crops | Field 2 Field

December 4, 2023December 4, 2023

2023, the Ag Economy, and a New Year Ahead

What’s the first thing that comes to mind when I say, “Describe the year 2023 farm economy in one word?” Actually, I’m not sure one word would be adequate, especially if you live and work in rural America. The best way to describe 2023 in the agricultural community for many may be “Is it 2024 yet?”

Ag Economy, 2023 — In today’s ag economy, 2023 saw many of us pinching pennies to grow crops.

Dave Widmar is an agricultural economist with Agricultural Economic Insights in West Lafayette, Indiana, and keeps a close eye on the ag economy. We had a conversation during the last National Association of Farm Broadcasting Annual Convention in Kansas City in November, a week before Thanksgiving.

“One of the biggest stories of 2023 is declining net farm income,” Widmar says as the crowd in the Trade Talk event walked by in the background. “That’s not a big shocker to most people in rural America, but we have to put it in perspective. It’s still historically high, so we need to bring it into balance.”

Unfortunately, that income balance doesn’t apply equally to all parts of farm country. He said the Midwest and the Corn Belt did especially well during the last three years combined. In fact, he called the last three years (2021-2023) the “best three-year run” since the 1940s.

“On the other side of the narrative, commodity prices have trended lower,” he said, “especially on corn. We also had another year of below trendline yields combined with higher interest rates.”

AEI isn’t necessarily watching the interest rates the general public hears about during the evening news. Those are the short-term rates the Fed adjusts at their meetings, and, since June, the Fed has raised short-term rates 25 basis points. “On the other hand, long-term rates have increased 150 basis points,” he said.

“That may continue into 2024 as that yield curve un-inverts as we move into a different economy next year,” Widmar said. “As the Fed spent time raising rates, the curve got inverted, meaning short-term interest rates got more expensive than long-term rates. This is often thought of as an indicator that recession may be coming.”

2023 ag economy — The 2023 farm economy showed producers it’s time to keep a tight reign on how they use debt.

Now the Fed has paused interest rate hikes, the long-term interest rates have continued higher. That means the yield curve is starting to un-invert, something he’ll continue watching.

There is some good news for the economy. The unemployment rate remains low, which is a positive trend, and inflation has come down “significantly.” In his words, “the genie isn’t back in the bottle yet.” The country isn’t back to two percent inflation, and the last 150 basis points on inflation are going to be the hardest to reduce. “A lot of moving pieces in 2023,” he added.

So, what do those moving pieces possibly mean for 2024? For those looking for the economy to settle down, they may be disappointed. Widmar said “hold on.”

“The volatility is probably going to continue,” he said ruefully. “That isn’t all bad. Despite record fertilizer prices, the uncertainty around usage, demand, and inflation, the farm economy had a good run between 2011 and 2023.

“We could see some reversion to the mean,” Widmar added. “Farm incomes might be lower next year but not necessarily historically bad. What we need to realize is the last three years are not normal.”

The last three years weren’t typical in terms of government payments, commodity prices, or profitability. Widmar says it’s time to start recalibrating our expectations as to what’s normal and what we should plan on being normal in the future. Speaking of the future, what should producers be thinking about heading into next year?

“One of the big things we’re keeping an eye on is acreage distribution,” Widmar said. “There’s always at least some reallocation. One of the things that we observed in 2023 was that we had a lot of corn acres and not as many soybean acres. That’s resulted in an imbalance in ending stocks.”

That’s put corn ending stocks are above the long-run average, closer to 15 percent than the average of 13 percent. Soybeans are closer to five or six percent instead of the long-run average of eight.

“That means we may see some acreage reallocation,” Widmar said. “Producers should keep an eye on the relative price ratio and how that’s going to impact their budgets.

“They also need to keep an eye on fertilizer expenses,” he added. “Fertilizer has come down a lot recently, and that’s going to benefit corn budgets quite a bit.”

Another thing to watch for is farm debt. One of the things the economists at AEI have observed is new farm loans with different terms than in the past. Take a machinery loan, for example. The payment terms have been stretched out. How does that affect the bottom line?

“For every $1,000 of farm debt one takes on, the payments are going to be about the same as they were the last few years,” he said. “The payment hasn’t changed. What’s changed is the ‘stretching out,’ which means more payments get added to the backside. The extra interest expense is backloaded into the form of additional payments.”

Interest expenses are increasing as we go forward, and it will take more payments to maintain the same level of debt that farmers have had in the past. He said a lot of the economic challenges we face today may be getting “kicked down the road.” But there is one good sign amid some uncertainty looking to the new year and 2024 spring planting.

“Lenders are still confident and comfortable making long-term loans on things like machinery,” he said. “One of the big differences between the 1980s and today is back then, we had very high interest rates and short repayment periods. Some repayment periods lasted less than a single year.”

That created a large problem of no access to capital in the ‘80s. Today, Widmar said there’s a lot of available access to debt markets, which are very accommodating right now. But, he says, just because someone will lend to you at those terms doesn’t mean you as a farmer need to accept them. “Always be thinking about the implications of any loan terms you accept,” he added.

“Stretching the terms out has kept the payments low, but now that we’re in a high-interest environment, how are producers going to adjust,” he asked. If costs like fertilizer, electricity, or gasoline go up, Economics 101 teaches that we should be using less of each input.

“What do we do then with the higher cost of money,” he said. “Using less of an input is one particular approach. We can also shift the way we’re using money, including using more long-term debt last year and then shift it to short-term debt going forward. We always have to be evaluating how we’re using debt.”

In closing, he pointed out that agriculture hasn’t been in many rising interest rate environments in the past. The 1980s was one, and farmers and now in another. Producers need to revisit the strategies they’ve been deploying around farm finances, the use of farm debt, and their cash flow.

January 30, 2023January 30, 2023

Plant-2023 is Already Set in Stone

Plant-2023 is already on the minds of farmers across the country. As proof, Farm Futures recently did a survey of farmers in all parts of the country who will get right to work this spring. Jacqueline Holland is the grain marketing analyst for Farm Futures.

Even if wheat plant-2023 does put a cap on corn and soybean plantings, Holland says American farmers are still going to plant a whole bunch of both crops.

“For corn, we’re looking at 90.5 million acres,” she said. “For soybeans, that’s 88.9 million acres. And for winter wheat, we calculated 34.9 million acres. For spring wheat, which includes hard red spring, white spring, and durum wheat, we’re anticipating 13.9 million acres. That gives us a grand total of 228.3 million acres for the three principal crops.”

It’s been a few years since wheat took some acres from both corn and soybeans but rising input costs and still solid prices mean a lot of farmers may be giving wheat plant-2023 a second look. She was surprised when their winter wheat calculation came in lower than USDA’s prediction issued in January.

“But if you go back at Chicago winter wheat futures prices during peak planting season last October, they were 25 percent higher than the year before,” Holland said. “At the same time, input prices for corn and beans were still rising, so maybe it shouldn’t be that surprising that wheat is drawing interest for plant-2023.”

The one thing even more surprising to her was how narrow the gap was between corn and soybean acres. It’s probably going down to the wire to see how the acres shake out. But, going into spring, it looks like farmers have already made up their minds about what and how much they’re planting in the spring.

“A lot of growers had finalized their plant-2023 rotations before 2023 even began,” she said. “Seventy percent said they already had things locked in and weren’t expecting to make any last-minute changes.”

One thing she’s going to watch closely is the soybean harvest. Holland says 88.9 million acres of soybeans have the potential to lead to a “record-large” crop. If that happens, some of the supply pressure weighing on commodity markets may ease a bit.

“However, if we see more soy crush plants coming online and increasing capacity by the time we harvest the crop, there may not be much of a price break,” she said. “That added demand could keep soybean prices high even though we could be looking at a record crop.

“That’s a big one I’m going to be watching in the coming months,” Holland said.

September 22, 2022September 22, 2022

Commodities, Sports, and Prognostication

Commodities and sports typically don’t go together most years. However, this fall, the two topics have come together in an interesting way.

Being a long-time sports broadcaster, I’ve noticed that when the major sports seasons wrap up, certain sports media love to immediately do what they call a “way-too-early” look to the next season. Evidently, it’s not just a sports thing.

I know harvest is just ramping up in many areas as I write this, but Farm Futures took what some might think is a “way-too-early” survey of planting intentions for 2023, and I couldn’t pass it up. It looks like corn will be king once again next spring among all commodities.

Commodities — Corn looks to be king when it comes to 2023 spring planting (photo from agriculture.com)

Jacqueline Holland is the grain market analyst for Farm Futures, and she wrote an article about the survey. She says the way-too-soon survey results are favoring corn for spring planting despite some challenges that come with the commodity.

“Even with higher fertilizer prices, farmers are still prepared to go all-in on corn,” she said. “Our survey found that farmers expect to plant 94.3 million acres of corn, a five percent increase from USDA’s current acreage estimates.”

If that prediction is realized, it would be the most corn planted in the U.S. since 95.4 million acres went into the ground in 2013. While soybean acres will be behind corn next year, U.S. growers are still sowing a lot of beans during spring planting in 2023.

“We expect farmers to plant 87.3 million acres of beans,” Holland said. “That’s almost a one percent decrease from this year’s acreage.” Cotton is one of the reasons that soybean acreage is going to drop a little. In the Mississippi Delta, a lot of acres in that region are going to provide “stiff competition” for soybeans during spring planting.

They also expect wheat acres to rise in 2023 thanks to more winter wheat acres in the Eastern Corn Belt. Farm Futures expects growers to plant 36.6 million acres of winter wheat. With more winter wheat acres going in the ground, spring wheat acres will back up from this year, with the 2023 estimate at 12.3 million acres.

“That means a grand total of 48.9 million acres of wheat will be planted in 2023,” she said.

Holland admits she was a little surprised at the survey results. She says there was a lot of price responsiveness to the rapidly-rising fertilizer prices heading into spring planting this year.

“When farmers were making their planting decisions in December last year, soybean prices were rallying strongly,” Holland recalled. “But with all of the issues we’ve seen with the flow of corn in the Black Sea this year, as well as the U.S. corn crop struggling with drought, corn has some bullish prospects for next year.”

She says if we do see a larger corn acreage next year, that might lead to some expansion back in the cattle market. In turn, that would likely revive some corn acreage in the Plains. Remember, about three million acres of corn went into prevent plant in the spring of this year.

“A lot of those acres were in the Dakotas and Minnesota,” she said. “Barring another bad weather event next year, I expect those acres to go back into corn in 2023.”

Farm Futures also has other questions in their survey beyond commodities and planting intentions. Those questions include where farmers are headed with input costs next year. Based on the survey responses, Holland says profit margins are going to shrink next year. The question is, how much?

“As of right now, it doesn’t look like growers are going to skimp on any fertilizer applications,” Holland said. “Most responses show farmers are ready to lock in their fertilizers at the lowest prices they can get. That will hopefully keep at least some liquidity in these crop budgets.

“We’ll see how these things ultimately shake out for planting and commodities,” she added. “There’s a long time between now and next spring.”

August 10, 2022August 11, 2022

Rain Finally Shows In Farm Country Last Weekend

Rain. Finally. Last weekend saw at least some rain in parts of farm country. Had a chance to talk with John Baranick (rhymes with mechanic), ag meteorologist for DTN, who lives just down 169 from me in Jordan, Minnesota. He says while the rain benefitted the parts of rural America stuck in a drought, other areas didn’t need a lot of rainfall.

“It wasn’t just here in southern Minnesota. We also saw that it was even heavier south of the border in Iowa, with a lot more four-to-six inch amounts there. Very helpful for some areas, but not a lot of those areas needed it. It also extended down through southern Wisconsin and into Northern Illinois. A lot of those crops, again, didn’t really need it, but it’s definitely helpful wherever it hit. And that front is starting to come through the eastern half of the Corn Belt. Again, a lot of these areas are doing much better than we are out here in the West, but Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio are all seeing bouts of rain this week. They’ve had some flooding in some of these areas, but the rainfall that’s gone through is mostly favorable. It’s just those Western states that just haven’t.”

The Dakotas saw mixed results from the weekend rain.

“South Dakota got some pretty good rainfall. The eastern half of it did, but the western half didn’t, really. North Dakota has kind of been missing out on a bunch of rain lately, although their soil moisture, for the most part, and the crop conditions are still pretty good.”

The Plains States are still struggling with drought…tape

“It’s the states of Nebraska, Kansas, kind of northern Missouri that have missed out on a lot of the rainfall even with these fronts coming through, and they’ve had a lot hotter. Temperatures have been up near or eclipsing 100 degrees very consistently all summer long, so the heat has been putting on a whole lot of stress for those areas.”

There may finally be some cooler air on the way into the Plains next week and may bring at least a little rain with that front…tape

“We’re seeing late next week, maybe mid-to-late next week, a push a cooler air move through and that’s gonna come with a bit of showers too, so it’s not a whole lot of rainfall and probably on the order for most people have a half inch or less, But the temperatures are going to cool back down. Instead of seeing highs in the 90s and up near 100. It’s more like the 70s and 80s for several days, so it’s actually gonna be below-normal temperatures for a bit. That kind of occurs late next week into the following week, so it’ll be a nice relieving break for them.

Unfortunately, many parts of rural America are still stuck in a drought. We’ll talk about that more later this week.

Again, that’s DTN ag meteorologist John Baranick

August 11, 2021August 11, 2021

Drought has Utah farmer in “survival mode”

Drought to an average person likely means “it’s dry.” And that’s fair. However, what you may not realize is drought, to a farmer, might mean “we’re struggling to stay in business because of something we literally have no control over.” It’s understandably a situation that non-farm folks have a hard time relating to.

The National Association of Farm Broadcasting’s News Service and the American Farm Bureau Federation undertook a project this month to put a human face on the challenges of drought, especially in the Western United States. That area of the country has been clobbered by a long and intense spell of dry weather.

Tyson Roberts is a farmer from Layton, Utah, who’s seen the challenge firsthand because he’s living it right now. I jumped on the phone with him on Tuesday of this week for an interview about what it’s like to face a drought of this magnitude. While drought is a big topic of conversation in 2021, he said the dry spell stretches back to 2021.

“We got started with this last year,” he recalled while on the phone from his Utah farm. “A lot of people may not realize that.”

It wasn’t quite as bad last year as it is in 2021. The water available for Roberts’ crops was below normal levels in 2020, but they still grew “pretty much” all of the crops that they would in a normal year. This year has been markedly different.

“We are a vegetable operation here,” he said, “and we grow fresh market vegetables for farmer’s markets.

“When you think about a tradition row crop farm, the producer plants in the spring and harvests in the fall,” Roberts says. “We work a little differently: we’ll start planting different vegetables in the spring and continue through most of the summer and into August.”

Their typical planting schedule came to a sudden stop. Roberts, the sixth generation of the Roberts family to work the farm in Davis County, Utah, got to the middle of June and figured out they wouldn’t have enough water to sustain the crops they have growing and grow the additional crops they’d be planting through the month of July.

“We ended up putting all of our planters away around the first of July,” he recalled. “About 20 percent of our property remained unplanted. We fallowed it because there just isn’t enough water to grow the amount of produce we normally plant in a given year.”

Drought is making the lives of farmers miserable in 2021, especially in the Western United States. (Photo from foxnews.com)

As someone who doesn’t live on a farm, imagine having to give up 20 percent of your income due to circumstances you had no control over. I don’t know about you, but a 20 percent drop in income would likely throw me out of my house and into the street.

The drought hasn’t forced Roberts to destroy any crops, but it has forced him to leave some crops in the field because they’re not harvestable quality, which amounts to the same thing. He offered up his sweet corn crop as an example.

“About 2/3 of the top part of our fields are pretty good quality and should get us good yields,” he said. “However, on the bottom end, we haven’t had enough water for all of the other plants. I guess you’d say we couldn’t get the water all the way to the end of the row.

“We’ve lost a lot of yield and in quality,” Roberts added. “In addition to the unplanted ground, there’s also a portion of the planted crops that are unmarketable.”

Crop farmers get paid when they harvest crops. Can you imagine knowing ahead of time that the one check you get for harvesting your crops won’t pay your bills? That’s what farmers face every year. These are the people that grow our food. It’s a rough way to earn a living.

He sums up the situation on his farm rather succinctly: “We’re in survival mode right now,” he said grimly. “With the unplanted acres and the loss of yield, we’re just trying to stay afloat. And I think that’s fair to say for a lot of farmers around us and across the state, as well as throughout the Western U.S.”

So how do farmers like him find a way to keep moving forward and get through this?

“I serve on the Utah Farm Bureau Board of Directors, and we met last week to discuss how we can help keep our farmers in business,” he said. “Every state has received a fair amount of COVID assistance, which is some help. We’re looking at the best ways to help the livestock farmers, the crop farmers, and get them the help they need.

“We’re looking into government programs to help them stay in business,” Roberts added. “I hate to say it, but sometimes a company or a farm may need a little help staying afloat when they face the challenges that we have for nearly two years.”

Roberts and his wife, Danna, have six children who each help on the farm, and Tyson’s parents, Dix and Ruth, also operate the farm with him.

January 5, 2021January 5, 2021

USDA assistance for quality loss now available

USDA assistance is now available for producers who were hit by natural disasters in 2018 and 2019. Lord knows there were enough of them to last most farmers a lifetime.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Farm Service Agency (FSA) today announced that signup for the Quality Loss Adjustment (QLA) Program will begin Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021. Funded by the Further Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2020, this new program provides assistance to producers who suffered eligible crop quality losses due to natural disasters occurring in 2018 and 2019. The deadline to apply for this USDA assistance is Friday, March 5, 2021.

“Farmers and livestock producers nationwide experienced crop quality losses due to natural disasters in 2018 and 2019,” said. Bill Northey, USDA Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation. “We have worked diligently over the past couple of years to roll out meaningful USDA assistance programs to help alleviate the substantial financial loss experienced by so many agricultural producers, and are pleased to offer quality loss assistance as added relief. Many of the eligible producers have already received compensation for quantity losses.”

Eligible Crops

Crops eligible for USDA assistance include those for which federal crop insurance or Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program(NAP) coverage is available, except for grazed crops and value loss crops, such as honey, maple sap, aquaculture, floriculture, mushrooms, ginseng root, ornamental nursery, Christmas trees, and turfgrass sod.

Additionally, crops that were sold or fed to livestock or that are in storage may be eligible; however, crops that were destroyed before harvest are not eligible. Crop quality losses occurring after harvest, due to deterioration in storage, or that could have been mitigated, are also not eligible.

Assistance is based on a producer’s harvested affected production of an eligible crop, which must have had at least a 5% quality loss reflected through a quality discount; or for forage crops, a nutrient loss, such as total digestible nutrients.

Qualifying Disaster Events

Losses must have been a result of a qualifying disaster event (hurricane, excessive moisture, flood, qualifying drought, tornado, typhoon, volcanic activity, snowstorm, or wildfire) or related condition that occurred in calendar years 2018 and/or 2019.

Assistance is available for eligible producers in counties that received a qualifying Presidential Emergency Disaster Declaration or Secretarial Disaster Designation because of one or more of the qualifying disaster events or related conditions.

Lists of counties with Presidential Emergency Disaster Declarations and Secretarial Disaster Designations for all qualifying disaster events for 2018 and 2019 are available here. For drought, producers are eligible for QLA if the loss occurred in an area within a county rated by the U.S. Drought Monitor as having a D3 (extreme drought) or higher intensity level during 2018 or 2019.

Producers in counties that did not receive a qualifying declaration or designation may still apply but must also provide supporting documentation to establish that the crop was directly affected by a qualifying disaster event.

To determine QLA eligibility and payments, FSA considers the total quality loss caused by all qualifying natural disasters in cases where a crop was impacted by multiple events.

Applying for QLA

When applying, producers are asked to provide verifiable documentation to support claims of quality loss or nutrient loss in the case of forage crops. For crops that have been sold, grading must have been completed within 30 days of harvest, and for forage crops, a laboratory analysis must have been completed within 30 days of harvest.

Some acceptable forms of documentation include sales receipts from buyers, settlement sheets, truck or warehouse scale tickets, written sales contracts, similar records that represent actual and specific quality loss information, and forage tests for nutritional values.

Payments Calculations and Limitations

QLA payments are based on formulas for the type of crop (forage or non-forage) and loss documentation submitted. Based on this documentation FSA is calculating payments based on the producer’s own individual loss or based on the county average loss. More information on payments can be found on farmers.gov/quality-loss.

FSA will issue payments once the application period ends. If the total amount of calculated QLA payments exceeds available program funding, payments will be prorated.

For each crop year, 2018, 2019 and 2020, the maximum amount that a person or legal entity may receive, directly or indirectly, is $125,000. Payments made to a joint operation (including a general partnership or joint venture) will not exceed $125,000, multiplied by the number of persons and legal entities that comprise the ownership of the joint operation. A person or legal entity is ineligible for QLA payment if the person’s or legal entity’s average Adjusted Gross Income exceeds $900,000, unless at least 75% is derived from farming, ranching or forestry-related activities.

Future Insurance Coverage Requirements

All producers receiving QLA Program payments are required to purchase crop insurance or NAP coverage for the next two available crop years at the 60% coverage level or higher. If eligible, QLA participants may meet the insurance purchase requirement by purchasing Whole-Farm Revenue Protection coverage offered through USDA’s Risk Management Agency.

More Information

For more information, visit farmers.gov/quality-loss, or contact your local USDA Service Center. Producers can also obtain one-on-one support with applications by calling 877-508-8364.

All USDA Service Centers are open for business, including those that restrict in-person visits or require appointments. All Service Center visitors wishing to conduct business with FSA, Natural Resources Conservation Service, or any other Service Center agency should call ahead and schedule an appointment. Service Centers that are open for appointments will pre-screen visitors based on health concerns or recent travel, and visitors must adhere to social distancing guidelines. Visitors are also required to wear a face covering during their appointment. Our program delivery staff will continue to work with our producers by phone, email and using online tools. More information can be found at farmers.gov/coronavirus.

July 27, 2020July 27, 2020

Mystery Seeds Entering the U.S. from China

“Mystery Seeds.” The first thing that came to mind was a possible title for a “Scooby-Doo” episode. Just when you thought 2020 couldn’t get any stranger, people in at least 10 states have received packages with a Chinese postmark and a label that says some kind of jewelry is inside. However, it’s a different story after they open the box.

What these Americans are receiving is an unsolicited package of seeds. States like Minnesota, Louisiana, Utah, Virginia, Kentucky, Washington state, and others are reporting similar situations. One thing to get out of the way right away is that under no circumstances should anyone plant those seeds.

“We’re uncertain what those seeds may be and why people are receiving packages they didn’t send for,” says Denise Thiede, Seed Unit Supervisor with the Minnesota Department of Agriculture. “Until we know more, we’re encouraging people to contact us because of the risk those seeds may pose to Minnesota agriculture and our natural landscapes.”

Washington state just recorded its first known case of an unsolicited seed shipment late last week. I talked with Karla Salp, the Public Engagement Specialist with the Washington State Department of Agriculture. Not one but two Washington residents picked up seeds in the mail they didn’t order from China.

“One of those residents sent us a picture of the seeds so we could see what they were talking about,” Salp says. “We thought they looked a lot like some kind of citrus seeds, while the labels said the packages contained some sort of jewelry.

More “Mystery Seeds” from China. (Photo from the Minnesota Department of Agriculture)

“Initially, we had been telling folks who received the seeds to report it to USDA,” she said. “They handle reports of agricultural smuggling. “The social media post advising people to contact USDA has been seen by over 30 million people. We’re sure that USDA knows all about the problem now.”

So, the Washington Ag Department is asking their residents to put the seeds in a Ziploc bag and put them in their regular trash. Do not putt them in something like a compost pile. “Most of the packages have another package within them,” Salp says. “The seeds are often in a second package inside the shipping container. Residents need to leave the seeds inside the sealed container. Do not open them up, and definitely do not plant them.”

Each state will have its own directions for residents who receive the seeds through the mail. The Minnesota Ag Department says don’t throw away the package or its contents and do not plant the seeds,. After that, contact the Arrest the Pest line at 888-545-6684. They’ll need your name, contact info, and the date you received the package.

Minnesota officials will then coordinate shipping the package and its contents to the MDA Seed Program. The MDA is currently working with the USDA’s Smuggling Interdiction and Trade Compliance Program on identifying and destroying the seeds.

Salp says putting unknown seeds in U.S. soil could be problematic.

“It could be a combination of any of those three reasons I just listed,” she added. “It could be an invasive species that also carries a specific plant disease. These are some of the serious reasons that things like this need to go through the proper channels at the border if they’re a plant-based product.”

The USDA is working with federal and state agencies to investigate these unsolicited packages.

“We are also working with various online retailers to address some of these issues as well,” Salp said.

June 8, 2020June 8, 2020

Dicamba products update for Minnesota farmers

Dicamba products; So can Minnesota farmers use it or not? That Ninth Circuit Court Ruling last week left a lot of producers in limbo. Here’s the latest update from the Minnesota Department of Agriculture.

Upon further review of state law and while awaiting guidance from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on the ruling of the 9^th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals regarding dicamba products, the Minnesota Department of Agriculture will continue operating under existing pesticide program authorities. According to Minnesota law, an unregistered pesticide previously registered in the state may be used following the cancellation of the registration of the pesticide.

At this time Minnesota farmers can use XtendiMax with VaporGrip Technology (EPA Reg. No. 524-617), Engenia Herbicide (EPA Reg. No. 7969-345), and DuPont FeXapan with VaporGrip Technology (EPA Reg. No. 352-913) while following all federal and Minnesota label requirements. (Tavium Plus VaporGrip Technology (EPA Reg. No. 100-1623) was not part of the two-year federal registration and can still be used according to the label). The Department does not anticipate taking enforcement action against those who continue to appropriately use these products. This may change at any time pending additional guidance from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

“The Circuit Court of Appeals decision to revoke the use of these products was, unfortunately, very untimely for our farmers as many had already purchased the herbicide for this growing season,” said Minnesota Agriculture Commissioner Thom Petersen. “Timing is critical for farmers to apply the products and our further interpretation of Minnesota law allows us to use these products.”

dicamba products — The Minnesota Department of Agriculture is keeping things as they were with regards to farmers using Dicamba products. They’re awaiting further guidance from the EPA before
making a final decision. As of right now, it’s business as usual. (Photo from thecounter.org)

As a reminder, all dicamba pesticide applicators in Minnesota must follow use instructions on the product label including the timing restrictions below. Dicamba products cannot be applied to dicamba-tolerant (DT) soybeans in Minnesota if any of the following conditions has occurred. Whichever cutoff time occurs first will determine whether a person can apply a given product to DT soybeans until June 20, 2020.

Forty-five (45) days after planting. The federal labels for XtendiMax, Engenia, FeXapan, and Tavium prohibit application more than 45 days after planting.
Once the R1 growth stage begins (beginning bloom). The federal labels for XtendiMax, Engenia, and FeXapan prohibit this. The R1 stage is when at least 1 flower appears on the plant on any node on the main stem.
After the V4 growth stage. The federal label for Tavium prohibits application after the V4 growth stage.
After June 20, 2020. The Minnesota Special Local Need (SLN) label, which must be in possession of the applicator at the time of application, prohibits this for all four dicamba products. The SLN labels are available on the MDA website at mda.state.mn.us/24c

In Minnesota, all four dicamba products are “Restricted Use Pesticides” for retail sale to, and for use only by, certified applicators who have complete dicamba or auxin-specific training.

For questions, e-mail Josh Stamper at Joshua.Stamper@state.mn.us.

May 7, 2020May 7, 2020

Frost in the Friday night forecast in farm country

Here is the audio podcast with Ryan Martin that you can download to your computer. You can also play it on your mobile device. Just his the play arrow on the left.

Frost in the forecast is rarely a good thing in farm country during any season outside of winter. In an ideal world, the only exception is a killing frost after corn states hit black layer. Of course, we don’t always live in an ideal world, do we? Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, is a long-time agricultural meteorologist who says the threat of some frost damage will begin this weekend.

“The days most in question are Friday night, May 8, into Saturday morning,” he said. “The axis of the coldest air will come across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, east-to-northeast Iowa, northern Illinois, most of Indiana, as well as all of Michigan and Ohio. This is the zone where we’ll see temperatures at 30 degrees or colder.”

He said the coldest air looks to hit Michigan and Ohio this weekend, where we could see some big impact on soft red winter wheat, especially in Ohio. The frost timing is not good as wheat has woken up out of winter dormancy and is moving forward through its growth stages.

“The wheat is at the jointing stage and anytime the crop gets further into its growth, that means the wheat is a little more susceptible to cold temperatures,” Martin said, “depending on how much the temps fall and how long they’re under a certain threshold.

“If wheat is just breaking dormancy and you get a cold snap, you have to be under 28 degrees anywhere between three and five hours,” he added. “When we get into the jointing stage and further along, wheat can barely handle 30 degrees for an hour or two. That’s where the issue lies on wheat this weekend.”

Frost — Ryan Martin, Hoosier Ag Today meteorologist, says the fast pace of planting in 2020 is
going to slow down for a few days due to cooler than normal temps in farm country. (Photo
YouTube.com)

Corn and soybeans will hopefully be a different story. Based on the crop planting progress and emergence reports, Martin, Chief Meteorologist for the Hoosier Ag Today Radio Network, is much more optimistic about those crops being able to survive the freezing temps.

“Illinois leads the way with nine percent of its corn crop emerged,” he said. “In most areas, the growing point of the crop is still going to be below ground, so I don’t think it will mean anything for corn and soybeans on mortality. What it does do is slow down that incredibly fast-paced planting season we’ve seen in many states.”

A couple of other examples include Iowa, which was on a record planting pace during the last planting update, while Minnesota just to the north is no slouch either on planting progress. The Purdue University meteorology graduate says all of the “good stuff” that comes with early-planted corn gets slowed down and “stunted” because of the frost/freeze over the weekend and the extended run of below-normal temps that won’t end till the middle of next week.

“Cold air moved out of Canada and focused on the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and the northeastern United States,” Martin said. “However, there’s an interesting twist ahead in the forecast for the next seven-to-ten days. We’ll start to see temperatures in the below-normal areas start to moderate on May 13 through 15.

“Things will take a drastic switch after that,” he added. “We’ll see above-normal temps in the Eastern Corn Belt, while the Plains may drop down below normal through the last part of May. There’s a lot of air currents, different movements here, different patterns trying to emerge, and it all has to do with where polar air is shifting to this time of year.”

It’s been a bit of an unusual spring so far for many reasons, but I’m just talking about the weather. What we’ve seen so far in terms of temps and precipitation has been very different from recent years. There’s no question, a lot of states have seen temperatures consistently lower than what they normally expect.

“Big swings in spring temps aren’t unusual,” says Martin. “We’ve certainly seen them before. I think the reason it’s coming home to roost a little bit more and has people scratching their heads is the degree of change from the last several years.

“We’ve had pretty dog-gone decent springs over the past handful of years,” he recalled. “We’ve come out of winter early and been able to hit the ground running based on the temps. Last year, precipitation was a big problem, but the temperatures were still decent. This year is the first out of the past five or so that’s really showed us the kind of variability we can see in the spring.”

Ryan will do custom forecasts for your radio and TV stations. Check out his work at www.weatherstud.com.

April 27, 2020April 27, 2020

Farmer optimism hits an all-time low

Farmer optimism is in the dumper and there is no nice way to say it. COVID-19 and its economic impact, low commodity prices, trade wars, and weather have made life even more challenging. DTN found out that farmer optimism is at a record low. They’ve been doing a tri-annual survey of farmers for several years and this spring’s Agricultural Confidence Index hit an all-time low mark.

The baseline for their survey is 100. Everything below 100 is pessimistic, and any number above 100 is considered optimistic.

“We do our survey in the spring, just before planting,” said DTN Editor-In-Chief Greg Horstmeier. “We also do one at harvest, and then our final survey is in December, which is basically farm tax time. The drop in the index from the last time we did this in December is not a surprise, given everything that’s going on.

“It was a record-sized drop down to an index reading of 67,” he added. “That’s a 97-point drop, which is even more remarkable because we’re hearing that agriculture is moving on as normal. Everyone is either getting ready to or heading out into the field, so that big of a damper on the survey results is surprising.”

Horstmeier said spring is typically the most optimistic time of the year for farmers. New crops are going into the ground, which automatically means a fresh start, especially if the year before was as tough as 2019. Low optimism in the spring isn’t unusual. What’s unusual about this survey is how pessimistic farmers are about the future outlook.

The future outlook is typically very optimistic during the spring survey. “This year, that index reading was 73, which means it dove hard into negative territory,” Horstmeier said. “That was the big takeaway for me. Not only does the current situation have farmers in a pessimistic state of mind, but they don’t have a lot of promise for the foreseeable future.”

Another thing that really stood out was just how prevalent the pessimism is in different sectors of agriculture. It didn’t matter what farmers grew or how big their operations were, either. Even in down years, there’s typically difference worth noting.

“We typically see at least some differences between, for example, livestock and crop producers,” Horstmeier said. “We’ve also seen regional differences, such as the Midwest may be less optimistic than farmers in the Southeast. The pessimism was across the board, regardless of location, income level, the crops they grew, and what kind of enterprises they had.”

Speaking of Midwest farmers, in this year’s survey they showed the most pessimism currently, yet they also had the most optimism for the future. Southeastern farmers were more optimistic about their current conditions (89) but felt less optimism for their future (56).

DTN also conducts a similar survey of agribusinesses. The index level came in at a just-above-neutral 104. Agribusinesses rated their current conditions at a slightly pessimistic 85. However, they were above neutral when looking at the future, coming in at 118.

Here’s the link to the DTN survey article.