agronomy | Field 2 Field

April 4, 2022April 4, 2022

Soybean Harvest Disappoints South American Farmers

The South American soybean harvest is on the mind of many in the commodity markets this time of year. One expert says the Brazilian soybean harvest was about three-quarters complete, and, as of last week, the results may be a dramatic step down from last year. That could mean extra export opportunities for American soybeans in the months ahead.

Michael Cordonnier is an agronomist with Corn and Soybean Advisors, Incorporated, in Hinsdale, Illinois. The Brazil soybean harvest is 75-80 percent complete, and the Safriña, or second-corn crop, is all but completed at 99 percent after getting planted in the optimal window of time.

“I think the weather has been pretty good to allow the second-corn crop to get in the ground,” Cordonnier said while on the phone from his office in Illinois. “It’s off to a good start, but there’s still a long way to go. However, the market seems pretty confident that we’ll see a good-sized Safriña corn crop.”

In fact, he says there’s so much optimism around the potential of the corn crop that it’s pressuring Brazil’s domestic corn prices. There’s even more pressure on their domestic corn prices because the Brazilian real is strengthening when compared to the dollar. He said it’s trading at about 4.7 to the dollar, the strongest it’s been in a year.

“The South American market, at least in Brazil, is very confident that we could see a corn crop that’s 25 million tons larger than last year,” he said. “There is some concern about potential frost late in the season before the crop matures.

“La Niña is still out there,” Cordonnier added, “and it’s going to stay a couple of more months. That generally results in earlier-than-normal frost. Any frost, at all, before the end of June is important for the Safriña crop in Brazil.”

The pace is a lot slower in Argentina, where the South American crop expert says the corn is about ten percent harvested while the soybean crop is less than five percent in the bin. Early yields continue to be disappointing, early on, so he said it remains to be seen what will happen in Argentina.

South American growing areas struggled with a drought that, in some cases, stretched back to 2021 and earlier. He said some of those same areas are starting to see some rainfall. However, many areas are still looking for a consistent drink of water to recharge their soils.

The Brazilian soybean harvest may be disappointing, but the second corn crop is off to a good start, even though there’s a long way to maturity. (Photo from wikipedia)

“There’s still some dryness in east-central Brazil,” he said, “including the corn-producing states of Goias and Minas Gerais. It remains to be seen if the dryness gets resolved, but I’m not optimistic as South America is getting closer to what’s typically a dry season.

“The last summer rains usually occur in early May, so there’s a month or two left in the summer rainy season,” he added. “But it’s getting better.”

Cordonnier predicts a Brazil soybean harvest of 123 million tons, within a narrow range of an upside of 124 and a downside of 120. However, he says farmers are “pretty close” to being done with results in the low 120s. He predicts an Argentine soybean harvest of 39 million tons. “I’m a little bit on the low side,” he said. “But I expect the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to lower their soybean number as well.

“I expect Brazil’s farmers to produce 112 million tons of corn,” Cordonnier said. “We’ll see what the weather does to and for the Safriña corn crop. In Argentina, I stayed at 49 million tons for their corn harvest, and the Grain Exchange agrees with me as they lowered their prediction to 49 million. I thought they should have been at that number a long time ago.”

His numbers continue to get narrower for both corn and soybeans in each country. The overall South American soybean crop is going to be down by a big number from last year.

“I have the South American soybean harvest at 171.6 million tons compared to 198 million last year,” Cordonnier said. “That’s down about 26 million tons from last year, which is a significant drop. The news is better for the South American corn crop, which I have at 167 million tons, compared to last year’s harvest of 143 million.

“That’s up a good amount from last year,” he added. “That jump happened because the Safriña corn crop was such a disaster in 2021. Corn will be better than last year, and soybeans will be worse than last year: It’s the reverse of what we had last year in South America.”

Does that mean some soybean export opportunities for the U.S. this year? It’s likely, but Cordonnier says the war in Ukraine and its impact on global commodity markets makes it hard to know for sure what’s ahead for the remainder of 2022.

September 22, 2021September 22, 2021

Dry Weather in Time for 2021 Harvest

Dry weather is a never-ending talker at the local coffee shops during the growing season, but even more during harvest. Farmers can get a lot of work done in a short time if the weather stays dry. John Baranick (rhymes with ”mechanic”) is a meteorologist with DTN, who says things might be a little drier as harvest continues to speed up across most of farm country.

Drying Off for Harvest

“A high-pressure ridge will continue to move into the Pacific Northwest and will block a lot of moisture from reaching the Upper Midwest for several days,” Baranick says. “Now through the last week of September should be pretty good for getting out there and harvesting the crops.”

The 2021 drought dried out a big chunk of rural America this year, but over the last several weeks, much of the American farm country saw consistent rainfall. Baranick, an Iowa State University graduate with degrees in meteorology and agronomy, says the consistent rain has recharged at least some of the deficit in soil moisture.

“It has,” he said. “We’ve seen some good rainfall in Minnesota, Iowa, the eastern Dakotas, Wisconsin, and Eastern Nebraska over the past several weeks. The level of drought keeps getting reduced in many of those areas. Some areas in the category of D3 drought were eliminated in northeastern South Dakota and northwest Iowa.

“Unfortunately, most of these areas have been so far behind on rainfall that getting almost a summer’s worth of rainfall in a month wasn’t enough to eliminate the drought,” Baranick added.

He estimates that dry weather has put most areas around 6 to 8 inches behind on their average rainfall totals. It’s even worse in western South Dakota. “I was talking to someone that farms out there, and he’s 10 inches behind on their average rainfall total,” he added. “We’re way behind, and it’s going to take a lot of rain to reverse that trend.”

Baranick, a meteorologist with DTN since 2011, says the fall season will have a lot of variability in the systems moving through rural America. Early September featured some good rainfall, but for the rest of September into October and November, he says they don’t see a strong signal either way of above-normal precipitation that will eat into some of that dryness.

“Some areas may improve a bit while others could degrade,” he said. “I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of movement either way through the fall season. We also don’t see a lot of moisture recharge during the winter season either,” Baranick said.

“Even with good precipitation over the winter, an extra inch or two isn’t going to bite into the five, six, or even eight inches of rainfall deficit we’re looking at,” he said. “We’re going to be dependent here in all these drier areas across the Western Corn Belt, especially the Northwest Corn Belt, for recharging our soil moisture and getting next season’s crop off to a good start.”

Plains Staying Dry Too

Dry weather is affecting he Great Plains from southern Nebraska down through Texas, which makes up the country’s largest winter wheat-producing area. A recent look at the Drought Monitor showed drier areas spreading out quite a bit across even more of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas.

“We’re looking for some rainfall in many of these areas because it’s also been hot,” Baranick said. “The temps have been above 90 and approaching 100 degrees on many days. The temps have been way above normal, and it’s sucking the moisture right out of the soil. Unfortunately, any systems potentially coming through this week don’t look like they have a lot of moisture.”

The Plains State have been and still are quite dry in 2021. (Photo from bismarktribune.com)

He says that high pressure setting up in the western U.S. will help keep systems at bay in much of the Plains as well. Unfortunately, the above-normal temps and dry weather in the forecast will continue to sap the remaining soil moisture.

Looking ahead to the fall and winter seasons in the south, we’re heading into a La Niña weather pattern, which typically means warm and dry weather in southern states. These areas seeing their soil moisture drying away don’t have a lot of immediate hope for building that back into the soil.

“For wheat production in the Plains, we’re going to be dependent on moisture coming into the region,” he said. “Hopefully, fall rains will be timely enough to get some good root development in wheat through the fall before they go dormant in the winter.

“We’re hoping that the rains turn on right away when we get out of the La Niña in the spring,” Baranick added. “If we don’t, the winter wheat crop in the Plains is going to be hurting.”

South Finally Drying Up After Storms

Hurricane Ida and Tropical Storm Nicholas brought a lot of extra water to the Southern States and the Delta Region. Moisture coming into the region off the Gulf of Mexico was difficult to turn off.

Hurricane Ida, followed by Tropical Storm Nicholas, brought far too much moisture and damage in the south. Drier weather is on the way, so hopefully cotton and soybeans can dry out in time for harvest. (Photo from wkrg.com)

“We will see some dry weather conditions finally get into the South,” he said. “That’s good because it’s going to take a bit for soybeans and cotton to dry off.”

July 21, 2020July 21, 2020

Invasive weeds found in Winona County

Invasive weeds make yet another first appearance in southeast Minnesota. The Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) has positively identified the invasive weed Palmer amaranth in Winona County.

The MDA was contacted by crop consultants after they discovered several suspect plants in a soybean field. MDA staff scouted the area and removed 20 Palmer amaranth plants, which were then confirmed as Palmer by genetic testing. The field has since been treated with a herbicide application, and follow-up scouting by the MDA did not find any new invasive weeds. The site will be monitored for three years for any new Palmer amaranth.

The MDA is trying to determine the source of the invasive weed.

Now is the time when Palmer amaranth becomes visible in agricultural fields. The MDA is asking farmers, crop consultants, and agronomists to report any suspicious plants to the Minnesota Department of Agriculture’s Arrest the Pest line at 1-888-545-6684 or arrest.the.pest@state.mn.us.

If you’re one of the fortunate ones who haven’t seen Palmer Amaranth show up in your fields, here’s a quick refresher on identifying the plant, courtesy of Purdue University.

Since it was first discovered in the state in 2016, Palmer amaranth has been found in nine Minnesota counties, including Winona County. Details of previous finds can be found on the MDA website.

Palmer amaranth is listed as a noxious weed in Minnesota. All above and below ground parts of the plant must be destroyed, and it cannot be moved. The weed is also listed as a prohibited weed seed in the state. This means no Palmer amaranth is allowed in any seed offered for sale in Minnesota.

Left uncontrolled, a single female Palmer amaranth plant typically produces 100,000-500,000 seeds. It is resistant to multiple herbicides, can cause substantial yield losses, and greatly increase weed management costs in soybeans and corn.