Drought | Field 2 Field

February 20, 2023February 20, 2023

Shipping Commodities is Near-Normal, For Now

Shipping commodities up and down America’s inland waterway system got pretty hard to do in 2022, especially along the Mississippi River. Extended drought cut water levels to almost impassable levels and resulted in shipping grinding to a halt in the river. The good news is those levels are finally beginning to rebound.

Mike Steenhoek is the executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, a group that keeps a sharp eye on shipping and the waterways year-round. They’re happy to see those river levels starting to rise because ships are once again carrying commodities to southern ports in the U.S.

“Meaningful precipitation has occurred over the past several months,” he said from Ankeny, Iowa. “It’s made a significant impact throughout the entire inland waterway system.”

Steenhoek offered up Memphis, Tennessee, as an example, calling it one of the “ground-zero” locations for the low-water conditions last fall. That location is currently 10-10.5 feet of water depth in relation to the gauge.

“Last year at this time, we were at 19 feet,” he recalled. “So, we’re below last year. To give that some perspective, we were just about at a negative 11 feet in late October. We’re easily more than 20 feet better than we were in October, which is a significant increase making shipping easier.”

St. Louis, Missouri, was another example of “ground zero” in the low water level picture. That location is just a bit higher than at the same time in 2022, so the area has seen a nice rebound from the low levels. He says the moral of the story is the waterways have returned to a degree of “normalcy.” But there is a catch.

“It won’t take a lot of sustained dry conditions to tip us right back into lower conditions,” Steenhoek said. “It could critically impact some of those areas like St. Louis to Cairo, Illinois.”

Shipping commodities is getting back to near-normal levels, for now. The waterways need continued rainfall in case dry weather returns. (Photo by AgFax)

Cairo (pronounced KAY-row) is a significant point in the waterway system. That’s where the Ohio River meets the Mississippi and provides a big influx of water into the system so that St. Louis to Cairo area can be very susceptible to low water conditions.

How dry did some of those areas get? The levels sank so low that ships were actually running aground and getting stuck in the Mississippi River. When that happens, one of two things usually occurs.

“Those ships sometimes had to get dug out,” he recalled. “Sometimes, they had to sit there until water levels rose to the point they could move again.

We also had sediment buildup, or ‘shoaling,’ in multiple locations,” Steenhoek said. “That resulted in shipping having to stop or significantly slow down. That meant there was a lot of dredging activity occurring last year and continuing into 2023.”

The timing for ships getting stuck last fall was awful, as that’s a time when a high percentage of U.S. exports occurs between September and February. “That’s when the U.S. soybean spigot is turned on and we supply a lot of soybeans to the world market,” he said. “Bad time for one of the main ways we move product to our ports to go down.”

Steenhoek monitors shipping in the waterways closely and says there is good movement up and down the waterways right now. U.S. export volumes are comparable to even a little higher than where they were last year.

“That’s really good news,” he said. “The reports I’m getting, particularly from the export facilities down in the New Orleans area, say they are back to a healthy degree of normalcy.

“As I mentioned, we’d love to see steady precipitation continue,” Steenhoek added. “We don’t have a lot of excess water in the tank to rely on if things go that dry again.”

September 22, 2022September 22, 2022

Commodities, Sports, and Prognostication

Commodities and sports typically don’t go together most years. However, this fall, the two topics have come together in an interesting way.

Being a long-time sports broadcaster, I’ve noticed that when the major sports seasons wrap up, certain sports media love to immediately do what they call a “way-too-early” look to the next season. Evidently, it’s not just a sports thing.

I know harvest is just ramping up in many areas as I write this, but Farm Futures took what some might think is a “way-too-early” survey of planting intentions for 2023, and I couldn’t pass it up. It looks like corn will be king once again next spring among all commodities.

Commodities — Corn looks to be king when it comes to 2023 spring planting (photo from agriculture.com)

Jacqueline Holland is the grain market analyst for Farm Futures, and she wrote an article about the survey. She says the way-too-soon survey results are favoring corn for spring planting despite some challenges that come with the commodity.

“Even with higher fertilizer prices, farmers are still prepared to go all-in on corn,” she said. “Our survey found that farmers expect to plant 94.3 million acres of corn, a five percent increase from USDA’s current acreage estimates.”

If that prediction is realized, it would be the most corn planted in the U.S. since 95.4 million acres went into the ground in 2013. While soybean acres will be behind corn next year, U.S. growers are still sowing a lot of beans during spring planting in 2023.

“We expect farmers to plant 87.3 million acres of beans,” Holland said. “That’s almost a one percent decrease from this year’s acreage.” Cotton is one of the reasons that soybean acreage is going to drop a little. In the Mississippi Delta, a lot of acres in that region are going to provide “stiff competition” for soybeans during spring planting.

They also expect wheat acres to rise in 2023 thanks to more winter wheat acres in the Eastern Corn Belt. Farm Futures expects growers to plant 36.6 million acres of winter wheat. With more winter wheat acres going in the ground, spring wheat acres will back up from this year, with the 2023 estimate at 12.3 million acres.

“That means a grand total of 48.9 million acres of wheat will be planted in 2023,” she said.

Holland admits she was a little surprised at the survey results. She says there was a lot of price responsiveness to the rapidly-rising fertilizer prices heading into spring planting this year.

“When farmers were making their planting decisions in December last year, soybean prices were rallying strongly,” Holland recalled. “But with all of the issues we’ve seen with the flow of corn in the Black Sea this year, as well as the U.S. corn crop struggling with drought, corn has some bullish prospects for next year.”

She says if we do see a larger corn acreage next year, that might lead to some expansion back in the cattle market. In turn, that would likely revive some corn acreage in the Plains. Remember, about three million acres of corn went into prevent plant in the spring of this year.

“A lot of those acres were in the Dakotas and Minnesota,” she said. “Barring another bad weather event next year, I expect those acres to go back into corn in 2023.”

Farm Futures also has other questions in their survey beyond commodities and planting intentions. Those questions include where farmers are headed with input costs next year. Based on the survey responses, Holland says profit margins are going to shrink next year. The question is, how much?

“As of right now, it doesn’t look like growers are going to skimp on any fertilizer applications,” Holland said. “Most responses show farmers are ready to lock in their fertilizers at the lowest prices they can get. That will hopefully keep at least some liquidity in these crop budgets.

“We’ll see how these things ultimately shake out for planting and commodities,” she added. “There’s a long time between now and next spring.”

August 10, 2022August 11, 2022

Rain Finally Shows In Farm Country Last Weekend

Rain. Finally. Last weekend saw at least some rain in parts of farm country. Had a chance to talk with John Baranick (rhymes with mechanic), ag meteorologist for DTN, who lives just down 169 from me in Jordan, Minnesota. He says while the rain benefitted the parts of rural America stuck in a drought, other areas didn’t need a lot of rainfall.

“It wasn’t just here in southern Minnesota. We also saw that it was even heavier south of the border in Iowa, with a lot more four-to-six inch amounts there. Very helpful for some areas, but not a lot of those areas needed it. It also extended down through southern Wisconsin and into Northern Illinois. A lot of those crops, again, didn’t really need it, but it’s definitely helpful wherever it hit. And that front is starting to come through the eastern half of the Corn Belt. Again, a lot of these areas are doing much better than we are out here in the West, but Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio are all seeing bouts of rain this week. They’ve had some flooding in some of these areas, but the rainfall that’s gone through is mostly favorable. It’s just those Western states that just haven’t.”

The Dakotas saw mixed results from the weekend rain.

“South Dakota got some pretty good rainfall. The eastern half of it did, but the western half didn’t, really. North Dakota has kind of been missing out on a bunch of rain lately, although their soil moisture, for the most part, and the crop conditions are still pretty good.”

The Plains States are still struggling with drought…tape

“It’s the states of Nebraska, Kansas, kind of northern Missouri that have missed out on a lot of the rainfall even with these fronts coming through, and they’ve had a lot hotter. Temperatures have been up near or eclipsing 100 degrees very consistently all summer long, so the heat has been putting on a whole lot of stress for those areas.”

There may finally be some cooler air on the way into the Plains next week and may bring at least a little rain with that front…tape

“We’re seeing late next week, maybe mid-to-late next week, a push a cooler air move through and that’s gonna come with a bit of showers too, so it’s not a whole lot of rainfall and probably on the order for most people have a half inch or less, But the temperatures are going to cool back down. Instead of seeing highs in the 90s and up near 100. It’s more like the 70s and 80s for several days, so it’s actually gonna be below-normal temperatures for a bit. That kind of occurs late next week into the following week, so it’ll be a nice relieving break for them.

Unfortunately, many parts of rural America are still stuck in a drought. We’ll talk about that more later this week.

Again, that’s DTN ag meteorologist John Baranick

April 4, 2022April 4, 2022

Soybean Harvest Disappoints South American Farmers

The South American soybean harvest is on the mind of many in the commodity markets this time of year. One expert says the Brazilian soybean harvest was about three-quarters complete, and, as of last week, the results may be a dramatic step down from last year. That could mean extra export opportunities for American soybeans in the months ahead.

Michael Cordonnier is an agronomist with Corn and Soybean Advisors, Incorporated, in Hinsdale, Illinois. The Brazil soybean harvest is 75-80 percent complete, and the Safriña, or second-corn crop, is all but completed at 99 percent after getting planted in the optimal window of time.

“I think the weather has been pretty good to allow the second-corn crop to get in the ground,” Cordonnier said while on the phone from his office in Illinois. “It’s off to a good start, but there’s still a long way to go. However, the market seems pretty confident that we’ll see a good-sized Safriña corn crop.”

In fact, he says there’s so much optimism around the potential of the corn crop that it’s pressuring Brazil’s domestic corn prices. There’s even more pressure on their domestic corn prices because the Brazilian real is strengthening when compared to the dollar. He said it’s trading at about 4.7 to the dollar, the strongest it’s been in a year.

“The South American market, at least in Brazil, is very confident that we could see a corn crop that’s 25 million tons larger than last year,” he said. “There is some concern about potential frost late in the season before the crop matures.

“La Niña is still out there,” Cordonnier added, “and it’s going to stay a couple of more months. That generally results in earlier-than-normal frost. Any frost, at all, before the end of June is important for the Safriña crop in Brazil.”

The pace is a lot slower in Argentina, where the South American crop expert says the corn is about ten percent harvested while the soybean crop is less than five percent in the bin. Early yields continue to be disappointing, early on, so he said it remains to be seen what will happen in Argentina.

South American growing areas struggled with a drought that, in some cases, stretched back to 2021 and earlier. He said some of those same areas are starting to see some rainfall. However, many areas are still looking for a consistent drink of water to recharge their soils.

The Brazilian soybean harvest may be disappointing, but the second corn crop is off to a good start, even though there’s a long way to maturity. (Photo from wikipedia)

“There’s still some dryness in east-central Brazil,” he said, “including the corn-producing states of Goias and Minas Gerais. It remains to be seen if the dryness gets resolved, but I’m not optimistic as South America is getting closer to what’s typically a dry season.

“The last summer rains usually occur in early May, so there’s a month or two left in the summer rainy season,” he added. “But it’s getting better.”

Cordonnier predicts a Brazil soybean harvest of 123 million tons, within a narrow range of an upside of 124 and a downside of 120. However, he says farmers are “pretty close” to being done with results in the low 120s. He predicts an Argentine soybean harvest of 39 million tons. “I’m a little bit on the low side,” he said. “But I expect the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to lower their soybean number as well.

“I expect Brazil’s farmers to produce 112 million tons of corn,” Cordonnier said. “We’ll see what the weather does to and for the Safriña corn crop. In Argentina, I stayed at 49 million tons for their corn harvest, and the Grain Exchange agrees with me as they lowered their prediction to 49 million. I thought they should have been at that number a long time ago.”

His numbers continue to get narrower for both corn and soybeans in each country. The overall South American soybean crop is going to be down by a big number from last year.

“I have the South American soybean harvest at 171.6 million tons compared to 198 million last year,” Cordonnier said. “That’s down about 26 million tons from last year, which is a significant drop. The news is better for the South American corn crop, which I have at 167 million tons, compared to last year’s harvest of 143 million.

“That’s up a good amount from last year,” he added. “That jump happened because the Safriña corn crop was such a disaster in 2021. Corn will be better than last year, and soybeans will be worse than last year: It’s the reverse of what we had last year in South America.”

Does that mean some soybean export opportunities for the U.S. this year? It’s likely, but Cordonnier says the war in Ukraine and its impact on global commodity markets makes it hard to know for sure what’s ahead for the remainder of 2022.

August 18, 2021August 18, 2021

Canadian agriculture hit hard by drought

Canadian agriculture has something big in common with U.S. producers this year.

In fact, Canada and the U.S. have more in common than just a border. The two countries are also sharing a lot of hot, dry weather. Shaun Haney of RealAg is an agricultural journalist and broadcaster in Canada who says the longtime trading partners are in the same boat.

Shaun Haney of RealAg is an agricultural journalist and writer covering Canadian agriculture, which has been hit hard by drought. (Photo from YouTube.com)

“Absolutely yes,” he said on the phone from his office. “The drought of 2021 in Northern Ontario and the Western Canadian Prairies has been compared to the drought in 1988. This summer has been extremely hot and dry.

“It’s obviously hurt the crop conditions,” Haney added. “In some ways, it’s even more urgently impacted the grasslands and pastures, which is forcing producer discussions on the future of the Canadian cow herd after this fall, depending on what the level of cow cull will be.”

The drought isn’t just confined to 2021. As with many dry areas in the States, the drought stretches back to last fall. Haney noted that many Canadians were saying that “you don’t lose the crop in March.” However, they could have used moisture at that time, which they didn’t get.

“It was so dry that we’d used up a lot of our subsoil moisture last year,” he recalled. “We needed to replenish that moisture through the winter, and it didn’t happen. As we made our way into the growing season and the weeks passed, the rain just didn’t come.”

Severe drought is making things tough on Canadian agriculture. (Photo from globalnews.ca)

As the rain continued to hold off, the area listed on the Drought Monitor began to expand. Early in the year, the drought ran in a tight band along the U.S.-Canada border, especially in the Southern Prairies of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. At the same time, that drought also affected North Dakota and Montana early on in the U.S.

“As the weeks went by, the drought-impacted area continued to make its way further and further north,” Haney recalled. “It created a situation where the yields became more questionable on an increasing number of acres. The frustrating thing is some of those same fields started 2021 in great condition.”

The crops didn’t get the rain they needed for any consistent grain fill. Haney is located in Lethbridge, Alberta, and said a lot of the dryland in Canadian agriculture never had a chance. He described the 2021 Canadian growing season in one word: heartbreaking.

Crops hit by this year’s drought run the entire spectrum in Canada. Some crops handle adversity better than others, including chickpeas and lentils. However, Canadian farmers are especially concerned about the wheat and canola crops.

“I would say it’s even more so with canola,” Haney said. “From what I’ve heard, there are a lot of people harvesting some pretty light barley. But canola is the one where people are concerned they won’t have the yield. Canola is a fairly small seed, but it shouldn’t look like pepper.”

Canadian farmers do grow some soybean in Manitoba, where farmers may harvest bushels worth as little as $15. Producers also grow a little grain corn in Manitoba, as well as some in southern Alberta, that’s fed to livestock. Almost all of that corn is irrigated.

“There are some irrigated sugar beets in Alberta that are looking good as well,” he adds. “However, the list of struggling dryland crops is a long one.”

Haney says the one possible saving grace is good commodity prices. If prices were low during a drought like this, that would be the mother of all discouraging situations. He notes that if canola is around 20 dollars and you have ten bushels in the field, that’s 200 dollars an acre.

“It’s not a moneymaker on dry land, but it’s a lot better than a market with nine dollars,” he added. “This boils down to Mother Nature not cooperating with us, and it’s one of the variables that are out of our control.

“I can’t even imagine what it would have been like going through a drought like this in the 1930s and ‘40s when we weren’t in a minimum-till situation,” Haney said. “Thankfully, most of our fields are minimum or zero-tillage, which helps to conserve as much moisture as possible. It’s a good reminder of why we change our practices in Canadian agriculture out here on the prairies.”

Find out more about Shaun Haney and everything going on in Canadian agriculture at https://www.realagriculture.com.

August 11, 2021August 11, 2021

Drought has Utah farmer in “survival mode”

Drought to an average person likely means “it’s dry.” And that’s fair. However, what you may not realize is drought, to a farmer, might mean “we’re struggling to stay in business because of something we literally have no control over.” It’s understandably a situation that non-farm folks have a hard time relating to.

The National Association of Farm Broadcasting’s News Service and the American Farm Bureau Federation undertook a project this month to put a human face on the challenges of drought, especially in the Western United States. That area of the country has been clobbered by a long and intense spell of dry weather.

Tyson Roberts is a farmer from Layton, Utah, who’s seen the challenge firsthand because he’s living it right now. I jumped on the phone with him on Tuesday of this week for an interview about what it’s like to face a drought of this magnitude. While drought is a big topic of conversation in 2021, he said the dry spell stretches back to 2021.

“We got started with this last year,” he recalled while on the phone from his Utah farm. “A lot of people may not realize that.”

It wasn’t quite as bad last year as it is in 2021. The water available for Roberts’ crops was below normal levels in 2020, but they still grew “pretty much” all of the crops that they would in a normal year. This year has been markedly different.

“We are a vegetable operation here,” he said, “and we grow fresh market vegetables for farmer’s markets.

“When you think about a tradition row crop farm, the producer plants in the spring and harvests in the fall,” Roberts says. “We work a little differently: we’ll start planting different vegetables in the spring and continue through most of the summer and into August.”

Their typical planting schedule came to a sudden stop. Roberts, the sixth generation of the Roberts family to work the farm in Davis County, Utah, got to the middle of June and figured out they wouldn’t have enough water to sustain the crops they have growing and grow the additional crops they’d be planting through the month of July.

“We ended up putting all of our planters away around the first of July,” he recalled. “About 20 percent of our property remained unplanted. We fallowed it because there just isn’t enough water to grow the amount of produce we normally plant in a given year.”

Drought is making the lives of farmers miserable in 2021, especially in the Western United States. (Photo from foxnews.com)

As someone who doesn’t live on a farm, imagine having to give up 20 percent of your income due to circumstances you had no control over. I don’t know about you, but a 20 percent drop in income would likely throw me out of my house and into the street.

The drought hasn’t forced Roberts to destroy any crops, but it has forced him to leave some crops in the field because they’re not harvestable quality, which amounts to the same thing. He offered up his sweet corn crop as an example.

“About 2/3 of the top part of our fields are pretty good quality and should get us good yields,” he said. “However, on the bottom end, we haven’t had enough water for all of the other plants. I guess you’d say we couldn’t get the water all the way to the end of the row.

“We’ve lost a lot of yield and in quality,” Roberts added. “In addition to the unplanted ground, there’s also a portion of the planted crops that are unmarketable.”

Crop farmers get paid when they harvest crops. Can you imagine knowing ahead of time that the one check you get for harvesting your crops won’t pay your bills? That’s what farmers face every year. These are the people that grow our food. It’s a rough way to earn a living.

He sums up the situation on his farm rather succinctly: “We’re in survival mode right now,” he said grimly. “With the unplanted acres and the loss of yield, we’re just trying to stay afloat. And I think that’s fair to say for a lot of farmers around us and across the state, as well as throughout the Western U.S.”

So how do farmers like him find a way to keep moving forward and get through this?

“I serve on the Utah Farm Bureau Board of Directors, and we met last week to discuss how we can help keep our farmers in business,” he said. “Every state has received a fair amount of COVID assistance, which is some help. We’re looking at the best ways to help the livestock farmers, the crop farmers, and get them the help they need.

“We’re looking into government programs to help them stay in business,” Roberts added. “I hate to say it, but sometimes a company or a farm may need a little help staying afloat when they face the challenges that we have for nearly two years.”

Roberts and his wife, Danna, have six children who each help on the farm, and Tyson’s parents, Dix and Ruth, also operate the farm with him.