acres | Field 2 Field

January 30, 2023January 30, 2023

Plant-2023 is Already Set in Stone

Plant-2023 is already on the minds of farmers across the country. As proof, Farm Futures recently did a survey of farmers in all parts of the country who will get right to work this spring. Jacqueline Holland is the grain marketing analyst for Farm Futures.

Even if wheat plant-2023 does put a cap on corn and soybean plantings, Holland says American farmers are still going to plant a whole bunch of both crops.

“For corn, we’re looking at 90.5 million acres,” she said. “For soybeans, that’s 88.9 million acres. And for winter wheat, we calculated 34.9 million acres. For spring wheat, which includes hard red spring, white spring, and durum wheat, we’re anticipating 13.9 million acres. That gives us a grand total of 228.3 million acres for the three principal crops.”

It’s been a few years since wheat took some acres from both corn and soybeans but rising input costs and still solid prices mean a lot of farmers may be giving wheat plant-2023 a second look. She was surprised when their winter wheat calculation came in lower than USDA’s prediction issued in January.

“But if you go back at Chicago winter wheat futures prices during peak planting season last October, they were 25 percent higher than the year before,” Holland said. “At the same time, input prices for corn and beans were still rising, so maybe it shouldn’t be that surprising that wheat is drawing interest for plant-2023.”

The one thing even more surprising to her was how narrow the gap was between corn and soybean acres. It’s probably going down to the wire to see how the acres shake out. But, going into spring, it looks like farmers have already made up their minds about what and how much they’re planting in the spring.

“A lot of growers had finalized their plant-2023 rotations before 2023 even began,” she said. “Seventy percent said they already had things locked in and weren’t expecting to make any last-minute changes.”

One thing she’s going to watch closely is the soybean harvest. Holland says 88.9 million acres of soybeans have the potential to lead to a “record-large” crop. If that happens, some of the supply pressure weighing on commodity markets may ease a bit.

“However, if we see more soy crush plants coming online and increasing capacity by the time we harvest the crop, there may not be much of a price break,” she said. “That added demand could keep soybean prices high even though we could be looking at a record crop.

“That’s a big one I’m going to be watching in the coming months,” Holland said.

November 30, 2022November 30, 2022

2023 and the year ahead for the ag economy

2023 and the ag economy combine to produce some trepidation as we look to next year. While the ag economy is doing okay despite several challenges like supply chain delays and high input costs, the question is how long this will last into next year. I talked with David Widmar, an agricultural economist with Agricultural Economic Insights in West Lafayette, Indiana.

There are no doubts that commodity prices are showing a lot of volatility at the end of this year, and Widmar says that’s causing a lot of angst. However, it’s generally still a positive story in the farm economy. But what’s ahead next year?

“We do expect that positive story to continue into 2023,” he said during the 2022 National Association of Farm Broadcasting’ annual convention in Kansas City. “One of the biggest reasons why is tight commodity inventories across all commodities in the U.S. and globally.”

The problem is when things get tight for corn, soybeans, and wheat, we really can’t substitute one crop for another. All of those crops will want to maintain their acreage shares. The idea of “robbing Peter to pay Paul” won’t work.

“We can’t plant fewer corn acres to make up for soybeans or vice versa,” he said. “So, everything is tight, and that will continue to be part of the narrative going into 2023.

“We know one thing about2023,” Widmar added. “There will come a point when we oversupply. We’ll bring in new production acres around the world, including South America, Southeast Asia, India, and hopefully Russia and Ukraine in the long term.”

The other thing that will eventually affect the markets is the possibility of big yields. There’s been a recent run of average to slightly below-average U.S. corn yields. “Eventually, more acres and yields will push us over again.”

Here’s the entire conversation during the NAFB’s Trade Talk event in Kansas City.

August 18, 2021August 18, 2021

Canadian agriculture hit hard by drought

Canadian agriculture has something big in common with U.S. producers this year.

In fact, Canada and the U.S. have more in common than just a border. The two countries are also sharing a lot of hot, dry weather. Shaun Haney of RealAg is an agricultural journalist and broadcaster in Canada who says the longtime trading partners are in the same boat.

Shaun Haney of RealAg is an agricultural journalist and writer covering Canadian agriculture, which has been hit hard by drought. (Photo from YouTube.com)

“Absolutely yes,” he said on the phone from his office. “The drought of 2021 in Northern Ontario and the Western Canadian Prairies has been compared to the drought in 1988. This summer has been extremely hot and dry.

“It’s obviously hurt the crop conditions,” Haney added. “In some ways, it’s even more urgently impacted the grasslands and pastures, which is forcing producer discussions on the future of the Canadian cow herd after this fall, depending on what the level of cow cull will be.”

The drought isn’t just confined to 2021. As with many dry areas in the States, the drought stretches back to last fall. Haney noted that many Canadians were saying that “you don’t lose the crop in March.” However, they could have used moisture at that time, which they didn’t get.

“It was so dry that we’d used up a lot of our subsoil moisture last year,” he recalled. “We needed to replenish that moisture through the winter, and it didn’t happen. As we made our way into the growing season and the weeks passed, the rain just didn’t come.”

Severe drought is making things tough on Canadian agriculture. (Photo from globalnews.ca)

As the rain continued to hold off, the area listed on the Drought Monitor began to expand. Early in the year, the drought ran in a tight band along the U.S.-Canada border, especially in the Southern Prairies of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. At the same time, that drought also affected North Dakota and Montana early on in the U.S.

“As the weeks went by, the drought-impacted area continued to make its way further and further north,” Haney recalled. “It created a situation where the yields became more questionable on an increasing number of acres. The frustrating thing is some of those same fields started 2021 in great condition.”

The crops didn’t get the rain they needed for any consistent grain fill. Haney is located in Lethbridge, Alberta, and said a lot of the dryland in Canadian agriculture never had a chance. He described the 2021 Canadian growing season in one word: heartbreaking.

Crops hit by this year’s drought run the entire spectrum in Canada. Some crops handle adversity better than others, including chickpeas and lentils. However, Canadian farmers are especially concerned about the wheat and canola crops.

“I would say it’s even more so with canola,” Haney said. “From what I’ve heard, there are a lot of people harvesting some pretty light barley. But canola is the one where people are concerned they won’t have the yield. Canola is a fairly small seed, but it shouldn’t look like pepper.”

Canadian farmers do grow some soybean in Manitoba, where farmers may harvest bushels worth as little as $15. Producers also grow a little grain corn in Manitoba, as well as some in southern Alberta, that’s fed to livestock. Almost all of that corn is irrigated.

“There are some irrigated sugar beets in Alberta that are looking good as well,” he adds. “However, the list of struggling dryland crops is a long one.”

Haney says the one possible saving grace is good commodity prices. If prices were low during a drought like this, that would be the mother of all discouraging situations. He notes that if canola is around 20 dollars and you have ten bushels in the field, that’s 200 dollars an acre.

“It’s not a moneymaker on dry land, but it’s a lot better than a market with nine dollars,” he added. “This boils down to Mother Nature not cooperating with us, and it’s one of the variables that are out of our control.

“I can’t even imagine what it would have been like going through a drought like this in the 1930s and ‘40s when we weren’t in a minimum-till situation,” Haney said. “Thankfully, most of our fields are minimum or zero-tillage, which helps to conserve as much moisture as possible. It’s a good reminder of why we change our practices in Canadian agriculture out here on the prairies.”

Find out more about Shaun Haney and everything going on in Canadian agriculture at https://www.realagriculture.com.

April 1, 2021April 1, 2021

Planting predictions and grain stocks numbers

Planting crops and grain stocks were a topic of conversation in the markets this week. The USDA issued its Prospective Planting and Stocks Reports, with the biggest surprise coming from the planting numbers. Corn planting is estimated at 91.1 million acres, up less than one percent from a year ago. Mike Zuzolo is the President of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas. He says the trade was expecting more corn acres in the report.

“I think that’s right. Look at the news wire estimates. The lowest number we saw was down around 91 million acres. I don’t publish to the newswires anymore because the algo-traders use them to position themselves before the numbers come out. I send stuff out to the producers and investors that I work with. So, I was below 92 and having a really tough time going above 91.5.”

He says one reason farmers may be shying away from more corn acres is the quickly rising cost of inputs. However, corn wasn’t the only surprise in the planting report.

“What was surprising to me is how did the soybeans come in at 87.6 million planted, when the trade, including myself, were closer to 89 and 90 million. What happened was most of the other producers in other parts of the country, including the cotton producer, the sorghum producer, and the rice producer all ‘stayed in their lane’ this year and they kept planting what they normally produce. I think this brings with it a little more questioning, especially with that Deep South looking wetter than normal from the Tennessee River Valley down to Louisiana, so we’re going to have to keep an eye on that because soybean acres could grow, similar to the way corn acres could grow because the of the way the weather is shaping up.”

He says the Deep South weather picture looks wet, while the main corn and soybean areas, especially in the Plains States, are leaning toward a drier pattern.

Zuzolo was disappointed in USDA’s prediction of 46.4 million all-wheat acres, the fourth-lowest planted area since records began in 1919.

“I think the big thing we saw in the planting that I’ll wrap up with, and this is where we have a leader to the downside, and that is the wheat market. We wanted it to be the leader to the upside with the drought in the High Plains and Central Plains and in the hard red wheat belt specifically, driving prices higher and make corn that much more expensive, not allowing wheat to get into a feed category. But unfortunately, we are seeing the wheat-corn spread dip into the 50-60-cent per bushel range. Soft red wheat minus corn, that is feed category for wheat, that is the lowest since late 2017.”

Corn planting totaled 91.1 million acres, up less than one percent from a year ago. Soybeans are estimated at 87.6 million acres, up five percent. All wheat acres are 46.4 million, up five percent. The all-cotton planting projection for 2021 is 12 million acres, one percent lower than last year.

The Stocks Report showed corn stocks down three percent from last year, soybean stocks down 31 percent, and all wheat stocks were seven percent lower than 2020.

“I was glad that the soybeans came in a little bit higher and would rather have it that way, and the wheat a little bit higher than the corn. The corn came in at 67 million bushels, 37 million bushels light, versus the average trade guess. And so, that keeps your old crop corn well bid.”

Corn in all positions totaled 7.7 billion bushels, down three percent from last year. Soybeans stored in all positions were 1.56 billion bushels, 31 percent lower than last March. All wheat stored in positions totaled 1.31 billion bushels, seven percent lower than last year. Durum wheat stocks in all positions were 42.7 billion bushels, 17 percent lower than last year.

Again, that’s Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics in Kansas.

June 20, 2019June 20, 2019

Prevent plant acres with cover crops can be utilized on Sept. 1

Cover Crops might be a really good idea for empty prevent plant acres in farm country. The U.S. Department of Agriculture just announced that farmers who planted cover crops on prevented plant acres will be permitted to hay, graze or chop those fields earlier than November this year. USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA) adjusted the 2019 final haying and grazing date from November 1 to September 1 to help farmers who couldn’t plant crops because of flooding and excess rainfall this spring.

“We recognize farmers were greatly impacted by some of the unprecedented flooding and excessive rain this spring, and we made this one-year adjustment to help farmers with the tough decisions they are facing this year,” said Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation Bill Northey. “This change will make good stewardship of the land easier to accomplish while also providing an opportunity to ensure quality forage is available for livestock this fall.”

RMA has also determined that silage, haylage and baleage should be treated in the same manner as haying and grazing for this year. Producers can hay, graze or cut cover crops for silage, haylage or baleage on prevented plant acres on or after September 1 and still maintain eligibility for their full 2019 prevented planting indemnity.

“These adjustments have been made for 2019 only,” said RMA Administrator Martin Barbre. “RMA will evaluate the prudence of a permanent adjustment moving forward.”

Other USDA Programs
Other USDA agencies are also assisting producers with delayed or prevented planting. USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) is extending the deadline to report prevented plant acres in select counties, and USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) is holding special sign-ups for the Environmental Quality Incentives Program in certain states to help with planting cover crops on impacted lands. Contact your local FSA and NRCS offices to learn more.

More Information
Read our frequently asked questions to learn more about prevented plant.