Slow down the El Nino weather discussion

Social media can be a very handy tool for disseminating information quickly to a large number of people. News stories have been known to “go viral” from coast to coast and around the world faster than some would believe possible. For example, check out the words El Nino.

Unfortunately, it is the internet and no one is watching to make sure everything that goes up is the complete, 100% truth, especially when it comes to weather. A recent Twitter conversation really got the weather forecasters and their followers going when a reputable weather forecaster told his followers that El Nino would make a return to the global weather outlook in 2017.

El Nino

Here’s a diagram of what an El Nino weather pattern looks like, courtesy of SteamGreen.com.

Ryan Martin is a longtime broadcaster/meteorologist who wants the El Nino discussion to slow down a bit and he’s got plenty of reasons why. One of the biggest reasons is that El Nino is not a year-to-year event. And think about this: What happens if we do see an El Nino? What does that do to American weather? It turns things nice in the Corn Belt and we’d be seeing above-trend line yield numbers again. So, it’s not exactly the storm of the century causing death and destruction everywhere you turn.

“If you look at it from where we see warmer waters in the equatorial Pacific,” said Martin, “it’s not in the right spot. One gentleman that seems to have a fairly significant following put up a map that talked about El Nino coming back. He drew a triangle around an area of water off the northwest coast of South America. While it is warmer water in the equatorial Pacific, it’s not in the right spot.”

Another area he likes to look at for signs of El Nino is just off the Australian coast. He says there should be a significant pressure difference and easterly winds starting to develop. Those signs haven’t developed at all.

“I’m not going to completely rule out a return to El Nino at some point in the next year to two years,” Martin says, “but to talk about it coming right now and having a big-time effect on us is way out of line. Anybody trying to trumpet this is likely a fringe forecaster looking for notoriety.”