as some better news regarding rebuilding after the wildfires that raged through the plains states:

Minnesota FFA Convention wraps up

Minnesota FFA Convention

The Minnesota State FFA convention wrapped up this week with the election of new state leaders and a bunch of great memories.

The final session of the 88th Minnesota FFA Convention concluded with the election of the six-member state officer team. The newly elected team will serve more than 11,000 members in Minnesota for one year. They will also spend the next year representing Minnesota, agriculture and agricultural education at state and national levels.

The 2017-2018 Minnesota FFA State Officer Team

The state officer candidates were interviewed by a panel of FFA members, agricultural educators and representatives from partnering organizations earlier this week. Elected FFA members were:

President: Katie Benson, Staples Motley FFA Chapter

Vice President: Emily Pliscott, Kenyon-Wanamingo FFA Chapter

Secretary: Kylee Kohls, Litchfield FFA Chapter

Treasurer: Spencer Flood, Dassel-Cokato FFA Chapter

Reporter: Eleora DeMuth, Grand Rapids FFA Chapter

Sentinel: Maddie Weninger, Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted FFA Chapter

 

Career Development Events

During the final session, Career Development Events (CDE) winners were announced. The top chapters in the state will advance to the national competition in Indianapolis in October. CDEs are competitive activities for students to showcase their skills in their respective competition. CDE results will be sent out in early May.

Minnesota FFA Convention

National Chapter Award

The Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted FFA Chapter received top honors for the National Chapter Award, sponsored by the Minnesota FFA Foundation. FFA Chapters apply for this honor by highlighting chapter activities in the categories of student development, chapter development, and community development. Chapter applications are reviewed and scored by a series of judges based on innovating ideas and accomplished goals.

Session speakers

“We live in a world where people are desperate for hope,” said Wendy Bauman, State Secretary, from the Kerkhoven Murdock Sunburg FFA Chapter in her retiring address, Feed Hope “When it comes down to it, the only thing we are able to do is love one another. When we choose to love, we feed hope.”

Mr. Gian Paul Gonzalez, motivational speaker and founder of Hope + Future, shared his insight about living “All In” at the final session of the Minnesota FFA Convention.

“‘All in’ is personal. No one can go ‘All In’ for you; It’s a personal choice.” said Gonzalez.

“No matter what our dreams look like, our success is determined not when we dream, but in the moments when we decide to strive,” said Spencer Wolter, State President, from the Windom FFA Chapter in his retiring address, Gettin’ Chicks.

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About Minnesota FFA

The FFA mission is to make a positive difference in the lives of students by developing their potential for premier leadership, personal growth and career success through agricultural education. More than 25,000 students in Minnesota are enrolled in agricultural education classes. Students who have taken three or more classes in career and technical education, including agricultural education have a graduation rate of 98.7 percent. Visit www.mnffa.org for more information. Follow the Minnesota FFA Convention on social media or watch the recorded general sessions at mnffafoundation.org/livestreaming.

Convention photos by Matt Addington Photography can be viewed at: https://mattaddington.smugmug.com/FFA/2017-State-Convention – Download password: @MNFFA

Here’s what the kickoff to the state convention looked like. Enjoy!

MN FFA Foundation to livestream video during convention

The Minnesota FFA Association is reaching a larger audience with the new feature of live stream, hosted by the Minnesota FFA Foundation, during the 88th Minnesota FFA Convention, April 23-25 at the University of Minnesota (UMN) St. Paul campus. Nearly 4,000 members will attend the three-day event to compete in career development events, attend sessions and workshops and receive awards for their FFA achievements.

FFA Foundation live streaming

The Minnesota FFA Foundation will be hosting a livestream of several events at the Minnesota FFA State Convention in St. Paul April 23-25, for those who want to see what’s happening or relive some of the good-old-days from their own time in FFA. (photo from mnffafoundation.org)

Live stream will be hosted on the Minnesota FFA Foundation site:

mnffafoundation.org/livestreaming and will begin 30 minutes before the start of each session. Recordings of the sessions will be available to view after the session has occurred.

Live stream will be available for these sessions:

  • Reflections/Talent: Sunday, April 23, 2017 — 5:30 p.m.

 

  • Session 1: Monday, April 24, 2017 — 8:30 a.m.

 

  • Session 2: Monday, April 24, 2017 — 1:45 p.m.

 

  • Awards: Monday, April 24, 2017 — 6:30 p.m.

 

  • Session 3: Tuesday, April 25, 2017 — 8:45 a.m.

 

  • Session 4: Tuesday, April 25, 2017 — 12 p.m.

 

Visit mnffa.org for more details about the 88th Minnesota FFA convention. Follow along on social media and watch the general sessions at mnffafoundation.org/livestreaming

 

About Minnesota FFA

The FFA mission is to make a positive difference in the lives of students by developing their potential for premier leadership, personal growth and career success through agricultural education. More than 25,000 students in Minnesota are enrolled in agricultural education classes. Students who have taken three or more classes in career and technical education, including agricultural education have a graduation rate of 98.7 percent. Visit www.mnffa.org for more information.

 

MN Farmers Have Until May 5 to Renew CSP Contracts

Land Stewardship Project, CSP, Conservation stewardship programMinnesota farmers have until May 5 to re-enroll in the Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP). This renewal option is specifically for farmers and ranchers who enrolled in CSP initially in 2013. Farmers are encouraged to contact their local Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) office for more information on renewing (www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/national/contact/local).

CSP is a comprehensive working lands conservation program that provides technical and financial assistance to farmers and ranchers to actively manage and maintain existing conservation systems and to implement additional conservation activities on land in production. Through CSP, participants take steps to improve soil, water, air and habitat quality, and can also address energy conservation issues.

“CSP is a wonderful program,” said Jon Jovaag, a Land Stewardship Project farmer-member from Austin, Minn. Jovaag had a CSP contract in the past and plans on reapplying in 2017. “It helps farmers implement conservation practices over their entire farming operation.”

Land Stewardship Project, Conservation Stewardship Program, CSP

The Land Stewardship Project would like to remind Minnesota farmers that the renewal deadline for the Conservation Stewardship Program is May fifth. The renewal option is specifically for farmers that enrolled in CSP back in 2013. (photo from nrcs.usda.gov)

Program contracts, which are administered by the NRCS, last for five years, at which time they are eligible for renewal. There are approximately 7,000 U.S. farmers and ranchers with program contracts that will expire this year, totaling over 9.5 million acres. In Minnesota, there are 552 contracts expiring, totaling 387,331 acres.

It is optional to renew an expiring contract, and participants who do not re-enroll can always re-apply and compete for funding in future annual program signups. However, there is significant benefit to renewing now: the process for renewing is non-competitive and much simpler than re-applying through the competitive process later, and participants will avoid any gaps in their CSP payments that would otherwise occur.

NRCS has already mailed letters to all participants with contracts that are set to expire this year. Local NRCS offices will then follow up with producers to discuss renewal criteria and new conservation options. Participants will need to meet additional renewal criteria. Under the terms of the 2014 Farm Bill, program contract holders can renew their contracts provided they have met the terms of their initial contract, agree to adopt and continue to integrate conservation activities across the entire operation, and agree to either meet the stewardship threshold of at least two additional priority resource concerns or exceed the stewardship threshold of at least two existing priority resource concerns by the end of the renewed contract period.

Here’s a bit of a refresher course on the CSP if you’re thinking about doing it for the first time:

Minnesota FFA Convention April 23-25th

Next week, the University of Minnesota (UMN) St. Paul campus will be flooded with a sea of blue jackets, as nearly 4,000 student members gather for the 88th Minnesota FFA Convention, April 23-25.

Minnesota FFA

The blue jackets are about to descend on the University of Minnesota for the State FFA Convention April23-25 at the College of Food, Agricultural, and Natural Sciences on the St. Paul Campus. (photo from Rachel Marthaler Photography.)

During the convention, Minnesota FFA members compete in career development contests, attend sessions and workshops and receive awards for their FFA achievements. At this three-day event, high school FFA members also are introduced to the UMN community.

FFA is a national organization founded in 1928 that recognizes and supports the interests of food, fiber and natural resource industries and encompasses science, business and technology as it is applied to production agriculture. There are 30 different career development events (CDE) that students will compete in at the Minnesota FFA convention. The events include everything from forestry to agricultural sales. The FFA CDEs are just as diverse as the UMN’s College of Food,Agricultural and Natural Resource Sciences (CFANS) majors.

At the convention, FFA members meet UMN students, faculty and professors who are helping with competitions, workshops and other convention activities.

“The first time I came to the University of Minnesota was with my FFA chapter for convention,”said Wendy Bauman, FFA member from Kerkhoven Murdock Sunburg (KMS) Chapter. “Now I’m a freshman in CFANS studying agricultural education. FFA is what introduced me to the University of Minnesota and is the reason why I chose this school and major.”

Many University of Minnesota CFANS students share a similar story. Many past Minnesota FFA members have found a home on the St. Paul campus. The partnership between CFANS and Minnesota FFA has strengthened both organizations as they work toward a similar mission of preparing future leaders for their careers.

“Minnesota FFA plays a key role in youth development and leadership across the state,” said CFANS Dean Brian Buhr. “We are fortunate to have a strong relationship that benefits our programs and departments.”

Visit mnffa.org for more details about the 88th Minnesota FFA convention. Follow along on social media or watch the general sessions mnffafoundation.org/livestreaming.

Wondering just what kind of impact Minnesota FFA can make on students?

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About University of Minnesota College of Food, Agricultural and Natural Resource Sciences

The University of Minnesota’s College of Food, Agricultural and Natural Resource Sciences (CFANS), is one of the world’s leading research, education and outreach institutions in the natural resources, food and agricultural sciences. Its faculty, staff and students are dedicated to the enhancement and preservation of the world’s food supplies and natural resources. CFANS provides students the opportunity to enter career fields with some of the best job outlooks in the country, including 13 undergraduate majors and over 25 minors ranging from agricultural education and marketing communications to conservation biology and forest and natural resource management, to health and nutrition, and the future of food and agriculture management with a focus in business and technology. As part of this launch, the University will offer enhanced scholarships to Minnesota students, add additional recruitment events in Greater Minnesota and expand outreach to high school counselors and career centers across Minnesota.

About Minnesota FFA

 The FFA mission is to make a positive difference in the lives of students by developing their potential for premier leadership, personal growth and career success through agricultural education. More than 25,000 students in Minnesota are enrolled in agricultural education classes. Students who have taken three or more classes in career and technical education, including agricultural education have a graduation rate of 98.7 percent. Visit www.mnffa.org for more information.

 

 

Use fertilizers and pesticides with care in your yards this spring

Spring is here and many Minnesotans are thinking about their lawns, trees and gardens. Fertilizers and pesticides can be a useful management tool when used appropriately on these sites.

fertilizers and pesticides

The Minnesota Department of Agriculture wants to remind you to be careful when working on your lawns, trees, or gardens this spring. Make sure you keep product when it needs to be to avoid it washing into the water supply. (Photo from thespruce.com)

Whether you do it yourself or hire a professional, the Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) urges the safe use of fertilizers and pesticides by reading and following all label directions. In Minnesota, it is unlawful to apply products without following label instructions.

Follow these tips and have a safe and successful gardening season.

If you use pesticide and fertilizers yourself:

  1. Read and follow all label directions.
  2. Do not apply products in windy or adverse weather conditions that can cause products to drift and potentially harm people, pets, or plants.
  3. Sweep sidewalks and hard surfaces of unused product and reapply to their intended site. Pesticides left on these surfaces easily wash into our water supply.
  4. Buy only what you need to avoid leftovers. Unused fertilizers and pesticides can go bad quickly, they are difficult to dispose of and turn into a hazardous nuisance.

Do some homework if you hire a commercial applicator to treat your lawn and trees. Select a licensed professional that comes with experience and recommendations. Commercial applicators must show that they know how to use fertilizers and pesticides safely and properly before MDA awards them a license. When hiring a professional:

Ask to see their MDA issued license before they start work.

  1. Be wary of claims that products are completely safe, or of pressure to sign a long-term service contract.
  2. Recognize posted warning signs and avoid areas that have been chemically treated.
  3. Review the application record that shows what was used and how much was applied.
  4. Insist that sidewalks and hard surfaces are swept clean of product to protect our water supply.

For information about applicator licenses, call the MDA at 651-201-6615. To report unlicensed applicators, please file a complaint on the MDA website (www.mda.state.mn.us) or call 651-201-6333.

Consumers can call the Better Business Bureau at 800-646-6222 and check customer satisfaction histories for lawn care companies.

Here’s a few fertilizing tips from the Lawn Care Nut (Nice name, right?):

Meet the Oggun farm tractor

Oggun Farm Tractor

Southeast Minnesota residents got their first peek at the Oggun farm tractor at a viewing at Featherstone Farms of Rushford earlier this month. (Photo by Chad Smith)

It’s called the Oggun (Oh-goon), and it’s a different take on the farm tractor than many folks in agriculture may be used to. Southeast Minnesota residents got their first look at the new tractor during a showcase event at Featherstone Farms of Rushford on Wednesday, April 5.

 

The tractor was specifically designed for smaller farms, but that’s not what makes it unique. It’s unique in its design, it’s price, and the way it’s adaptable to newer technologies. The tractor has many unique characteristics, especially because it’s built with an open-source manufacturing design and parts you could find at a local tractor supply company. The idea for the tractor first began a short time ago.

The idea

Former IBM engineers and long-time business partners Horace Clemmons and Saul Berenthal (a Cuban-American) came together to form Alabama-based Cleber LLC. One day, Berenthal told Clemmons he wanted to do business back in his native country. The two talked over a lot of options, including software, but decided to go in a different direction.

“They started looking at things going on in the country,” said Locky Catron, a partner in Cleber, during opening remarks to the people in attendance, “and saw that the government had given land back to about 300,000 farmers, but there were only 60,000 tractors on the island.”

The tractors were all roughly 30 years old and of Russian design. Horace decided in June of 2015 that he and Saul were going to build tractors for Cuba. They needed to build something simple and easily fixed, because Cuban farmers were used to fixing everything themselves. They also needed to build something that was affordable. Mass production of tractors began in November of 2016.

The model

“That’s why they went to the open-source manufacturing model,” Catron said, “using all off-the-shelf parts. They designed the tractor based on the design of the Allis-Chalmers G. After doing all the work to put it together, the company realized business probably wasn’t going to happen in Cuba until the embargo is lifted.”

Once American farmers got wind of what Cleber was doing, they showed a lot of interest in the product as well. The business then set up shop in Paint Rock, Alabama, and began showing it to interested American farmers.

“I learned a valuable lesson from the Cuban farmers,” Clemmons said, “because they helped us understand how we can better serve farmers across the globe. $10,000 is still a lot of money to small farmers across the globe, so we have to create a business model where the price goes down every year.”

Cleber, LLC., told customers around the globe, including in Ethiopia, Peru, Chile, Brazil, and Australia, that they would give them the design of the tractor, which most companies don’t do. They agreed to ship parts that their customers couldn’t make in their countries with the idea that eventually the countries would take over the entire manufacturing process.

“We have offered a business proposition to our customers that says, ‘put me out of business,’” Clemmons said. “That’s about the only way we’re going to get 40-50 percent of the world’s smallest farmers equipped to do their work.”

People ask him how they expect to make money. His answer was a simple one.

“It’s called trust,” he said. “It’s called value-added. How hard would it be to use this technology and turn it into a skid steer? It’s got the engine, it’s got the hydraulics, so I’d take the tires off and put tracks on, and put a bucket on the front.”

He said they designed components to put together and they want to let people be creative in how they use those components.

The advantages

“Equipment (like tractors) is built using proprietary systems,” Catron said. “It’s unique components for a unique piece of equipment. We’re building the Oggun tractor that’s open-source, we’re building it using architectures, and we’re building it in the same way that technology is currently built today.”

Clemmons said the Oggun technology is simple, unique, practical, and it’s what small farmers need. Using off-the-shelf parts to build their tractors improves the local economies of their customers as well. The replacement parts can be found at local businesses like ag supply stores or auto parts stores.

“The parts don’t come painted certain colors, with patents on them, but instead they come out of the local economy,” Clemmons said. “All of that lowers the price over time because of the larger volume we get by using readily available components. Those components lower the price for everyone over time.”

Some of the specific tractor specs include a 19-horsepower Honda gas engine. The tractor length is just over 10 feet long and the weight is 1700 pounds. The brakes and the steering are hydraulic, with independent hydraulic drive. There’s also a unique zero-turn capability that comes with this tractor. It also has a 3-point hitch for implements. There’s also an optional PTO capability as well.

“It’s more than a tractor, the Oggun is a different way of thinking,” Clemmons added. More information is available at www.thinkoggun.com.

What’s next regarding NAFTA?

American agriculture will have a hard time succeeding without a solid trading relationship with other countries. Now that the Trans-Pacific Partnership is off the table, new President Donald Trump and his administration are now turning their attention to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It’s the first time an administration took a serious look at renegotiating at least parts of the deal since it was signed during the Clinton administration.

NAFTA, Free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico

The Trump Administration still has a goal of renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico in an attempt to make it more favorable for America. (photo from CNN Money)

The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture recently held their winter policy conference in Washington, D.C., and trade was one of the biggest topics of conversation. Nathan Bowen is the Director of Public Policy at NASDA. He says that NAFTA has been a very good thing for agriculture for a long time.

“U.S. agriculture depends on export opportunities for our livelihood,” Bowen said. “With the new administration, there’s a lot of talk about what’s going to happen on the international trade front.”

Bowen says NAFTA has been very important for U.S. farmers and ranchers, who depend on the markets in Canada and Mexico for significant parts of their livelihood. NASDA wants to make sure as the administration looks at redoing NAFTA, agriculture has a place at the table.

“We are working to make sure that agriculture keeps the gains they’ve made under NAFTA,” Bowen said, “and that we do take opportunities that are there to strengthen the agreement. Farmers send a whole range of commodities to markets in both Canada and Mexico.”

He says NAFTA has been good for a whole list of Ag sectors, including beef. U.S. beef exports to Mexico and Canada have almost tripled since the beginning of the agreement. It was a little over $600 million dollars back in 1994, rising to $1.9 billion as recently as 2015.

“The access that U.S. beef has enjoyed in both of those markets has really been important for the industry,” Bowen adds. “The same could be said for corn, with significant gains in that sector, and pork is another really good success story.”

Bowen adds that there really isn’t a timeline for negotiations between the three countries to begin but he’s hopeful it will start as soon as possible so that agriculture will know where it stands with market access to Canada and Mexico.

Here’s the complete conversation with Bowen:

Slow down the El Nino weather discussion

Social media can be a very handy tool for disseminating information quickly to a large number of people. News stories have been known to “go viral” from coast to coast and around the world faster than some would believe possible. For example, check out the words El Nino.

Unfortunately, it is the internet and no one is watching to make sure everything that goes up is the complete, 100% truth, especially when it comes to weather. A recent Twitter conversation really got the weather forecasters and their followers going when a reputable weather forecaster told his followers that El Nino would make a return to the global weather outlook in 2017.

El Nino

Here’s a diagram of what an El Nino weather pattern looks like, courtesy of SteamGreen.com.

Ryan Martin is a longtime broadcaster/meteorologist who wants the El Nino discussion to slow down a bit and he’s got plenty of reasons why. One of the biggest reasons is that El Nino is not a year-to-year event. And think about this: What happens if we do see an El Nino? What does that do to American weather? It turns things nice in the Corn Belt and we’d be seeing above-trend line yield numbers again. So, it’s not exactly the storm of the century causing death and destruction everywhere you turn.

“If you look at it from where we see warmer waters in the equatorial Pacific,” said Martin, “it’s not in the right spot. One gentleman that seems to have a fairly significant following put up a map that talked about El Nino coming back. He drew a triangle around an area of water off the northwest coast of South America. While it is warmer water in the equatorial Pacific, it’s not in the right spot.”

Another area he likes to look at for signs of El Nino is just off the Australian coast. He says there should be a significant pressure difference and easterly winds starting to develop. Those signs haven’t developed at all.

“I’m not going to completely rule out a return to El Nino at some point in the next year to two years,” Martin says, “but to talk about it coming right now and having a big-time effect on us is way out of line. Anybody trying to trumpet this is likely a fringe forecaster looking for notoriety.”