2017 drought continues to expand coverage area

Agriculture and weather go hand in hand. One (agriculture) watches the other (weather), while one (weather) has a big effect on the other (agriculture). Weather, specifically the 2017 drought, is hitting agriculture hard. That’s why it’s time to talk weather with my guy, Ryan Martin, who you can find at his personal website address, weatherstud.com. By the way, if you needed any more credibility, he’s also the Chief Meteorologist for the Hoosier Ag Today radio network in Indiana, so he’s established.

2017 drought

Meteorologist Ryan Martin, shown here giving a presentation at the 2017 American Farm Bureau Federation national convention, says there’s not much relief in sight for states hit hardest by the 2017 drought. (photo from twitter.com)

We’ve talked an awful lot about what’s going on with the 2017 drought in the Dakotas. Both North and South Dakota have suffered under immense heat and non-stop dry weather. What you may not realize is the coverage area of the drought is still expanding. While the focal point is at its worst in North and South Dakota, it’s also into a good deal of Montana (have you heard about the wildfires?) and well up into the Canadian prairies.

I caught up with Ryan on the phone while he was actually driving through the Canadian prairies for work, so he saw firsthand just how far north the 2017 drought went. The drought is in Saskatchewan and western Manitoba, where it’s been going on for some time now. The Saskatchewan wheat crop is starting to turn color but it’s not even at all. There are bands that actually look dead along the outside edges of some fields while still green in other places. The lack of rain has hit Canada’s wheat fields pretty hard.

The hardest hit areas are in what’s referred to as exceptional drought. In actual terms, that means many of the hardest hit areas have picked up .5-1.5 inches of rain over the past two months. In other words, not enough.

The biggest question is whether or not there’s any relief in sight, whether in the short or long term. Ryan describes it as a situation in which “dryness begets dryness.” Give a listen to the conversation.

 

Slow down the El Nino weather discussion

Social media can be a very handy tool for disseminating information quickly to a large number of people. News stories have been known to “go viral” from coast to coast and around the world faster than some would believe possible. For example, check out the words El Nino.

Unfortunately, it is the internet and no one is watching to make sure everything that goes up is the complete, 100% truth, especially when it comes to weather. A recent Twitter conversation really got the weather forecasters and their followers going when a reputable weather forecaster told his followers that El Nino would make a return to the global weather outlook in 2017.

El Nino

Here’s a diagram of what an El Nino weather pattern looks like, courtesy of SteamGreen.com.

Ryan Martin is a longtime broadcaster/meteorologist who wants the El Nino discussion to slow down a bit and he’s got plenty of reasons why. One of the biggest reasons is that El Nino is not a year-to-year event. And think about this: What happens if we do see an El Nino? What does that do to American weather? It turns things nice in the Corn Belt and we’d be seeing above-trend line yield numbers again. So, it’s not exactly the storm of the century causing death and destruction everywhere you turn.

“If you look at it from where we see warmer waters in the equatorial Pacific,” said Martin, “it’s not in the right spot. One gentleman that seems to have a fairly significant following put up a map that talked about El Nino coming back. He drew a triangle around an area of water off the northwest coast of South America. While it is warmer water in the equatorial Pacific, it’s not in the right spot.”

Another area he likes to look at for signs of El Nino is just off the Australian coast. He says there should be a significant pressure difference and easterly winds starting to develop. Those signs haven’t developed at all.

“I’m not going to completely rule out a return to El Nino at some point in the next year to two years,” Martin says, “but to talk about it coming right now and having a big-time effect on us is way out of line. Anybody trying to trumpet this is likely a fringe forecaster looking for notoriety.”