Spring: when does it get here?

Spring weather is always a fun conversation across farm country, whether in the local coffee shop, after church, or during a sidewalk stroll down any small-town street in America. I came across a recent article from the National Weather Service saying that March might have above-normal temperatures and was intrigued. So, I got on the phone for an assignment from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting and began digging.

My first phone call was to Dennis Todey, the director of the Midwest Climate Hub in Ames, Iowa. As far as the March forecast goes, the veteran meteorologist says it depends on one thing: location, location, and location.

“The farther north you go, the less chance you have of being above normal during March,” Todey said. “But we should begin to rebound fairly quickly after the recent cold stretch that brought snow into parts of the Upper Midwest.”

Spring weather
Dennis Todey is the director of the Midwest Climate Hub in Ames, Iowa. (photo from climatehubs.usda.gov)

What you may not know is most of the cold that covered parts of the Upper Midwest was originally supposed to stay well to the north, especially up in Canada. Some of that cold worked its way into the North Central U.S., but it’s been limited mainly to the areas with snow cover.

As you go further west in the Northern Plains, there is less snow cover, so the temps haven’t been quite as cold. “The probabilities are not big, but the possibility of some warmer temperatures is there,” Todey said.

Looking out beyond March to the spring weather forecast, again, it all depends on which location you’re referring to. Out in the Eastern Corn Belt from Central Illinois and further east, they’ve had several storm events move through the area. The outlook in that location continues to look wet there.

“Planting delays are definitely on the radar in that location,” Todey said.

It’s the opposite in the Central and Southern Plains, where drought conditions have steadily grown worse in recent months as it’s been a dry and warm winter. The big question is whether the area is going to get any moisture anytime soon.

“It’s going to be interesting in the eastern Dakotas and parts of Minnesota,” he said. “They got some moisture late last year and recently picked up some recent snow as well.

“Places like Missouri and Iowa are more of a mixed bag right now,” he said. “Iowa still has some carryover dry soils, and then we have some dry soils in parts of Wisconsin in areas that keep missing out on moisture events.”

Speaking of dry weather, a good-sized part of rural America is short of moisture. The shortage in the plains begins in Nebraska and stretches to the south. It’s dry to very dry, but the lack of moisture doesn’t stop there.

“Parts of Iowa and Wisconsin are quite dry,” Todey said. “It’s quite dry in northern Illinois, which is a carryover from last year. Depending on which part you’re talking about, parts of the Dakotas had moisture while others didn’t get enough moisture for runoff for ponds and dugouts from a livestock standpoint.”

The winter wheat crop is really struggling because of the dry weather. The spring weather forecast hopefully has some moisture in it to help the wheat crop to at least somewhat rebound from the poor conditions.

As winter begins to wind down and spring gets closer, Todey has noticed an interesting trend in recent years when it comes to winter weather. Up here in Minnesota, we were able to take the dog for a walk in short sleeves or light jackets into November of 2021, which is almost becoming more of the norm rather than the exception.

“Winter has been showing up later than normal in recent years,” he said after some thought on the matter. “Let me frame this climatologically for you.

“The 90 coldest days on average for most of the Upper Midwest are typically December, January, and February,” Todey said. “That’s based on looking at data over the last 30 years. We’ve seen some of the coldest events of the winter occurring in late February.”

While late-winter snow isn’t uncommon, the larger events have been coming later and later, so “something is going on that’s a little different.”

Weather forecasting looks dry in farm country

Weather forecasting is always an interesting, sometimes confusing, and occasionally a hotly debated topic. No one is more confused than I am. How do you go from an all but snowless winter to 6-8 inches on the ground a couple days before Christmas? I would have been more than happy with a brown Christmas.

weather forecasting
Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, wears a lot of hats. Grain trader, farmer origination specialist, farmer, and ag meteorologist. He’s the Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today. (Photo from hoosieragtoday.com)

But I digress. The dry weather isn’t a good thing for farm country. For the most part, it seems awfully dry from coast to coast across the U.S. So, when I’ve got questions about the weather, I give Ryan Martin a call over in Indiana. I worked for him over a couple of years, helping him to get his weather forecasting ready to be sent to clients. He’s one of the best forecasters I’ve ever come across and I’ve known several of them.

It’s been a dry winter for the most part in U.S. farm country. A pre-Christmas snowfall turned things white in many areas but did little to alleviate the dry conditions. Ryan Martin is an ag meteorologist who lives in Warsaw, Indiana, and says December was well-below average in terms of moisture.

“All things considered, the precipitation that happened in mid-to-late-December didn’t even get the month of December up to near normal over most of the Upper Midwest, Eastern Corn Belt, Great Lakes, and I’ll even throw parts of the Central Corn Belt in there. Overall, we are still well below normal, and the blanket of snow is uninspiring to me at this point.”

He does some weather forecasting for the Upper Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt.

“Temperatures continue to be well-above-normal. By the time we get to January 15-16, we’ll have put enough days in far enough above normal that it’s going to be difficult to see any kind of cold snap bring the entire month back to below-normal levels. Cold air is pooling in Canada, and weather forecasting says it’s going to come down. I don’t think the second half of January will look anything like the first but is it enough to say January is going to flip to cold all over for the entire month? No way, it’s not going to happen.”

There will likely be some cold air incursions into early February, but he doesn’t see any extended cold snaps after that. The Central and Southern Plains will continue to see above-normal temperatures more often than not.

“We’re spending many more days above normal than we are below. Our concern in the Plains is this continued dry stretch.  The overall conditions are not lending themselves to seeing any kind rain come through, or even snow for that matter. We did see a nice blanket of snow in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma out of a winter event a couple of weeks back, but the effects of that are gone now. The wheat greened up a little bit, but I see nothing that says we’re looking at a huge surge of moisture at all over the next 2-3 months.”

Things will likely stay dry and warm in the Delta and the Southeastern States.

“We do have a documented La Nina situation going on. We can see that first of all, from the data coming from the Pacific, but you can see the effects happening down in South America. So, I think as you look into the Gulf Coast states like the lower Delta, we’re already trying to talk about planting or at least getting ready for it here in the next six weeks. I think we’re going to be trending a little bit wet and active, but I guess I’m not concerned about any early hurricane events or anything that will cause a long-term issue in the Deep South. If anything, we’re going to be trending slightly drier there as well.”

The western U.S. will stay dry too.

“Over the Western U.S., generally speaking, we continue to see below-normal precipitation there, and at this point, I don’t see anything that changes that. The high elevations are not seeing any kind of influx of moisture, so I don’t think that fuels anything. I do believe the West Coast is going to stay dry, and La Nina usually helps to fuel that. I’m not going to put this all on a La Nina forecast, but to me, I don’t see anything that says we’re looking at exceptionally-good conditions over the West.”

Again, Ryan Martin is an ag meteorologist from Indiana.

Spring Planting Waiting for Drier Weather

By Chad Smith

Farm country is getting closer and closer to spring planting. Farmers are starting to look at their planters longingly, dreaming of being out in the field. After a wet winter that resulted in serious flooding problems, the nation’s midsection is looking for a spell of dry weather. However, ag meteorologist Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, says planters are likely going to sit a spell yet. It’s important to remember that we’re way too early to think about seriously-delayed spring planting.

“It probably going to be late this month or early into next month before planters get rolling,” Martin said. “It’s way too early to start thinking about serious spring planting delays. We’re actually not even at first planting dates in a large part of the Corn Belt yet.

Heartland Forecast

“As I look at the pattern stretching all the way from the Great Plains through the Corn Belt, we’ve got a big weather system that wants to move through late this weekend (Sunday, April 7 possibly through early Tuesday the 9th). There won’t be a lot of good drying time after that running through the end of the week.”

After that, there’s another system in the 11-to-16-day forecast that may have 1-3 inches of rain coming across all the key growing areas. Martin says, flooding and current situation aside, the forecast doesn’t give farmers enough of a window in there to really start spring planting en masse.

Spring Planting
The Elkhorn River in Nebraska is way over its banks, covering up a lot of farm ground in Nebraska. Spring planting is likely to be delayed in a large part of the Midwest and Corn Belt because of flooding just like this. (Photo from Omaha.com)

Parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri have been devastated by flooding this spring, and the dry weather farmers are looking for really isn’t going to happen. “I don’t think so,” he said. “The way the pattern looks over the next 10 days, I’m counting two systems that come through. One won’t have a huge amount of rain, but the second one could bring as much as a quarter-inch to as much as 1.25 inches.

“Normally at this time of year that would be good news,” Martin added. “But, the way things are set up right now it’s just not good.”

Southern Plains/Delta

There are some planters rolling deeper in the Southern Plains and in the Delta. Martin said the weather pattern in that part of the country shows that farmers may have to dodge some thunderstorms in order to keep spring planting going forward.

“Fronts will be coming through but as they do, they won’t hit everyone at the same time,” he said. “Over the next three weeks or so, those storms will end up with about 60-70 percent coverage at any given time. It doesn’t look too excessive to me right now. It’ll be a hodgepodge type of activity that should eventually allow crops into the ground and then get the crops the kind of rainfall they need to get going.”

The pattern for the heaviest rains wants to stay a little farther north into the Central Plains and the Missouri Valley Corn Belt areas. The interesting area to watch will be the far east part of the Deep South, where the likelihood of getting the crop in the ground on time is pretty good.

“Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and up into Tennessee are places where temperatures might lag a little behind normal,” Martin said. “There could be some thunderstorm development but I’m not quite as bullish on rain or bearish on getting spring planting in the Deep South done as I am farther north.”

Potential Flooding Possible in Upper Midwest

There won’t be as much happening in the western states in terms of precipitation like there will be in other parts of the country. The biggest story in the western U.S. won’t be in terms of new systems moving through. It’ll more likely involve snowpack runoff. The interesting thing about snowpack runoff is the problems won’t necessarily be just out west.

“The Red River likely will hit major flood stage in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota,” he said. “There is snowpack that goes all the way back up into Montana and into the northern Rockies. The biggest question is just how fast we’ll see that snow melt and move through the area.

“The question is whether we’ll see a fast snowmelt with temps above normal,” he added. “That could be the story more than new systems coming through. Temperatures are still a little squirrely as temps likely will lag behind normal due to all that snowpack that still sits on the ground in those areas I mentioned.”

Here’s the entire conversation:

The Weather stud’s weather forecast

The weather forecast. You know you’re paying extra attention if you live in the Upper Midwest as I do (Minnesota and any of the surrounding states). Simply put, you’re wondering when the white stuff falling from the sky will finally end. After all, it’s getting really hard to find places to pile the extra snow when it’s time to shovel (or snow blow) the driveway. So, I figured it was time to call up my favorite weather guy, Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, to get a weather forecast of what’s coming for different areas of the country in late winter and early spring.

Weather forecast
Ag meteorologist Ryan Martin speaks during a recent event. Martin is the Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today. (photo from hoosieragtoday.com)

“From Iowa and northward through the Upper Midwest, it’s been a very snow-filled winter to this point,” he said. “We’ve exceeded total snowfall amounts in our forecasts by a little bit. One thing you need to note is the fact that it’s still February.

“We generally expect the snowfall patterns to gradually start to ease up in mid-to-late March,” he added. “I think we’re going to be on track to see that this year. Am I calling for an immediate stoppage of now? No. What I do see is temps switching from below normal to normal to slightly above normal. You’ll see more rain mixing in with the snow as March progresses.”

In the weather forecast for the eastern Corn Belt, including the Ohio River Valley, Indiana, Ohio, and the Great Lakes Region, Martin says things take a more active turn as February turns into early March. There’s going to be some “excessive” precipitation moving through that area.

“Temps are going to be on a roller coaster,” Martin said. “We had the brutal cold snap a few weeks ago but are now transitioning into a period during which temps will average out to normal. But, keep in mind that means you could be ten degrees above normal one day and ten below the next day. I’m seeing a lot of rain in the eastern Corn Belt region, which will have a big impact on Ohio River levels, mid-and-lower-Mississippi River levels, and even the Illinois River levels.

Find out Ryan’s weather forecast for the Plains States, the Delta region, as well as the western United States forecast.