Farm State of Mind in recent years can be summed up in one word: stress. While things are starting to turn around due to higher commodity prices, it doesn’t mean farmers are out of the woods yet.
In recognition of May as Mental Health Month, the American Farm Bureau Federation launched a comprehensive, easy-to-use online directory of resources for farmers, ranchers and their families who are experiencing stress and mental health challenges.
The directory, which is on the Farm State of Mind website at farmstateofmind.org, features listings for crisis hotlines and support lines, counseling services, training opportunities, podcasts, videos, published articles and other resources in every U.S. state and Puerto Rico. Listings for crisis support, counseling and behavioral health resources that are available nationwide are also included.
“For far too long, farmers and ranchers have been trying to cope with increasing levels of stress on their own,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “Our Farm State of Mind campaign is encouraging conversations about stress and mental health in farming and ranching communities. It is so important to spread the word that no one has to go it alone.
“This new online directory of stress and mental health resources in every state gives farmers, ranchers and rural communities a user-friendly, one-stop shop to find services in their area that can help them manage farm stress and find help for mental health concerns. Whether you’re looking for information about how to recognize and manage stress, trying to find counseling services in your area or are in need of crisis support, you can find help here.”
National research polls conducted and published by AFBF in 2019 and 2021 showed that a number of factors including financial issues and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic are impacting farmers’ mental health, highlighting the need to identify local resources that can help farmers and ranchers cope with chronic stress and mental health concerns.
The Farm State of Mind directory lists resources specifically geared toward farmers, ranchers and rural communities in states where these specific services are available, with additional listings for county and statewide mental health and other support services in every state. The listings can be filtered by state and type of resource, including hotlines, counseling services and published information.
AFBF partnered with the University of Georgia School of Social Work to research available resources across the U.S. and Puerto Rico and compile comprehensive information included in the directory.
Farmers and ranchers are encouraged to share the directory with their family, friends and community networks to ensure widespread awareness of the availability of these important resources.
Technology is as important to today’s farm machinery as the nuts and bolts that held old-school equipment together back in the day. Maintaining your machines is a never-ending task when it comes to farming. When you’re lubricating moving parts, changing filters, or checking bearings, don’t forget to keep the technology that runs your machinery up to date.
Just like the typical equipment maintenance farmers all know and love (and occasionally hate), the technology the runs your machines need a regular tune-up as well. Technology advances quickly, and farmers have to be just as quick to keep up, which can sometimes be an overwhelming task.
“As technology advances, you have to keep up to date with the software upgrades,” says Chris Ehman, Case/IH Aftermarket Solutions marketing manager. “That becomes even more true now as 3G is either going away or gone for good, depending on a farmer’s location. That’s why it’s even more important to get connected than before now.”
The new technology brought massive changes to the way farmers run their operations. For example, modern technology now gives farmers instant access to every machine in their fleet.
“The new technology in the CASE/IH Connection Portal frees up farmers to do their work, share data, and to manage their fleet wherever, whenever, and however they want,” he said. “It allows you to gather that data throughout the year and easily visualize what’s happening in your fields.”
The technology gives farmers a better grip on optimizing the performance of their fleet. Computerization helps Case IH owners of equipment made in 2010 or newer the chance to coordinate all of their machines and share their data to a central computer.
“Farmers can see each machine’s data as it’s running, including the location, the machine’s status, engine hours, idle time, acres per hour, and fuel levels,” he said, “so it helps them better track of what the operators are doing with the machines.
“Another way the technology helps farmers is with the security of their machines,” Ehman added. “It can set up geofences and curfews. With geo-fencing technology, you can set up pre-defined working areas for your machines and get alerts if they leave that specific area. And the curfew setting will alert you if the machine is working outside of a pre-defined timeframe. It gives you a lot of peace of mind at the end of every day.”
And if you’re one of those who don’t consider yourself “technologically efficient,” the software will help you know when it’s time to update. You’ll notice error codes and alerts that will get sent via the tech portal.
“That alert will help you understand what’s happening with your equipment out in the field,” Ehman said. “It will help you decide if it’s a simple setting that needs to be adjusted and can get fixed over the phone, or if a tech will instead need to make a trip to the field. If a tech support worker doesn’t need to come out and fix the issue, taking care of it over the phone can be a real time and money-saver.
“And if a tech is needed, they’ll have a much better understanding of what the issue is and what’s needed to fix it,” he added. “That makes the repair move at a quicker pace and gets the machinery back into operation and making money for the farmer. Quicker repairs, less money, and more uptime is always a good thing.”
At the end of the day, Ehman said farming is one of the most challenging occupations in the country. There’s a lot at stake and many difficult decisions to make. The agricultural economy has struggled in recent years, and farmers need success this year without question.
“A profitable operation is possible, and these new technologies help make that happen,” he said. “You don’t have to wait to benefit from the advantages of the new technologies. The equipment you already own can be capable of so much more than you may realize.”
Data protection is a big deal for farmers, and Ehman says companies like Case IH are taking good care of that vital information. The company is upfront in saying that farmer’s data belongs to each individual farmer and that farmer alone.
“For our dealers and our partners to access that data, they have to get permission from the farmers,” Ehman said. “That is a move in the right direction for Case IH as a company and a brand.
“The technology we use to analyze that data has come a long way as well,” he adds. “We’ve gotten much better at collecting and aggregating the data from multiple machines on the operation, and then overlaying that with yield data and field maps to allow farmers to see all the conditions that may be affecting their yield. It’s moving past the machinery data and into more of the farming and agronomic data.”
Any farmer can then use that data to help improve their yields and return on investment. A 4G update will get farmers into the Case IH Connect Portal with an AFS Connect subscription. That will let farmers take advantage of the new 4G technology and the benefits that come with it.
Planting crops and grain stocks were a topic of conversation in the markets this week. The USDA issued its Prospective Planting and Stocks Reports, with the biggest surprise coming from the planting numbers. Corn planting is estimated at 91.1 million acres, up less than one percent from a year ago. Mike Zuzolo is the President of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas. He says the trade was expecting more corn acres in the report.
“I think that’s right. Look at the news wire estimates. The lowest number we saw was down around 91 million acres. I don’t publish to the newswires anymore because the algo-traders use them to position themselves before the numbers come out. I send stuff out to the producers and investors that I work with. So, I was below 92 and having a really tough time going above 91.5.”
He says one reason farmers may be shying away from more corn acres is the quickly rising cost of inputs. However, corn wasn’t the only surprise in the planting report.
“What was surprising to me is how did the soybeans come in at 87.6 million planted, when the trade, including myself, were closer to 89 and 90 million. What happened was most of the other producers in other parts of the country, including the cotton producer, the sorghum producer, and the rice producer all ‘stayed in their lane’ this year and they kept planting what they normally produce. I think this brings with it a little more questioning, especially with that Deep South looking wetter than normal from the Tennessee River Valley down to Louisiana, so we’re going to have to keep an eye on that because soybean acres could grow, similar to the way corn acres could grow because the of the way the weather is shaping up.”
He says the Deep South weather picture looks wet, while the main corn and soybean areas, especially in the Plains States, are leaning toward a drier pattern.
Zuzolo was disappointed in USDA’s prediction of 46.4 million all-wheat acres, the fourth-lowest planted area since records began in 1919.
“I think the big thing we saw in the planting that I’ll wrap up with, and this is where we have a leader to the downside, and that is the wheat market. We wanted it to be the leader to the upside with the drought in the High Plains and Central Plains and in the hard red wheat belt specifically, driving prices higher and make corn that much more expensive, not allowing wheat to get into a feed category. But unfortunately, we are seeing the wheat-corn spread dip into the 50-60-cent per bushel range. Soft red wheat minus corn, that is feed category for wheat, that is the lowest since late 2017.”
Corn planting totaled 91.1 million acres, up less than one percent from a year ago. Soybeans are estimated at 87.6 million acres, up five percent. All wheat acres are 46.4 million, up five percent. The all-cotton planting projection for 2021 is 12 million acres, one percent lower than last year.
The Stocks Report showed corn stocks down three percent from last year, soybean stocks down 31 percent, and all wheat stocks were seven percent lower than 2020.
“I was glad that the soybeans came in a little bit higher and would rather have it that way, and the wheat a little bit higher than the corn. The corn came in at 67 million bushels, 37 million bushels light, versus the average trade guess. And so, that keeps your old crop corn well bid.”
Corn in all positions totaled 7.7 billion bushels, down three percent from last year. Soybeans stored in all positions were 1.56 billion bushels, 31 percent lower than last March. All wheat stored in positions totaled 1.31 billion bushels, seven percent lower than last year. Durum wheat stocks in all positions were 42.7 billion bushels, 17 percent lower than last year.
Again, that’s Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics in Kansas.
CFAP continues to expand its assistance to American farmers and ranchers.
Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue announced that his agency is making more commodities eligible for assistance under the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program. The USDA is also extending the application deadline for the program to September 11. After the agency looked through over 1,700 public comments and other data, the move means more farmers and ranchers will get the assistance they need to help keep their operations afloat through tough times.
“We are standing with America’s farmers and ranchers to ensure they get through this pandemic and continue to produce enough food and fiber to feed America and the world,” Perdue says. “That is why he authorized this $16 billion worth of direct support in the CFAP program and today we are pleased to add additional commodities eligible to receive much needed assistance. CFAP is just one of the many ways USDA is helping producers weather the impacts of the pandemic. USDA is leveraging many tools to help producers, including deferring payments on loans and adding flexibilities to crop insurance and reporting deadlines
Background:
USDA collected comments and supporting data for consideration of additional commodities through June 22, 2020. The following additional commodities are now eligible for CFAP:
· Specialty Crops – Aloe leaves, bananas, batatas, bok choy, carambola (star fruit), cherimoya, chervil (French parsley), citron, curry leaves, daikon, dates, dill, donqua (winter melon), dragon fruit (red pitaya), endive, escarole, filberts, frisee, horseradish, kohlrabi, kumquats, leeks, mamey sapote, maple sap (for maple syrup), mesculin mix, microgreens, nectarines, parsley, persimmons, plantains, pomegranates, pummelos, pumpkins, rutabagas, shallots, tangelos, turnips/celeriac, turmeric, upland/winter cress, water cress, yautia/malanga, and yuca/cassava.
· Non-Specialty Crops and Livestock – Liquid eggs, frozen eggs, and all sheep. Only lambs and yearlings (sheep less than two years old) were previously eligible.
· Aquaculture – catfish, crawfish, largemouth bass and carp sold live as food fish, hybrid striped bass, red drum, salmon, sturgeon, tilapia, trout, ornamental/tropical fish, and recreational sportfish.
· Nursery Crops and Flowers – nursery crops and cut flowers.
Other changes to CFAP include:
· Seven commodities – onions (green), pistachios, peppermint, spearmint, walnuts and watermelons – are now eligible for Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Stability (CARES) Act funding for sales losses. Originally, these commodities were only eligible for payments on marketing adjustments.
· Correcting payment rates for onions (green), pistachios, peppermint, spearmint, walnuts, and watermelons.
To ensure availability of funding, producers with approved applications initially received 80 percent of their payments. The Farm Service Agency (FSA) will automatically issue the remaining 20 percent of the calculated payment to eligible producers. Going forward, producers who apply for CFAP will receive 100 percent of their total payment, not to exceed the payment limit, when their applications are approved.
Applying for CFAP:
Producers, especially those who have not worked with FSA previously, can call 877-508-8364 to begin the application process. An FSA staff member will help producers start their application during the phone call.
On farmers.gov/cfap, producers can:
Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue announced that his agency is making more commodities eligible for assistance under the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program. The USDA is also extending the application deadline for the program to September 11. After the agency looked through over 1,700 public comments and other data, the move means more farmers and ranchers will get the assistance they need to help keep their operations afloat through tough times.
“We are standing with America’s farmers and ranchers to ensure they get through this pandemic and continue to produce enough food and fiber to feed America and the world,” Perdue says. “That is why he authorized this $16 billion worth of direct support in the CFAP program and today we are pleased to add additional commodities eligible to receive much needed assistance. CFAP is just one of the many ways USDA is helping producers weather the impacts of the pandemic. USDA is leveraging many tools to help producers, including deferring payments on loans and adding flexibilities to crop insurance and reporting deadlines.”
Background:
USDA collected comments and supporting data for consideration of additional commodities through June 22, 2020. The following additional commodities are now eligible for CFAP:
· Specialty Crops – aloe leaves, bananas, batatas, bok choy, carambola (star fruit), cherimoya, chervil (French parsley), citron, curry leaves, daikon, dates, dill, donqua (winter melon), dragon fruit (red pitaya), endive, escarole, filberts, frisee, horseradish, kohlrabi, kumquats, leeks, mamey sapote, maple sap (for maple syrup), mesculin mix, microgreens, nectarines, parsley, persimmons, plantains, pomegranates, pummelos, pumpkins, rutabagas, shallots, tangelos, turnips/celeriac, turmeric, upland/winter cress, water cress, yautia/malanga, and yuca/cassava.
· Non-Specialty Crops and Livestock – liquid eggs, frozen eggs, and all sheep. Only lambs and yearlings (sheep less than two years old) were previously eligible.
· Aquaculture – catfish, crawfish, largemouth bass and carp sold live as food fish, hybrid striped bass, red drum, salmon, sturgeon, tilapia, trout, ornamental/tropical fish, and recreational sportfish.
· Nursery Crops and Flowers – nursery crops and cut flowers.
Other changes to CFAP include:
· Seven commodities – onions (green), pistachios, peppermint, spearmint, walnuts and watermelons – are now eligible for Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Stability (CARES) Act funding for sales losses. Originally, these commodities were only eligible for payments on marketing adjustments.
· Correcting payment rates for onions (green), pistachios, peppermint, spearmint, walnuts, and watermelons.
To ensure availability of funding, producers with approved applications initially received 80 percent of their payments. The Farm Service Agency (FSA) will automatically issue the remaining 20 percent of the calculated payment to eligible producers. Going forward, producers who apply for CFAP will receive 100 percent of their total payment, not to exceed the payment limit, when their applications are approved.
Applying for CFAP:
Producers, especially those who have not worked with FSA previously, can call 877-508-8364 to begin the application process. An FSA staff member will help producers start their application during the phone call.
On farmers.gov/cfap, producers can:
· Download the AD-3114 application form and manually complete the form to submit to their local USDA Service Center by mail, electronically or by hand delivery to their local office or office drop box.
· Complete the application form using the CFAP Application Generator and Payment Calculator. This Excel workbook allows customers to input information specific to their operation to determine estimated payments and populate the application form, which can be printed, then signed and submitted to their local USDA Service Center.
· If producers have login credentials known as eAuthentication, they can use the online CFAP Application Portal to certify eligible commodities online, digitally sign applications and submit directly to the local USDA Service Center.
All other eligibility forms, such as those related to adjusted gross income and payment information, can be downloaded from farmers.gov/cfap. For existing FSA customers, these documents are likely already on file.
All USDA Service Centers are open for business, including some that are open to visitors to conduct business in person by appointment only. All Service Center visitors wishing to conduct business with FSA, Natural Resources Conservation Service or any other Service Center agency should call ahead and schedule an appointment. Service Centers that are open for appointments will pre-screen visitors based on health concerns or recent travel, and visitors must adhere to social distancing guidelines. Visitors are also required to wear a face covering during their appointment. Our program delivery staff will be in the office, and they will be working with our producers in the office, by phone and using online tools. More information can be found at farmers.gov/coronavirus.
· Download the AD-3114 application form and manually complete the form to submit to their local USDA Service Center by mail, electronically or by hand delivery to their local office or office drop box.
· Complete the application form using the CFAP Application Generator and Payment Calculator. This Excel workbook allows customers to input information specific to their operation to determine estimated payments and populate the application form, which can be printed, then signed and submitted to their local USDA Service Center.
· If producers have login credentials known as eAuthentication, they can use the online CFAP Application Portal to certify eligible commodities online, digitally sign applications and submit directly to the local USDA Service Center.
All other eligibility forms, such as those related to adjusted gross income and payment information, can be downloaded from farmers.gov/cfap. For existing FSA customers, these documents are likely already on file.
Seed packages that Minnesotans didn’t order are still coming into the state in steady numbers from China. Many of the seeds are non-invasive species. However, that doesn’t mean they can’t carry some kind of a pest or disease with them.
Reports are still coming into the Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) that say citizens continue getting unsolicited seed packages in the mail. To date, over 700 Minnesotans found the seeds in their mailboxes and reported it to the MDA.
The packages contain a variety of seeds. Seed analysts at the MDA Laboratory say some of the seeds are cosmos, radish, mung bean, juniper, basil, cucurbit, and zinnia. Seeds like these are not invasive plants. However, they can carry disease and pests can hide in packaging. The unsolicited seeds likely haven’t gone through proper inspection channels to enter the country legally. The labels typically say something like jewelry is inside.
The MDA is working with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on the issue. Minnesota is sending all the collected seeds to the USDA for additional identification and destruction. Federal officials are investigating the source of the seeds, and the USDA is currently referring to the situation as a “brushing scam.” In that type of scam, people get unsolicited items from a seller who then posts false customer reviews to boost sales. Their latest statement on the seed packages can be found here.
Those receiving the packages have indicated they either never made an online seed order or they purchased seeds online earlier in the year but never got them. Their order information indicates it is still unfulfilled.
Minnesotans should take the following steps to deal with unsolicited packages of seeds.
Save the seeds and the package they came in, including the mailing label.
Do not open the seed packets.
Do not plant any of the seeds.
In case the package is already open, place all materials (seeds and packaging) into a tightly-sealed plastic bag.
If you have planted the seeds you received, please destroy any plants that have germinated. Plants and soil aren’t eligible for most trash collection. However, in this unusual situation, pull up the plants, double bag them and the surrounding soil, and dispose of everything in the trash. Do not compost the seeds, plants, or soil. Please notify the MDA if you have disposed of any seeds or plants through our contact form.
You should always buy seeds from a reputable source. Minnesota law says all seeds sold in the state need correct labels. People selling seeds need to have a permit from the MDA. You can look up seed permit holders on the MDA website. Never plant unlabeled or unknown seeds.
Nitrogen fertilizer is a valuable tool in a farmer’s soil management toolbox. Farmers need to know there are some restrictions on that tool coming soon.
The Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) reminds farmers and landowners that beginning September 1, 2020, applying nitrogen fertilizer in the fall and on frozen soil will be restricted in areas vulnerable to groundwater contamination. This applies to Drinking Water Supply Management Areas (DWSMAs) with elevated nitrate levels. Vulnerable groundwater areas include coarse textured soils, karst geology, and shallow bedrock. Approximately 12 to 13 percent of Minnesota’s cropland is vulnerable to groundwater contamination. The Groundwater Protection Rule website shows vulnerable groundwater areas and a list of exceptions to the restrictions.
A short video on the fall restrictions and links for additional information are available on the MDA website. The MDA is holding a webinar on August 12, 2020, from 10:00 to 11:00 a.m. to answer questions. The video and webinar details are available online.
The nitrogen fertilizer restrictions are part of the Groundwater Protection Rule. The rule minimizes potential fertilizer sources of nitrate pollution to the state’s groundwater and works with local farmers to prevent nitrate contamination in public water supply wells.
Dicamba products; So can Minnesota farmers use it or not? That Ninth Circuit Court Ruling last week left a lot of producers in limbo. Here’s the latest update from the Minnesota Department of Agriculture.
Upon further review of state law and while awaiting guidance from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on the ruling of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals regarding dicamba products, the Minnesota Department of Agriculture will continue operating under existing pesticide program authorities. According to Minnesota law, an unregistered pesticide previously registered in the state may be used following the cancellation of the registration of the pesticide.
At this time Minnesota farmers can use XtendiMax with VaporGrip Technology (EPA Reg. No. 524-617), Engenia Herbicide (EPA Reg. No. 7969-345), and DuPont FeXapan with VaporGrip Technology (EPA Reg. No. 352-913) while following all federal and Minnesota label requirements. (Tavium Plus VaporGrip Technology (EPA Reg. No. 100-1623) was not part of the two-year federal registration and can still be used according to the label). The Department does not anticipate taking enforcement action against those who continue to appropriately use these products. This may change at any time pending additional guidance from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
“The Circuit Court of Appeals decision to revoke the use of these products was, unfortunately, very untimely for our farmers as many had already purchased the herbicide for this growing season,” said Minnesota Agriculture Commissioner Thom Petersen. “Timing is critical for farmers to apply the products and our further interpretation of Minnesota law allows us to use these products.”
As a reminder, all dicamba pesticide applicators in Minnesota must follow use instructions on the product label including the timing restrictions below. Dicamba products cannot be applied to dicamba-tolerant (DT) soybeans in Minnesota if any of the following conditions has occurred. Whichever cutoff time occurs first will determine whether a person can apply a given product to DT soybeans until June 20, 2020.
Forty-five (45) days after planting. The federal labels for XtendiMax, Engenia, FeXapan, and Tavium prohibit application more than 45 days after planting.
Once the R1 growth stage begins (beginning bloom). The federal labels for XtendiMax, Engenia, and FeXapan prohibit this. The R1 stage is when at least 1 flower appears on the plant on any node on the main stem.
After the V4 growth stage. The federal label for Tavium prohibits application after the V4 growth stage.
After June 20, 2020. The Minnesota Special Local Need (SLN) label, which must be in possession of the applicator at the time of application, prohibits this for all four dicamba products. The SLN labels are available on the MDA website at mda.state.mn.us/24c
In Minnesota, all four dicamba products are “Restricted Use Pesticides” for retail sale to, and for use only by, certified applicators who have complete dicamba or auxin-specific training.
Tree of heaven (Ailanthus altissima) is a deciduous tree native to China, Taiwan, and Vietnam. It was brought to the U.S. in the late 1700s as an ornamental shade tree. Today this tree is found in most of the Continental U.S., Hawaii, and Canada. It looks similar to staghorn sumac, ash, and walnut and has a strong, offensive odor that some describe as being similar to rotting peanuts. In 2020, the Minnesota Department of Agriculture changed the regulated noxious weed designation of tree of heaven from Restricted to Prohibited Eradicate, meaning that all tree of heaven plants must be eliminated.
Tree of heaven is fast growing, can reach 90 feet in height, and live 30 to 70 years. This species is highly adaptable and tolerant of disturbance. It is dioecious, meaning there are separate male and female plants. Female plants produce prolific amounts of seed, up to 325,000 seeds per year. Tree of heaven spreads aggressively in response to above-ground cutting or root breaking. Root fragments found in infested soil may start new populations.
Tree of heaven is the preferred host for the invasive spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula). Spotted lanternfly can attack over 65 tree species, including trees grown in Minnesota. Spotted lanternfly was detected in Pennsylvania in 2014 and has spread to surrounding states over the last several years, but it has not been found in Minnesota.
Tree of heaven may play a particularly important role in the spotted lanternfly lifecycle. To date, only two tree of heaven plants have been found in Minnesota, and both populations were eradicated. It is unknown if the absence of tree of heaven will affect the ability of spotted lanternfly to establish in this state. If you suspect that you have found a tree of heaven or spotted lanternfly:
Note the exact location with address or GPS coordinates.
If it is possible, take digital photos of the tree – whole plant, rosettes, flowers, and seed stalks – and suspected spotted lanternfly that can be emailed for identification.
Infestations can be reported to one of two places:
The Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) by email at arrest.the.pest@state.mn.us or voicemail 1-888-545-6684
Directly to EDDMapS through the Great Lakes Early Detection Network app on a smartphone or tablet.
To learn more about the MDA’s Noxious and Invasive Weed Program and the Noxious Weed Law and Lists, please visit: www.mda.state.mn.us/weedcontrol
Frost in the forecast is rarely a good thing in farm country during any season outside of winter. In an ideal world, the only exception is a killing frost after corn states hit black layer. Of course, we don’t always live in an ideal world, do we? Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, is a long-time agricultural meteorologist who says the threat of some frost damage will begin this weekend.
“The days most in question are Friday night, May 8, into Saturday morning,” he said. “The axis of the coldest air will come across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, east-to-northeast Iowa, northern Illinois, most of Indiana, as well as all of Michigan and Ohio. This is the zone where we’ll see temperatures at 30 degrees or colder.”
He said the coldest air looks to hit Michigan and Ohio this weekend, where we could see some big impact on soft red winter wheat, especially in Ohio. The frost timing is not good as wheat has woken up out of winter dormancy and is moving forward through its growth stages.
“The wheat is at the jointing stage and anytime the crop gets further into its growth, that means the wheat is a little more susceptible to cold temperatures,” Martin said, “depending on how much the temps fall and how long they’re under a certain threshold.
“If wheat is just breaking dormancy and you get a cold snap, you have to be under 28 degrees anywhere between three and five hours,” he added. “When we get into the jointing stage and further along, wheat can barely handle 30 degrees for an hour or two. That’s where the issue lies on wheat this weekend.”
Corn and soybeans will hopefully be a different story. Based on the crop planting progress and emergence reports, Martin, Chief Meteorologist for the Hoosier Ag Today Radio Network, is much more optimistic about those crops being able to survive the freezing temps.
“Illinois leads the way with nine percent of its corn crop emerged,” he said. “In most areas, the growing point of the crop is still going to be below ground, so I don’t think it will mean anything for corn and soybeans on mortality. What it does do is slow down that incredibly fast-paced planting season we’ve seen in many states.”
A couple of other examples include Iowa, which was on a record planting pace during the last planting update, while Minnesota just to the north is no slouch either on planting progress. The Purdue University meteorology graduate says all of the “good stuff” that comes with early-planted corn gets slowed down and “stunted” because of the frost/freeze over the weekend and the extended run of below-normal temps that won’t end till the middle of next week.
“Cold air moved out of Canada and focused on the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and the northeastern United States,” Martin said. “However, there’s an interesting twist ahead in the forecast for the next seven-to-ten days. We’ll start to see temperatures in the below-normal areas start to moderate on May 13 through 15.
“Things will take a drastic switch after that,” he added. “We’ll see above-normal temps in the Eastern Corn Belt, while the Plains may drop down below normal through the last part of May. There’s a lot of air currents, different movements here, different patterns trying to emerge, and it all has to do with where polar air is shifting to this time of year.”
It’s been a bit of an unusual spring so far for many reasons, but I’m just talking about the weather. What we’ve seen so far in terms of temps and precipitation has been very different from recent years. There’s no question, a lot of states have seen temperatures consistently lower than what they normally expect.
“Big swings in spring temps aren’t unusual,” says Martin. “We’ve certainly seen them before. I think the reason it’s coming home to roost a little bit more and has people scratching their heads is the degree of change from the last several years.
“We’ve had pretty dog-gone decent springs over the past handful of years,” he recalled. “We’ve come out of winter early and been able to hit the ground running based on the temps. Last year, precipitation was a big problem, but the temperatures were still decent. This year is the first out of the past five or so that’s really showed us the kind of variability we can see in the spring.”
Ryan will do custom forecasts for your radio and TV stations. Check out his work at www.weatherstud.com.
Farmer optimism is in the dumper and there is no nice way to say it. COVID-19 and its economic impact, low commodity prices, trade wars, and weather have made life even more challenging. DTN found out that farmer optimism is at a record low. They’ve been doing a tri-annual survey of farmers for several years and this spring’s Agricultural Confidence Index hit an all-time low mark.
The baseline for their survey is 100. Everything below 100 is pessimistic, and any number above 100 is considered optimistic.
“We do our survey in the spring, just before planting,” said DTN Editor-In-Chief Greg Horstmeier. “We also do one at harvest, and then our final survey is in December, which is basically farm tax time. The drop in the index from the last time we did this in December is not a surprise, given everything that’s going on.
“It was a record-sized drop down to an index reading of 67,” he added. “That’s a 97-point drop, which is even more remarkable because we’re hearing that agriculture is moving on as normal. Everyone is either getting ready to or heading out into the field, so that big of a damper on the survey results is surprising.”
Horstmeier said spring is typically the most optimistic time of the year for farmers. New crops are going into the ground, which automatically means a fresh start, especially if the year before was as tough as 2019. Low optimism in the spring isn’t unusual. What’s unusual about this survey is how pessimistic farmers are about the future outlook.
The future outlook is typically very optimistic during the spring survey. “This year, that index reading was 73, which means it dove hard into negative territory,” Horstmeier said. “That was the big takeaway for me. Not only does the current situation have farmers in a pessimistic state of mind, but they don’t have a lot of promise for the foreseeable future.”
Another thing that really stood out was just how prevalent the pessimism is in different sectors of agriculture. It didn’t matter what farmers grew or how big their operations were, either. Even in down years, there’s typically difference worth noting.
“We typically see at least some differences between, for example, livestock and crop producers,” Horstmeier said. “We’ve also seen regional differences, such as the Midwest may be less optimistic than farmers in the Southeast. The pessimism was across the board, regardless of location, income level, the crops they grew, and what kind of enterprises they had.”
Speaking of Midwest farmers, in this year’s survey they showed the most pessimism currently, yet they also had the most optimism for the future. Southeastern farmers were more optimistic about their current conditions (89) but felt less optimism for their future (56).
DTN also conducts a similar survey of agribusinesses. The index level came in at a just-above-neutral 104. Agribusinesses rated their current conditions at a slightly pessimistic 85. However, they were above neutral when looking at the future, coming in at 118.