Trade | Field 2 Field

February 8, 2022February 8, 2022

Planting questions in 2022

Planting questions abound here in the late stages of winter. How many acres of corn, soybeans, wheat, and other crops will get planted in 2022? The acreage battle is a hot topic of conversation in the markets and in coffee shops across rural America. This year’s acreage battle is far from over and actually began last year.

That’s the opinion of Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain in Nashville, Tennessee. The long-time market expert says this has gone on for months for a variety of reasons, led by fertilizer issues.

“Even going back to last fall, the market was very aware of upcoming fertilizer challenges,” he said on the phone from his Nashville office. “It was widely known that fertilizer prices were rising rapidly and would have an impact on this year’s acreage mix.”

He said for a moment in time, they saw the ratios and new-crop prices seem to favor corn. It appeared the market was trying to buy corn acreage back because of the potential of losing acres due to fertilizer prices. The fact of the matter is no one has a clue what the crop rotations are going to look like.

“There are several well-respected analysts like the University of Illinois that had an estimate of 96 million corn acres,” he said. “That would be an increase near 2.5 million over last year.

“And then, Farm Futures did a customer survey and came away with an estimate of 90 million acres,” he added. “The difference between 96 million and 90 million acres in terms of pricing implications, balance sheets, and fundamentals is phenomenal. Those are two totally-different markets and totally-different worlds.”

In any given year, Vaclavik says trying to predict or estimate what the acreage will be is a near-impossible task. Occasionally, someone will predict accurate numbers, but no one is consistently accurate. There are always “curveballs,” and this year will feature more curveballs than ever.

“This uncertainty doesn’t just apply to corn and soybean acres,” he said. “You have another bunch of crops that also make money for farmers. Spring wheat makes money; oats make money; small grains make money.”

The “other piece of the pie” among the planting questions is that principle crop acreage has trended lower for the last 7-8 years. Things are in a state of flux, and he feels the unknown might actually be more supportive than not for the markets. The fertilizer question and its impact depends on where you’re located.

“I’ve talked to people who have their fertilizer needs covered, and they feel good about the situation,” Vaclavik says. “The thing is that most farmers really don’t want to change their rotations. I did a survey of my customers a while back and most said they’re rarely in favor of switching rotations, if ever.

“If they can stick to their rotations, that’s what they’ll do,” he added. “But it still could be tricky.”

Even a farmer who’s already locked in their fertilizer for the 2022 season can still run into fertilizer problems. Actually, getting the physical delivery of that product could be a different story because of serious supply chain issues.

Corn is also a more input-intensive crop, so farmers can’t have their fertilizer not show up when it’s time get moving on spring planting. While not everyone is going to struggle to get fertilizer, there is still a risk going into springtime. Consequently, fertilizer will be a major deciding factor in answering those planting questions.

Small grains could be an interesting topic in the spring. Vaclavik says he would not be surprised to see more spring grains in the acreage mix. One thing that people might not be talking about a lot is some of the northern United States and even into Canada are still experiencing drought.

“Things are still dry in the Dakotas and over the border in Canada,” Vaclavik said. “They are still in a drought, and that will be an additional factor when it comes to acreage. It all depends on what farmers are comfortable planting into the dry conditions. I know it’s not as bad as last summer, but there is still a drought in that region.

“I haven’t seen a year like this in recent memory where it’s so hard to predict the answers to the planting questions that we’re asking,” he added.

October 11, 2021October 11, 2021

Harvest 2021 deep dive shows variability

Harvest 2021 is proceeding along at a good pace. Mike Zuzolo is the Founder and President of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas. He took a deep dive last week into the crop progress numbers and found a lot of variability in the results.

“Comparing the pace of the corn harvest 2021 versus the pace of the soybean harvest suggests that the corn yields are indeed a little more variable than beans,” Zuzolo said. “I hate to say lowered because of the issues that we’re seeing with the yields coming in. We’re seeing very good, very top-end yields coming in down in Kansas and Nebraska.

“My business clients and subscribers say strong yields are coming in through certain parts of Illinois,” he added. “However, my question is whether they’re top-end yields. Probably 90 percent of the producers I work with throughout Nebraska and Kansas would say ‘yes,’ we have top-end corn yields, and we’re close to wrapping up. However, central Illinois and central Indiana are probably around 50 percent complete, by comparison.”

Illinois and Indiana farmers are probably close to 75 percent done with soybean harvest 2021, but recent rainfall has slowed them down a bit. His clients in both states are saying they have top0-end yields in just 25 percent of their corn, but everything else is above average.

He thinks the numbers are showing the corn yields are more variable, especially because our corn and soybeans both have low moisture content. Six of the top 18 corn-producing states are at 50 percent or greater on corn harvest. About 29 percent of the national harvest 2021 is done compared to 24 percent at the same time last year.

“Those kinds of numbers are completely upside down when it comes to the soybean harvest,” Zuzolo said. “Just two of the 18 major soybean-producing states are at 50 percent or greater on harvest pace. The national soybean harvest is at 35 percent compared to 34 percent at the same time in 2020.”

Here’s the rest of the conversation.

September 24, 2021September 24, 2021

Banks worry about funding mechanism in Infrastructure Package

Banks across America would like to let you know about a small provision in the massive 3.5 trillion-dollar infrastructure package trying to make its way through Congress and get to the president’s desk. That’s a big piece of legislation to pay for, and one way that Democrats behind the bill want to fund it involves the IRS and your bank accounts. All of the bank accounts.

Paul Merski is the Executive Vice President of Congressional Relations and Strategy for the Independent Community Bankers of America. He said one way the administration wants to foot the bill for the infrastructure legislation is “horrible.”

“They would have the IRS look into everyone’s bank account transactions,” Merski said. “The legislation will force all banks to report on any transaction going into or out of an account worth 600 dollars or more. What it means is every account in America will then get monitored by the IRS as banks are forced to send in your information.”

To generate revenue like legislators envision to help pay the cost, Merski said the IRS will basically be assuming that most everyone in America is a “tax cheat.” It’s going to involve banks across the country sending in large amounts of information to the IRS, who will then have to sort through all of it to figure out what’s happening in each account.

The accounts in question include savings accounts, checking accounts, business accounts, personal and business loans, cash transactions, and even international transactions. To find any potential infractions, the IRS would be looking for a needle in a haystack.

“What we’re fearful of is this idea is going to cause a lot of false audits, a lot of false positives, and a lot of white noise,” he said. “The IRS will then be able to subpoena additional information on people’s accounts, to freeze people’s accounts, to garnish people’s accounts if there’s a dispute with the IRS.

“It’s crazy,” Merski added. “They pretend that they are going after millionaires and billionaires, and our question is, why then, do they need everyone’s account transactions sent to the IRS? The last thing we need is to be sending more information and more data to the IRS.”

This is especially concerning for rural bankers. He points out that community banks do 80 percent of all the agricultural lending in the nation, as well as over 50 percent of all the small business lending. They want customers to know that if this goes through, those banks are going to have to report all of your financial transactions, even loan information, to the IRS.

The Independent Community Banks of America are concerned about the privacy of bank accounts across the country.

“We’re worried that our customers don’t know what’s happening with this proposal,” Merski said. “We want you to know it’s not the bank’s idea to be sending all this information to the IRS. It’s the IRS, the Treasury Department, and the administration demanding that the banks report all these transactions.”

He says the typical small business owner, farmer, or rancher has to know about this idea and understand what’s happening in Washington, D.C. They also want farmers, ranchers, and small business owners to weigh in on the topic.

“If this is something that concerns you like it concerns our community bankers, you need to contact your congressmen and senators,” Merski said. “This is overkill: This is a dragnet, and this is the IRS looking to profile people based on their transactions.

“This is a stop-and-frisk against average Americans,” he added. “It’s going to add a lot of cost and compliance burdens against both bankers and the general public.”

August 18, 2021August 18, 2021

Canadian agriculture hit hard by drought

Canadian agriculture has something big in common with U.S. producers this year.

In fact, Canada and the U.S. have more in common than just a border. The two countries are also sharing a lot of hot, dry weather. Shaun Haney of RealAg is an agricultural journalist and broadcaster in Canada who says the longtime trading partners are in the same boat.

Shaun Haney of RealAg is an agricultural journalist and writer covering Canadian agriculture, which has been hit hard by drought. (Photo from YouTube.com)

“Absolutely yes,” he said on the phone from his office. “The drought of 2021 in Northern Ontario and the Western Canadian Prairies has been compared to the drought in 1988. This summer has been extremely hot and dry.

“It’s obviously hurt the crop conditions,” Haney added. “In some ways, it’s even more urgently impacted the grasslands and pastures, which is forcing producer discussions on the future of the Canadian cow herd after this fall, depending on what the level of cow cull will be.”

The drought isn’t just confined to 2021. As with many dry areas in the States, the drought stretches back to last fall. Haney noted that many Canadians were saying that “you don’t lose the crop in March.” However, they could have used moisture at that time, which they didn’t get.

“It was so dry that we’d used up a lot of our subsoil moisture last year,” he recalled. “We needed to replenish that moisture through the winter, and it didn’t happen. As we made our way into the growing season and the weeks passed, the rain just didn’t come.”

Severe drought is making things tough on Canadian agriculture. (Photo from globalnews.ca)

As the rain continued to hold off, the area listed on the Drought Monitor began to expand. Early in the year, the drought ran in a tight band along the U.S.-Canada border, especially in the Southern Prairies of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. At the same time, that drought also affected North Dakota and Montana early on in the U.S.

“As the weeks went by, the drought-impacted area continued to make its way further and further north,” Haney recalled. “It created a situation where the yields became more questionable on an increasing number of acres. The frustrating thing is some of those same fields started 2021 in great condition.”

The crops didn’t get the rain they needed for any consistent grain fill. Haney is located in Lethbridge, Alberta, and said a lot of the dryland in Canadian agriculture never had a chance. He described the 2021 Canadian growing season in one word: heartbreaking.

Crops hit by this year’s drought run the entire spectrum in Canada. Some crops handle adversity better than others, including chickpeas and lentils. However, Canadian farmers are especially concerned about the wheat and canola crops.

“I would say it’s even more so with canola,” Haney said. “From what I’ve heard, there are a lot of people harvesting some pretty light barley. But canola is the one where people are concerned they won’t have the yield. Canola is a fairly small seed, but it shouldn’t look like pepper.”

Canadian farmers do grow some soybean in Manitoba, where farmers may harvest bushels worth as little as $15. Producers also grow a little grain corn in Manitoba, as well as some in southern Alberta, that’s fed to livestock. Almost all of that corn is irrigated.

“There are some irrigated sugar beets in Alberta that are looking good as well,” he adds. “However, the list of struggling dryland crops is a long one.”

Haney says the one possible saving grace is good commodity prices. If prices were low during a drought like this, that would be the mother of all discouraging situations. He notes that if canola is around 20 dollars and you have ten bushels in the field, that’s 200 dollars an acre.

“It’s not a moneymaker on dry land, but it’s a lot better than a market with nine dollars,” he added. “This boils down to Mother Nature not cooperating with us, and it’s one of the variables that are out of our control.

“I can’t even imagine what it would have been like going through a drought like this in the 1930s and ‘40s when we weren’t in a minimum-till situation,” Haney said. “Thankfully, most of our fields are minimum or zero-tillage, which helps to conserve as much moisture as possible. It’s a good reminder of why we change our practices in Canadian agriculture out here on the prairies.”

Find out more about Shaun Haney and everything going on in Canadian agriculture at https://www.realagriculture.com.

August 13, 2021August 13, 2021

Southern border farmers fear for safety

Southern border farmers are afraid of being overwhelmed. The wide-open southern border of the United States has been a political hot potato for some time. Ag reporters found out how serious the problem is during a press conference called by the American Farm Bureau. Zippy Duvall, the organization’s president, took a tour of farms along the southern border and was appalled at what he saw there.

The tour came about because the American Farm Bureau got alerted by some of their state Farm Bureau organizations that sit on the border, including Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico, about the challenges farmers are facing. They wrote to the national headquarters asking for help because the situation is quickly getting out of control.

“A couple of months ago, the state Farm Bureaus reached out to me expressing the need for some help with the issues they’re facing along the border,” Duvall said during a recent press conference. “Because of that, we put together a letter to President Biden about our concerns.”

It shows how seriously Farm Bureau is taking the problem when all 50 state Farm Bureaus and the Puerto Rican Farm Bureau quickly signed on to the letter. The letter resulted in a phone call between the Farm Bureau state presidents and representatives from the administration to talk about the problems.

Once that phone call ended, Duvall decided the next step was to get a look at what was happening there. He’s always enjoyed getting out at the grassroots level and hear what’s happening on the nation’s farms. Duvall says emphatically that he’s “seen how serious the situation is for American farmers” along the border, calling it heartbreaking.

“Of course, they’ve experienced people coming across our border for decades,” he said. “But it’s never been at the level we see today. Our farmers and ranchers are worried about their safety, as well as the safety of their families and employees. They’re worried about the security of their property, including their farm machinery and equipment.”

Several farmers along the border have had their homes looted, their fences torn down numerous times, which costs a lot of money to fix, and their water sources have been tampered with and compromised. He says it’s a humanitarian crisis that needs attention immediately.

“The serious problem isn’t just affecting the lives of our farmers and ranchers: it’s also hurting many people coming across the border,” Duvall said. “We’ve heard discussions about farmers and ranchers who found dead bodies on their operations. Not everyone who comes over the border survives the journey.

“It’s been heartbreaking to see and experience everything over the last couple of days,” Duvall added.

Duvall went through Texas with Russell Boening, the Texas State President. As a farmer living in a state along the southern border, Boening said they’ve never seen an influx of people like they’re seeing in 2021.

Russell Boening, Texas Farm Bureau President, says officials along the southern border fear being overwhelmed by the influx of immigrants. (Photo from flickr.com)

“We went through McAllen, which is down in the Valley of Texas, and then we went upriver to Del Rio,” Boening said. “Those are two different areas facing different issues because of the same problem.

“The vast majority of people coming into McAllen include family units, unaccompanied minors, all of whom are turning themselves in to Border Patrol Agents and other authorities,” he said. “The number is overwhelming the capability of the Border Patrol to process and keep track of them to service their basic needs. And what do you do when these folks come in with COVID?”

Boening said the local NGOs are trying to set up places for people who have COVID to stay. The problem is they don’t have to stay at those places. They are “encouraged” to stay, but they aren’t required to. Multiple people are carrying COVID into the country unabated.

The situation is a little different in Del Rio, Texas. Some people are coming in seeking asylum. However, many of them are trying not to get caught. Those folks are sneaking through people’s property, including many farms and ranches.

“It’s a different demographic of people coming through the Del Rio area,” Boening said. “They’re in larger numbers and much more aggressive, often carrying backpacks and wearing camouflage.

“There’s the humanitarian issue of some folks who don’t make it where they’re trying to go,” he added. “They often run out of water, or the energy needed to finish the journey. Sometimes they’re found alive, but many times they aren’t.”

The Sheriff in Hidalgo County, where McAllen is located, put it simply: “This is not sustainable.”

Boening says there’s a sense of fear, desperation, and helplessness among the officials trying to deal with the situation along the border.

Craig Ogden, President of the New Mexico Farm Bureau, also says there’s a sense of desperation in New Mexico. Law enforcement officials, including the Border Patrol, are in desperate need of resources.

New Mexico Farm Bureau President Craig Ogden says Border Patrol officials are overwhelmed and afraid of being overwhelmed by immigration. (photo usnews.com)

“Technology is available to put out sensors along the border, but they need funds to make those purchases,” Ogden said. “They need a lot of resources, and you can feel the frustration of these people just trying to do their jobs.

“This is an ongoing problem that needs to be addressed and can’t be kicked down the road anymore,” he added. “Don’t forget this is also a biosecurity concern, including diseases carried by people entering the country and that can go back and forth among humans and livestock.”

So, what is Farm Bureau’s message? Duvall said it’s time for Washington, D.C., to start securing the nation’s border.

“That’s what my message is to Congress and the administration,” Duvall said. “It’s time to uphold the laws of the land. It’s close to getting out of hand.”

July 29, 2021July 29, 2021

Ag Economy Turnaround Came Quickly

Ag economy. Have two words ever been gloomier in rural America than they’ve been for the last several years? Well, we’ve had a bit of a turnaround, but my assignment was to find out not only the current state but what might be ahead in the future.

So, I gave Dave Widmar of Agricultural Economic Insights in West Lafayette, Indiana, a call to find out more about the ag economy. He has more than enough experience to make a rational judgment. Before launching out on his own, Dave was a researcher in the Economics Department at Purdue University, as well as the economist for the Kansas Department of Agriculture.

The first thing he told me was that the ag economy turned around quickly. “Not only is it a big difference from 2020 to 2021, but the turnaround also took place in a short period of time,” he said on the phone from his Indiana office. “Last summer, the outlook was very bleak, and it was hard to put together a list of positive things going on.

“Now, just past the midpoint of 2021, we have a very strong outlook with a long list of positive things going for us,” he added. “The biggest piece is higher commodity prices, which have really turned around.”

That turnaround didn’t start until last September, and it has played out quickly over the past several months. That rise in commodity prices has been especially good for corn and soybean producers.

While it’s not as true as it was earlier in 2021, another thing the ag economy and farmers were benefitting from was a low-cost environment. “Over the last six months, fertilizer went from about $9 an acre in the fall of 2020 to between $130 and $140 an acre today,” Widmar says. “Farmland values and cash rental rates have increased as well. But it’s important to recognize that last year and early in 2021, the lower cost structure helped profitability.”

Here’s the rest of the conversation:

June 10, 2021June 10, 2021

Water Rule Reversal a Blow to Agriculture

Water is a touchy subject, especially when it comes to our agriculture and environmental discussions these days. I have to admit that I was worried about this from day one. The Environmental Protection Agency announced it intends to reverse the Navigable Waters Protection Rule.

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall his organization is very concerned about the idea and its potential impact on the nation’s farmers.

“The American Farm Bureau Federation is extremely disappointed in the Environmental Protection Agency’s announcement that it intends to reverse the environmentally conscious Navigable Waters Protection Rule,” Duvall says, “which finally brought clarity and certainty to clean water efforts. Farmers and ranchers care about clean water and preserving the land, and they support the Navigable Waters Protection Rule.

“Administrator Regan recently recognized the flaws in the 2015 ‘Waters of the U.S. Rule’ and pledged not to return to those overreaching regulations,” he added. “We are deeply concerned that the EPA plans to reverse the Navigable Waters Protection Rule, which puts the future of responsible protections at risk. We expected extensive outreach, but today’s announcement fails to recognize the concerns of farmers and ranchers.”

Duvall, a third-generation Georgia farmer, says this is an important moment for EPA Administrator Michael Regan and will be pivotal to his ability to earn the trust of farmers on this and other administration priorities. Duvall says the EPA boss must “keep his word” to recognize the efforts of agriculture and not return to flawed, overly-complicated and excessive regulations.

“We call on the EPA to respect the statute, recognize the burden that overreaching regulation places on farmers and ranchers, and not write the term ‘navigable’ out of the Clean Water Act” Duvall says. “On this issue, and particularly prior converted croplands and ephemerals, we also urge Secretary Vilsack to ensure that we don’t return to the regulatory land grab that was the 2015 ‘WOTUS’ Rule.

Duvall adds that clean water and clarity are paramount, which is why farmers shouldn’t need a team of lawyers and consultants to farm.

From a personal perspective, why can’t we meet in the middle here? You do realize that farmers don’t get to stay in business and pass on the operation to their kids if they don’t take care of their environment?

Am I anti-environment by being concerned about farmers? I’m not. I’m saying there has to be a way to preserve the environment and still allow farmers to make money. After all, they do feed us, remember? Food doesn’t just show up at Safeway.

May 3, 2021May 3, 2021

Farm State of Mind mental health website goes live

Farm State of Mind in recent years can be summed up in one word: stress. While things are starting to turn around due to higher commodity prices, it doesn’t mean farmers are out of the woods yet.

In recognition of May as Mental Health Month, the American Farm Bureau Federation launched a comprehensive, easy-to-use online directory of resources for farmers, ranchers and their families who are experiencing stress and mental health challenges.

The directory, which is on the Farm State of Mind website at farmstateofmind.org, features listings for crisis hotlines and support lines, counseling services, training opportunities, podcasts, videos, published articles and other resources in every U.S. state and Puerto Rico. Listings for crisis support, counseling and behavioral health resources that are available nationwide are also included.

“For far too long, farmers and ranchers have been trying to cope with increasing levels of stress on their own,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “Our Farm State of Mind campaign is encouraging conversations about stress and mental health in farming and ranching communities. It is so important to spread the word that no one has to go it alone.

“This new online directory of stress and mental health resources in every state gives farmers, ranchers and rural communities a user-friendly, one-stop shop to find services in their area that can help them manage farm stress and find help for mental health concerns. Whether you’re looking for information about how to recognize and manage stress, trying to find counseling services in your area or are in need of crisis support, you can find help here.”

National research polls conducted and published by AFBF in 2019 and 2021 showed that a number of factors including financial issues and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic are impacting farmers’ mental health, highlighting the need to identify local resources that can help farmers and ranchers cope with chronic stress and mental health concerns.

The Farm State of Mind directory lists resources specifically geared toward farmers, ranchers and rural communities in states where these specific services are available, with additional listings for county and statewide mental health and other support services in every state. The listings can be filtered by state and type of resource, including hotlines, counseling services and published information.

AFBF partnered with the University of Georgia School of Social Work to research available resources across the U.S. and Puerto Rico and compile comprehensive information included in the directory.

Farmers and ranchers are encouraged to share the directory with their family, friends and community networks to ensure widespread awareness of the availability of these important resources.

April 5, 2021April 5, 2021

Rescue dogs and the U.S. livestock industry

Rescue dogs and foreign animal diseases are not something I ever expected would combine in the same story. However, a recent assignment for the National Association of Farm Broadcasting brought the two previously unrelated issues face-to-face. The National Pork Producers Council is alarmed at the number of rescue dogs coming into the U.S. from countries currently battling a serious Foreign Animal Disease outbreak.

The potential is there for some of those FADs to ride along with the dogs, either on the coats or equipment like dog crates as the animals enter the country. Liz Wagstrom is the Chief Veterinarian for the NPPC, and she says they’re especially concerned about animals coming in from Asia.

“Rescue dogs are being brought into the U.S. from Asia after being rescued out of wet markets or the meat trade,” Wagstrom said. “They could be contaminated with blood, urine, or manure, which could carry something like African Swine Fever, Foot-and-Mouth Disease, or Classic Swine Fever.”

The dogs themselves aren’t susceptible to those diseases. However, Wagstrom says they could carry contamination on their coats, in their bedding, or even dog dishes and toys they came into the country with could get contaminated.

“Our concern is those rescue dogs could enter the United States, be adopted by someone on a farm, and be carrying a virus,” she said. “The crates they ride in, or other items like dishes and toys could be contaminated. That could lead to disaster.”

Dr. Liz Wagstrom is the Chief Veterinarian for the National Pork Producers Council. (Photo from Twitter.com)

Not only are domestic herds at risk, but if crates or other items aren’t properly disposed of and feral pigs get into or near them, that will also spread disease quickly. “We feel that if these animals are coming in, we need rules in place to do it safely,” she said.

Which government agency has jurisdiction over this is a “confusing issue.” The vast majority of dogs come into the country with their owners, and those dogs fall under the authority of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Hagstrom, a long-time veterinarian, says the CDC is “basically looking to see if those dogs have a rabies vaccination.”

Dogs that come in for resale fall under the U.S. Department of Agriculture authority. However, she points out that most of that authority focuses on animal welfare. A very small number of dogs coming into the country get evaluated as a possible risk to livestock.

“That would be herding dogs from certain areas that get evaluated for tapeworms,” she says. “It might also include dogs from the new areas of the world infected by screwworms. We think the USDA definitely has the authority to expand their oversight of the dogs that come in either for sale or adoption.

“A Foreign Animal Disease outbreak in the U.S. will immediately shut down all trade,” Wagstrom said while on the phone from Arizona, “which means we’d have a lot of extra animals on hand.

“Even if it was African Swine Fever that only impacted hogs, we have trading partners that may question milk, meat, and poultry exports,” she added. “The depressed prices for pork will likely put downward pressure on the price of beef, poultry, and dairy products.”

That means a Foreign Animal Disease of any kind will be a multi-billion-dollar hit to U.S. livestock, but it might not stop there. There’s a potential hit to the soybean industry because pork is a big part of its market. “It could have a devastating impact on U.S. agriculture as a whole,” Hagstrom says.

She says NPPC has studied the Animal Protection Act, which gives USDA authority over animals, their conveyances, bedding, and animal feed if they could potentially harm the livestock industry. If the agency was concerned about just dog diseases, then USDA doesn’t have the authority.

“However, because we’re talking about the health of the livestock industry, we believe they have the authority to write rules on how to safely bring the dogs into the country,” she says. “We do understand they’re being rescued from some horrific conditions in many cases. If they’re coming in to be rescued, let’s make sure they’re coming safely.

“Let’s get them quarantined and make sure they get washed,” Hagstrom says. “We also need to make sure their crates, bedding, and anything else that came into the country are properly disposed of. That will make it a win-win for both the dogs and U.S. livestock.”

To give ourselves the best chance of keeping the livestock industry safe, NPPC says we need more agricultural inspectors at ports of entry into the U.S. Last year, the government authorized over 700 new ag inspectors and 60 K-9 teams. However, the Coronavirus put a damper on those plans.

“Those new positions were funded by user fees on international airline tickets and international cargo,” she said. “Those fees went away because of the 95 percent decrease in international travel brought on by COVID-19 in 2020. That meant we had to work through the appropriations process to keep those inspectors funded at the current level.”

NPPC and other organizations are back at the appropriations table and asking for additional funding to continue to increase the number of agricultural inspectors as travel hopefully gets back to normal levels.

April 1, 2021April 1, 2021

Planting predictions and grain stocks numbers

Planting crops and grain stocks were a topic of conversation in the markets this week. The USDA issued its Prospective Planting and Stocks Reports, with the biggest surprise coming from the planting numbers. Corn planting is estimated at 91.1 million acres, up less than one percent from a year ago. Mike Zuzolo is the President of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas. He says the trade was expecting more corn acres in the report.

“I think that’s right. Look at the news wire estimates. The lowest number we saw was down around 91 million acres. I don’t publish to the newswires anymore because the algo-traders use them to position themselves before the numbers come out. I send stuff out to the producers and investors that I work with. So, I was below 92 and having a really tough time going above 91.5.”

He says one reason farmers may be shying away from more corn acres is the quickly rising cost of inputs. However, corn wasn’t the only surprise in the planting report.

“What was surprising to me is how did the soybeans come in at 87.6 million planted, when the trade, including myself, were closer to 89 and 90 million. What happened was most of the other producers in other parts of the country, including the cotton producer, the sorghum producer, and the rice producer all ‘stayed in their lane’ this year and they kept planting what they normally produce. I think this brings with it a little more questioning, especially with that Deep South looking wetter than normal from the Tennessee River Valley down to Louisiana, so we’re going to have to keep an eye on that because soybean acres could grow, similar to the way corn acres could grow because the of the way the weather is shaping up.”

He says the Deep South weather picture looks wet, while the main corn and soybean areas, especially in the Plains States, are leaning toward a drier pattern.

Zuzolo was disappointed in USDA’s prediction of 46.4 million all-wheat acres, the fourth-lowest planted area since records began in 1919.

“I think the big thing we saw in the planting that I’ll wrap up with, and this is where we have a leader to the downside, and that is the wheat market. We wanted it to be the leader to the upside with the drought in the High Plains and Central Plains and in the hard red wheat belt specifically, driving prices higher and make corn that much more expensive, not allowing wheat to get into a feed category. But unfortunately, we are seeing the wheat-corn spread dip into the 50-60-cent per bushel range. Soft red wheat minus corn, that is feed category for wheat, that is the lowest since late 2017.”

Corn planting totaled 91.1 million acres, up less than one percent from a year ago. Soybeans are estimated at 87.6 million acres, up five percent. All wheat acres are 46.4 million, up five percent. The all-cotton planting projection for 2021 is 12 million acres, one percent lower than last year.

The Stocks Report showed corn stocks down three percent from last year, soybean stocks down 31 percent, and all wheat stocks were seven percent lower than 2020.

“I was glad that the soybeans came in a little bit higher and would rather have it that way, and the wheat a little bit higher than the corn. The corn came in at 67 million bushels, 37 million bushels light, versus the average trade guess. And so, that keeps your old crop corn well bid.”

Corn in all positions totaled 7.7 billion bushels, down three percent from last year. Soybeans stored in all positions were 1.56 billion bushels, 31 percent lower than last March. All wheat stored in positions totaled 1.31 billion bushels, seven percent lower than last year. Durum wheat stocks in all positions were 42.7 billion bushels, 17 percent lower than last year.

Again, that’s Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics in Kansas.