Weather | Field 2 Field

May 18, 2020May 18, 2020

Farm stress management via the HERD

Farm stress. There’s far too much of it going on these days. What a way to make a living as the farming economy has been in the dumper for over half a decade and it’s getting worse, just as we were beginning to see a tiny light at the end of a still very dark, very long tunnel. This COVID-19 outbreak and its effects on the economy are only making things more difficult.

The assignment from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting (I work there as Assistant News Service Editor) was to find an expert who could give farmers tips on how to handle the enormous stress they were carrying after the trade war with China, numerous weather disasters, as well as commodity prices so low that farmers could no longer cover their cost of production.

Thanks to a Google search, I found out that Dr. Josie Rudolphi of the University of Illinois was just the expert to help farmers deal with everything that’s happening. She’s an Assistant Professor in the Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department at the campus in Champaign, Illinois. Rudolphi has developed the HERD Stress Management Strategy and spends a lot of time speaking about it throughout rural America.

“Producers are experiencing more farm stress than we’ve seen over the previous five years, which no one thought was possible,” she said. “We’re getting further into spring, which is already a stressful period, and now we’re compounding that with COVID-19, which is a double-edged sword.

“Not only does it create health concerns,” Rudolphi added, “it also creates big concerns about what we see happening in the markets right now. Traditional markets aren’t available for a lot of their products right now, so people have to find a non-traditional way to move some of their products, or they have to dispose of them entirely. That’s an enormous stressor, so it’s a really challenging spring.”

Here’s some highlights of a breakout session that Dr. Rudolphi gave on stress management at the 2019 National Farm and Ranch Conference.

HERD Stress Management

HERD is an acronym that describes what she calls “positive ways of coping with stress.” She tried to keep it as general as possible just because people experience and handle stress in different ways. The goal of the strategy is to keep people as healthy as possible through a stressful period.

HERD stands for Hobbies, Exercise, Relaxation, and Diversion. Rudolphi calls them “evidence-based ways of positively coping with stress,” with positively being the key word in the sentence.

Hobbies – “There’s a lot of scientific evidence that doing something purely for pleasure, even two hours a week, can have a tremendous impact on mental health,” she said. “What separates a hobby from a job is it’s a creative outlet. We’re talking about things like art, gardening, and woodworking.

“We do know woodworking is a big one on a lot of farms across America,” Dr. Rudolphi said. “So is working with metal, as well as restoring old farm equipment. Hobbies are something different from our jobs and something we want to do for ourselves. It’s a great way to shift yourself out of a stressful mindset, so find something to do that you truly enjoy.”

Exercise – “We all know exercise is good for us,” Rudolphi said. “Exercise has huge physical benefits, but it also has tremendous mental benefits as well. And you only need to do a minimum of 20 minutes a day, it doesn’t have to be arduous or intense. It just means getting your heart rate above resting. A brisk walk is certainly a way to start reaping some of the physical and mental benefits.

Relaxation – “It might be a no-brainer to some, but this is all about finding ways to decompress,” she said. “You know how life on the farm can be. It’s challenging and there’s always something to do and be worrying about.

“it could be something as simple as a nap,” Rudolphi said. “It’s often hard to find the time or even the justification for a quick nap. Getting the rest and relaxation that we need is a vital piece of maintaining our physical and mental health.”

Diversion – “It’s always fun to talk about diversions,” she said with a smile I could almost see over the phone. “It’s a way of distracting your brain and stopping something like negative self-talk or possibly a thought spiral.

“For example, if you find yourself getting really overwhelmed thinking about things like farm finances, farm succession planning, I always recommend you take 20 minutes and do something else. Change the task in front of you by maybe taking a drive to another farm for a visit. It could be a 20-minute YouTube video about something purely for entertainment or a laugh. It’s trying to divert our attention away from something bringing a tremendous amount of stress.”

Signs of serious farm stress

There are signs of extreme stress (what she calls “distress” that friends and family should be watching out for. You want to watch for physical, behavioral, and emotional changes in your friend or family member out on a farm.

“Watching out for signs is very important because we often have trouble admitting to ourselves that we’ve changed, especially if it’s not a positive change,” she said. “It’s easier to observe changes in others and bring it up to them if that should become necessary.”

Physical – “Are they sleeping a lot more,” Rudolphi said, “or have they gone the other way and don’t sleep much at all? Are they eating a lot more or a lot less? Are they experiencing some kind of chronic pain, such as a backache or headache? Is their heart racing or are they experiencing nausea?

Behavioral – “These are changes in our day-to-day patterns,” she said. “The changes could be in how much we eat, drink, or sleep. Changes could show up in what we’re interested in. They could also include work changes, especially if someone starts neglecting the things they’re supposed to do. Distressed people also could manifest changes how they care for themselves.”

Emotional – “These are the easiest changes to spot,” Rudolphi said. “Depression shows up as people not interested in the things they used to enjoy. They could also become easily agitated, irritable, or angry. A blowup at a family member is an obvious sign that there’s too much stress.”

Stress Management Resources

She says there are several national and regional stress lines that farmers can call to talk to someone about what’s happening on their farm. Iowa has the Iowa Concerned Hotline. Minnesota has several farm hotlines that producers can access. But, there’s nothing wrong with looking for professional help if you feel it’s gone that far.

“A really good place to start toward achieving that objective is to talk to your primary care provider,” she says. “They’ll be able to help you triage the situation and help you navigate the resources available in your insurance system.”

Farmers are known as independent folks who prefer to handle things themselves. Rudolphi says it’s vital to remember that asking for help does not make you weak or mean something is seriously wrong with you.

“No,” she said emphatically. “Absolutely not. If you have livestock and something is wrong with them, you wouldn’t hesitate to ask for help. Give yourself that same level of care, for both your sake and for the people around you.”

May 7, 2020May 7, 2020

Frost in the Friday night forecast in farm country

Here is the audio podcast with Ryan Martin that you can download to your computer. You can also play it on your mobile device. Just his the play arrow on the left.

Frost in the forecast is rarely a good thing in farm country during any season outside of winter. In an ideal world, the only exception is a killing frost after corn states hit black layer. Of course, we don’t always live in an ideal world, do we? Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, is a long-time agricultural meteorologist who says the threat of some frost damage will begin this weekend.

“The days most in question are Friday night, May 8, into Saturday morning,” he said. “The axis of the coldest air will come across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, east-to-northeast Iowa, northern Illinois, most of Indiana, as well as all of Michigan and Ohio. This is the zone where we’ll see temperatures at 30 degrees or colder.”

He said the coldest air looks to hit Michigan and Ohio this weekend, where we could see some big impact on soft red winter wheat, especially in Ohio. The frost timing is not good as wheat has woken up out of winter dormancy and is moving forward through its growth stages.

“The wheat is at the jointing stage and anytime the crop gets further into its growth, that means the wheat is a little more susceptible to cold temperatures,” Martin said, “depending on how much the temps fall and how long they’re under a certain threshold.

“If wheat is just breaking dormancy and you get a cold snap, you have to be under 28 degrees anywhere between three and five hours,” he added. “When we get into the jointing stage and further along, wheat can barely handle 30 degrees for an hour or two. That’s where the issue lies on wheat this weekend.”

Frost — Ryan Martin, Hoosier Ag Today meteorologist, says the fast pace of planting in 2020 is
going to slow down for a few days due to cooler than normal temps in farm country. (Photo
YouTube.com)

Corn and soybeans will hopefully be a different story. Based on the crop planting progress and emergence reports, Martin, Chief Meteorologist for the Hoosier Ag Today Radio Network, is much more optimistic about those crops being able to survive the freezing temps.

“Illinois leads the way with nine percent of its corn crop emerged,” he said. “In most areas, the growing point of the crop is still going to be below ground, so I don’t think it will mean anything for corn and soybeans on mortality. What it does do is slow down that incredibly fast-paced planting season we’ve seen in many states.”

A couple of other examples include Iowa, which was on a record planting pace during the last planting update, while Minnesota just to the north is no slouch either on planting progress. The Purdue University meteorology graduate says all of the “good stuff” that comes with early-planted corn gets slowed down and “stunted” because of the frost/freeze over the weekend and the extended run of below-normal temps that won’t end till the middle of next week.

“Cold air moved out of Canada and focused on the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and the northeastern United States,” Martin said. “However, there’s an interesting twist ahead in the forecast for the next seven-to-ten days. We’ll start to see temperatures in the below-normal areas start to moderate on May 13 through 15.

“Things will take a drastic switch after that,” he added. “We’ll see above-normal temps in the Eastern Corn Belt, while the Plains may drop down below normal through the last part of May. There’s a lot of air currents, different movements here, different patterns trying to emerge, and it all has to do with where polar air is shifting to this time of year.”

It’s been a bit of an unusual spring so far for many reasons, but I’m just talking about the weather. What we’ve seen so far in terms of temps and precipitation has been very different from recent years. There’s no question, a lot of states have seen temperatures consistently lower than what they normally expect.

“Big swings in spring temps aren’t unusual,” says Martin. “We’ve certainly seen them before. I think the reason it’s coming home to roost a little bit more and has people scratching their heads is the degree of change from the last several years.

“We’ve had pretty dog-gone decent springs over the past handful of years,” he recalled. “We’ve come out of winter early and been able to hit the ground running based on the temps. Last year, precipitation was a big problem, but the temperatures were still decent. This year is the first out of the past five or so that’s really showed us the kind of variability we can see in the spring.”

Ryan will do custom forecasts for your radio and TV stations. Check out his work at www.weatherstud.com.

April 27, 2020April 27, 2020

Farmer optimism hits an all-time low

Farmer optimism is in the dumper and there is no nice way to say it. COVID-19 and its economic impact, low commodity prices, trade wars, and weather have made life even more challenging. DTN found out that farmer optimism is at a record low. They’ve been doing a tri-annual survey of farmers for several years and this spring’s Agricultural Confidence Index hit an all-time low mark.

The baseline for their survey is 100. Everything below 100 is pessimistic, and any number above 100 is considered optimistic.

“We do our survey in the spring, just before planting,” said DTN Editor-In-Chief Greg Horstmeier. “We also do one at harvest, and then our final survey is in December, which is basically farm tax time. The drop in the index from the last time we did this in December is not a surprise, given everything that’s going on.

“It was a record-sized drop down to an index reading of 67,” he added. “That’s a 97-point drop, which is even more remarkable because we’re hearing that agriculture is moving on as normal. Everyone is either getting ready to or heading out into the field, so that big of a damper on the survey results is surprising.”

Horstmeier said spring is typically the most optimistic time of the year for farmers. New crops are going into the ground, which automatically means a fresh start, especially if the year before was as tough as 2019. Low optimism in the spring isn’t unusual. What’s unusual about this survey is how pessimistic farmers are about the future outlook.

The future outlook is typically very optimistic during the spring survey. “This year, that index reading was 73, which means it dove hard into negative territory,” Horstmeier said. “That was the big takeaway for me. Not only does the current situation have farmers in a pessimistic state of mind, but they don’t have a lot of promise for the foreseeable future.”

Another thing that really stood out was just how prevalent the pessimism is in different sectors of agriculture. It didn’t matter what farmers grew or how big their operations were, either. Even in down years, there’s typically difference worth noting.

“We typically see at least some differences between, for example, livestock and crop producers,” Horstmeier said. “We’ve also seen regional differences, such as the Midwest may be less optimistic than farmers in the Southeast. The pessimism was across the board, regardless of location, income level, the crops they grew, and what kind of enterprises they had.”

Speaking of Midwest farmers, in this year’s survey they showed the most pessimism currently, yet they also had the most optimism for the future. Southeastern farmers were more optimistic about their current conditions (89) but felt less optimism for their future (56).

DTN also conducts a similar survey of agribusinesses. The index level came in at a just-above-neutral 104. Agribusinesses rated their current conditions at a slightly pessimistic 85. However, they were above neutral when looking at the future, coming in at 118.

Here’s the link to the DTN survey article.

April 27, 2020April 27, 2020

Prevented planting and cover crops: 2019 Lessons Learned

Prevented planting, cover crops, and a wet fall taught farmers across the Midwest a lot of lessons going into 2020. The South Dakota NRCS has put together a short film

Watch this 3 1/2-minute video which is part of a new mini series for #agriculture.

In this discussion, farmers and specialists go over some of the lessons learned in 2020.

Wet August 2019 conditions prevented some cover crops from being planted; farmers were left weighing up terminating covers in the fall or leaving them to overwinter and provide spring growth; the perspective of experienced cover croppers on their attitudes to reseeding of covers (e.g., buckwheat) and how they deal with them.

prevented planting — Cover crops and prevent plant acres in 2019; the South Dakota NRCS documented some lessons learned from last year and how they apply to the 2020 crop year. (Photo from NPR.org(

“Growing Resilience” is intended to help farmers and ranchers gain insights into 2020 crop year thinking from eight farmers and several technical specialists from the South Dakota NRCS and SDSU. Filmed in late-February 2020 in Mitchell and Crooks, SD, these recorded conversations offer candid comments on issues they faced on 2019 Prevented Planting acres, and how their soil improvement journey makes their fields more resilient.

These short video stories provide farmers and ranchers with ideas and options to consider now and for future growing seasons. Additional resources, including technical guidelines, are available on our website at www.sd.nrcs.usda.gov > Soils > Growing Resilience with Soil Health.Specialists with the USDA NRCS are respecting social distancing and are available by phone or email for answering questions. Please visit farmers.gov/service-center-locator to find the latest COVID19 operational status and a directory with your local office and employee contact information.

Please feel free to “like and share” on your favorite social media!

Initiated by the USDA NRCS with a Partnership Work Group.
Produced by the University of South Carolina in collaboration
with the USDA NRCS serving South Dakota.

The views and opinions of the farmer participants expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.

April 21, 2020April 21, 2020

Farm Safety Net Programs See Record Signup

Farm safety net programs saw a record signup this go-around.

Producers signed a record 1.77 million contracts for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs for the 2019 crop year, which is more than 107 percent of the total farm safety net contracts signed compared with a 5-year average. USDA also reminds producers that June 30 is the deadline to enroll in ARC and PLC for the 2020 crop year.

“Producers for several years have experienced low commodity prices, a volatile trade environment and catastrophic natural disasters,” said Richard Fordyce, Administrator of USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA). “Farmers looking to mitigate these risks recognize that ARC and PLC provide the financial protections they need to weather substantial drops in crop prices or revenues.”

Producers interested in enrolling for farm safety net programs in 2020 should contact their FSA county office. Producers must enroll by June 30 and make their one-time update to PLC payment yields by September 30.

FSA attributes the significant participation in the 2019 crop year ARC and PLC programs to increased producer interest in the programs under the 2018 Farm Bill and to an increase in eligible farms because of the selling and buying of farms and new opportunities for beginning farmers and military veterans with farms having 10 or fewer base acres. Enrollment for 2019 ended March 16.

USDA Service Centers, including FSA county offices, are open for business by phone only, and field work will continue with appropriate social distancing. While program delivery staff will continue to come into the office, they will be working with producers by phone and using online tools whenever possible. All Service Center visitors wishing to conduct business with the FSA, Natural Resources Conservation Service or any other Service Center agency are required to call their Service Center to schedule a phone appointment. More information can be found at farmers.gov/coronavirus.

For more information on ARC and PLC, download the program fact sheet or the 2014-2018 farm bills comparison fact sheet. Online ARC and PLC election decision tools are available at www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. To locate the nearest USDA Service Center, visit farmers.gov/service-center-locator.

April 17, 2020April 18, 2020

Spring weather forecast showing less flooding

Spring weather is never a dull topic of conversation in the Midwest, is it? We went from a fantastic week of mild weather leading up to Easter to a run of below-normal temps and snowfall on Easter Sunday. While it was only a couple inches here in Maple Grove, there were much higher amounts elsewhere. I talked weather with Bryce Anderson of DTN, who says it’s not unusual at all to get snow during April.

“That has certainly happened many times before,” he said. “The heavy snow was certainly unwelcome because it set back farmer fieldwork for a while, probably a week later than they wanted.

This is what spring weather looked like in a good deal of the Central Plains and Midwest when flooding hit farmers hard. The good news in the spring weather forecast this year is the threat of flooding has moderated, depending on where you live. (Photo from curbed.com)

Farmers are certainly chomping at the bit to get spring fieldwork done to get ready for planting. Remember April 15^th of 2019 and the big snowstorm that moved through the Midwest? Here on the west side of the Twin Cities, we picked up 17 inches of snow last year. Happy Tax Day, right? However, despite that recent round of spring weather, Anderson doesn’t expect the monumental planting delays we saw last year during one of the roughest springs in recent memory.

Here’s a quick recap of a rough spring in 2019, courtesy of PBS:

“It won’t be a repeat of last year by any means,” he said emphatically. “Despite storm activity that moved through the southwestern and central United States, things were starting to moderate as we headed into the weekend. That colder arctic air we saw come into the Midwest over Easter was very slow in leaving the region, so that’ll also set fieldwork back a bit.”

One area of good news in the spring weather forecast is he’s not as worried about widespread flooding in farm country as he was a month ago. However, the caveat is that it depends on where you live. Still, things have slowed down some on that front.

“It’s not just me saying that either,” Anderson said. “Hydrologists with the Corps of Engineers have said the movement of the higher water throughout the nation’s river systems has been better than they hoped it would be. However, that doesn’t mean we won’t have trouble spots.

“The James River Valley that runs through South Dakota and the Red River Valley in North Dakota and Minnesota are still at flood stage,” he said. “In the Delta, there are streams in some portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley where flooding is still ongoing.”

Unfortunately for farmers and folks in those areas, flooding will likely continue in those areas for some time yet. Anderson did say that there likely aren’t going to be any new flood threats that develop in the spring weather forecast for farm country unless there’s a drastic change in the weather pattern. Before the recent run of cold and snow, farmers have gotten some planting done this spring in the eastern Corn Belt.

“There has been some soybean planting in Illinois and Indiana,” he said. “Growers in the western Corn Belt likely haven’t gotten very busy yet. In other areas of the Delta, corn planting is way behind in states like Mississippi and Arkansas. They likely won’t get a lot done after the recent run of storms and rainfall that recently hit southern areas.

February 21, 2020February 21, 2020

Water quality awards given out to two Minnesota farmers

Water quality is a hot topic of conversation in Minnesota right now, with the state’s farmers at the forefront of the discussion in award-winning fashion.

Two Minnesota farmers are being recognized for their commitment to agriculture, water quality, and wildlife. Randy Schmiesing of Stevens County, as well as Tom Cotter of Mower County, were recently given the new Minnesota Agricultural Water Quality Certification Program (MAWQCP) wildlife endorsement at the Pheasants Forever National Pheasant Fest in Minneapolis. Schmiesing and Cotter are the first farmers in the state to receive the endorsement.

“Conserving our natural resources for future generations to enjoy has been a lifelong goal and commitment,” said Randy Schmiesing. “We are proud to be one of the first farms to be certified by the Minnesota Department of Agriculture for the wildlife endorsement through the Minnesota Agricultural Water Quality Certification Program and encourage other farmers to pursue this wildlife endorsement and reap the many benefits it achieves.”

Agriculture Commissioner Thom Petersen presents Tom Cotter of Mower County with his Minnesota Agricultural Water Quality Certification Program wildlife endorsement. (Contributed photo)

Agriculture Commissioner Thom Petersen presents Randy Schmiesing of Stevens County with his Minnesota Agricultural Water Quality Certification Program wildlife endorsement (Contributed photo)

MAWQCP launched the wildlife, soil health, and integrated pest-management endorsements in December as additions to the 10-year certification a farmer or landowner receives in the program. The certification program partnered with various non-profit organizations like Pheasants Forever and the Minnesota Soil Health Coalition, as well as state agencies, to develop the endorsements.

“Many conservation practices targeting water quality also have benefits for other conservation goals, such as wildlife,” said Agriculture Commissioner Thom Petersen. “With the help of organizations like Pheasants Forever, we want to recognize farmers who are making efforts to protect our numerous natural resources in Minnesota.”

“Pheasants Forever appreciates the opportunity to work alongside the Minnesota Department of Agriculture and other partners in highlighting the new wildlife endorsement through the MAWQCP at Pheasant Fest,” said Tanner Bruse, Agriculture and Conservation Programs Manager, Pheasants Forever. “It’s our honor to be a part of the recognition of those implementing conservation practices that represent a win-win scenario for their operation, soil, water and wildlife. We congratulate them and thank them for their stewardship.”

Certified producers who achieve an endorsement will receive an additional sign for their farm and recognition for their conservation excellence.

Certified farmers and landowners interested in an endorsement, or those interested in in earning a certification in water quality, can contact their local Soil and Water Conservation District. They can also visit MyLandMyLegacy.com.

About the Minnesota Agricultural Water Quality Certification Program

The Minnesota Agricultural Water Quality Certification Program is a voluntary opportunity for farmers and agricultural landowners to take the lead in implementing conservation practices that protect our water. Those who implement and maintain approved farm management practices will be certified and in turn obtain regulatory certainty for a period of ten years. The program is available to farmers and landowners statewide. To date, the program has certified 832 farms totaling 566,862 acres.

September 1, 2019September 10, 2019

Weather turns cool but won’t last in Ag country

Here is the full podcast with Bryce Anderson. You can download for later if you like. Just click on the three dots on the right and hit the download box.

Weather and agriculture go together like husband and wife, hand in glove, or ball and chain. I caught up to a guy who knows a lot about agriculture and weather. He’s Bryce Anderson, Senior Ag Meteorologist with DTN.

Temperatures have turned cool in the Midwest recently and it has some farmers concerned about a potential impact on crop development. Anderson says that cool trend is going to continue for several more days.

He says the cooler-than-normal temps cover most of the Corn Belt. In some cases, certain locations in the Corn Belt have been double-digits below where they normally are in late August-early September.

Cool high pressure dropped down from Canada and took control of the weather in the Corn Belt. However, Anderson says that high pressure will begin to move away soon.

Because much of the crops in the ground went in late, all eyes are on the weather forecast and trying to anticipate when that first frost will be. While Anderson says an early frost doesn’t look likely, that may not be good enough for this year’s crops…tape

He says the weather during harvest should be good enough to help farmers get their crops into the bins quicker than last fall. Anderson says the bigger question will be how good the condition of those crops are when they’re taken out of the fields across farm country.

June 20, 2019June 20, 2019

Flooding Problems Ongoing in Farm Country

Farmers in different parts of rural America are still dealing with flooding. Bryce Anderson, Senior Ag Meteorologist from DTN, says those struggles are continuing in some areas, while other parts of farm country are continuing to show some improvement.

Other parts of the Midwest are still dealing with flood stage and don’t have an immediate end in sight.

The rainfall isn’t over for parts of the country still dealing with saturated soils.

Anderson says the last time farm country had flooding problems that covered such a large area at the same time was back in 1993. He says the wet pattern will likely stick around at least through the end of June and possibly early July…

Bryce Anderson is Senior Ag Meteorologist with DTN.

For some perspective on how bad the flooding has been, an article on the Pacific Standard Magazine website says the Mississippi River has received rain and snow levels at a staggering 200 percent above normal.

And, it’s not just farmers who are suffering because of the flooding. The flooding has wrecked homes, contaminated drinking water, and done billions of dollars in damages. Unfortunately, industry experts are warning that it may take years for agriculture and rural America to recover from the extensive damages.

April 6, 2019April 6, 2019

Spring Planting Waiting for Drier Weather

By Chad Smith

Farm country is getting closer and closer to spring planting. Farmers are starting to look at their planters longingly, dreaming of being out in the field. After a wet winter that resulted in serious flooding problems, the nation’s midsection is looking for a spell of dry weather. However, ag meteorologist Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, says planters are likely going to sit a spell yet. It’s important to remember that we’re way too early to think about seriously-delayed spring planting.

“It probably going to be late this month or early into next month before planters get rolling,” Martin said. “It’s way too early to start thinking about serious spring planting delays. We’re actually not even at first planting dates in a large part of the Corn Belt yet.

Heartland Forecast

“As I look at the pattern stretching all the way from the Great Plains through the Corn Belt, we’ve got a big weather system that wants to move through late this weekend (Sunday, April 7 possibly through early Tuesday the 9^th). There won’t be a lot of good drying time after that running through the end of the week.”

After that, there’s another system in the 11-to-16-day forecast that may have 1-3 inches of rain coming across all the key growing areas. Martin says, flooding and current situation aside, the forecast doesn’t give farmers enough of a window in there to really start spring planting en masse.

Spring Planting — The Elkhorn River in Nebraska is way over its banks, covering up a lot of farm ground in Nebraska. Spring planting is likely to be delayed in a large part of the Midwest and Corn Belt because of flooding just like this. (Photo from Omaha.com)

Parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri have been devastated by flooding this spring, and the dry weather farmers are looking for really isn’t going to happen. “I don’t think so,” he said. “The way the pattern looks over the next 10 days, I’m counting two systems that come through. One won’t have a huge amount of rain, but the second one could bring as much as a quarter-inch to as much as 1.25 inches.

“Normally at this time of year that would be good news,” Martin added. “But, the way things are set up right now it’s just not good.”

Southern Plains/Delta

There are some planters rolling deeper in the Southern Plains and in the Delta. Martin said the weather pattern in that part of the country shows that farmers may have to dodge some thunderstorms in order to keep spring planting going forward.

“Fronts will be coming through but as they do, they won’t hit everyone at the same time,” he said. “Over the next three weeks or so, those storms will end up with about 60-70 percent coverage at any given time. It doesn’t look too excessive to me right now. It’ll be a hodgepodge type of activity that should eventually allow crops into the ground and then get the crops the kind of rainfall they need to get going.”

The pattern for the heaviest rains wants to stay a little farther north into the Central Plains and the Missouri Valley Corn Belt areas. The interesting area to watch will be the far east part of the Deep South, where the likelihood of getting the crop in the ground on time is pretty good.

“Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and up into Tennessee are places where temperatures might lag a little behind normal,” Martin said. “There could be some thunderstorm development but I’m not quite as bullish on rain or bearish on getting spring planting in the Deep South done as I am farther north.”

Potential Flooding Possible in Upper Midwest

There won’t be as much happening in the western states in terms of precipitation like there will be in other parts of the country. The biggest story in the western U.S. won’t be in terms of new systems moving through. It’ll more likely involve snowpack runoff. The interesting thing about snowpack runoff is the problems won’t necessarily be just out west.

“The Red River likely will hit major flood stage in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota,” he said. “There is snowpack that goes all the way back up into Montana and into the northern Rockies. The biggest question is just how fast we’ll see that snow melt and move through the area.

“The question is whether we’ll see a fast snowmelt with temps above normal,” he added. “That could be the story more than new systems coming through. Temperatures are still a little squirrely as temps likely will lag behind normal due to all that snowpack that still sits on the ground in those areas I mentioned.”

Here’s the entire conversation: