Coronavirus headlines disrupt commodities

Here’s the complete conversation with Arlan Suderman of INTL FCStone on the commodity markets reaction to the coronavirus outbreak.

Coronavirus headlines and the commodity markets. It’s been a while since we’ve seen the commodity markets this reactive to news headlines on an almost daily basis. While it’s not unheard of, one commodity expert says it’s been over a decade since the markets have been hit this hard by the news. Arlan Suderman is the Chief Commodities Analyst for INTL FCStone, talks about why the news coronavirus headlines seem to be playing havoc in the commodity markets.

“I think that’s a question a lot of people have these days,” Suderman says. “It’s a valid point to discuss.

Coronavirus
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Analyst at INTL FCStone says the commodity markets have been hit hard by news reports surrounding the coronavirus, as well as the resulting “fear outbreak” from people all over the world.

“I was initially downplaying the market reaction in January,” he recalled, “before doing some research at the end of that month. This is the type of virus that’s going to trigger a lot of fear in people. When you have that much fear, the fear of the coronavirus headlines will be worse than the threat of the virus itself.”

He points out that when people get afraid, they stay home, they don’t travel, and they don’t go out in public as much. That’s been the case in China as everywhere the disease has hotspot outbreaks, everybody stays home.

“Shanghai, a city of millions of people, is now a ghost town,” Suderman said. “Now we’re seeing pictures of that in lots of other places, including Italy.

“When people stay home and don’t go out, they tend to consume less food,” he added. “That includes consuming less meat and a lot more starches. Overall, it does tend to change consumption patterns a lot.”

People also consume less energy in these situations as they aren’t driving a lot while airlines are also canceling flights as people don’t want to travel. Less consumption in the energy markets hurts the biofuels markets as well.

Even things like shipping commodities get much more complicated as people are staying home, thanks to the coronavirus headlines. That’s been the case in China and is becoming prevalent in other countries too.

“People didn’t show up to work,” he said. “Ports become congested, ships don’t get unloaded, and shipping slows way down. That’s lost demand you likely don’t get back. You may get some of it back, but not all.

Renewable Fuels Debate Continues Unabated

Here’s the complete podcast with Scott Irwin of the University of Minnesota, talking about his solution to the squabble between ethanol and the oil industry over the Renewable Fuels Standard. You can download and listen to it later or play it here.
Renewable Fuels
Professor Scott Irwin at the University of Illinois has a potential solution to the fight in Washington D.C. surrounding the Renewable Fuels Standard

Renewable Fuels seem like such a good idea to me. After all, fossil fuels are a finite resource, right? We grow lots of corn and other biofuel feedstocks. Why can’t we use some of them to stretch our fuel supply even further into the future? That’s rhetorical, of course. Big Oil has lots of money. One University of Illinois Professor says that money has put Big Oil squarely in the driver’s seat with the Environmental Protection Agency.

The clash between the ethanol and oil industries over the Renewable Fuels Standard is continuing with no end in sight. Scott Irwin of the Agricultural and Consumer Economics Department at the University of Illinois says there may not be a “win-win” deal in a debate like this.

Irwin wrote an article on the University of Illinois’ farm doc daily website called “Clearing the Logjam on the RFS and SREs: A Simple Proposal.” His idea would divide the refiners into large and small operations, while the ethanol proponents are treated as one group.

By doing it that way, the Environmental Protection Agency won’t be waiving any future volumes of ethanol. He realizes that the large refiners won’t be happy with his proposal, which Irwin says restores what the RFS was originally designed to do.

Irwin says his solution would satisfy two-thirds of the people and groups involved in the debate, which might be the best we can do. By way of comparison, the current situation is a mess.

Again, Scott Irwin is with the University of Illinois. Follow the link here if you’d like to read his full report on the Farm Doc Daily website.

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