frost | Field 2 Field

April 4, 2022April 4, 2022

Soybean Harvest Disappoints South American Farmers

The South American soybean harvest is on the mind of many in the commodity markets this time of year. One expert says the Brazilian soybean harvest was about three-quarters complete, and, as of last week, the results may be a dramatic step down from last year. That could mean extra export opportunities for American soybeans in the months ahead.

Michael Cordonnier is an agronomist with Corn and Soybean Advisors, Incorporated, in Hinsdale, Illinois. The Brazil soybean harvest is 75-80 percent complete, and the Safriña, or second-corn crop, is all but completed at 99 percent after getting planted in the optimal window of time.

“I think the weather has been pretty good to allow the second-corn crop to get in the ground,” Cordonnier said while on the phone from his office in Illinois. “It’s off to a good start, but there’s still a long way to go. However, the market seems pretty confident that we’ll see a good-sized Safriña corn crop.”

In fact, he says there’s so much optimism around the potential of the corn crop that it’s pressuring Brazil’s domestic corn prices. There’s even more pressure on their domestic corn prices because the Brazilian real is strengthening when compared to the dollar. He said it’s trading at about 4.7 to the dollar, the strongest it’s been in a year.

“The South American market, at least in Brazil, is very confident that we could see a corn crop that’s 25 million tons larger than last year,” he said. “There is some concern about potential frost late in the season before the crop matures.

“La Niña is still out there,” Cordonnier added, “and it’s going to stay a couple of more months. That generally results in earlier-than-normal frost. Any frost, at all, before the end of June is important for the Safriña crop in Brazil.”

The pace is a lot slower in Argentina, where the South American crop expert says the corn is about ten percent harvested while the soybean crop is less than five percent in the bin. Early yields continue to be disappointing, early on, so he said it remains to be seen what will happen in Argentina.

South American growing areas struggled with a drought that, in some cases, stretched back to 2021 and earlier. He said some of those same areas are starting to see some rainfall. However, many areas are still looking for a consistent drink of water to recharge their soils.

The Brazilian soybean harvest may be disappointing, but the second corn crop is off to a good start, even though there’s a long way to maturity. (Photo from wikipedia)

“There’s still some dryness in east-central Brazil,” he said, “including the corn-producing states of Goias and Minas Gerais. It remains to be seen if the dryness gets resolved, but I’m not optimistic as South America is getting closer to what’s typically a dry season.

“The last summer rains usually occur in early May, so there’s a month or two left in the summer rainy season,” he added. “But it’s getting better.”

Cordonnier predicts a Brazil soybean harvest of 123 million tons, within a narrow range of an upside of 124 and a downside of 120. However, he says farmers are “pretty close” to being done with results in the low 120s. He predicts an Argentine soybean harvest of 39 million tons. “I’m a little bit on the low side,” he said. “But I expect the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to lower their soybean number as well.

“I expect Brazil’s farmers to produce 112 million tons of corn,” Cordonnier said. “We’ll see what the weather does to and for the Safriña corn crop. In Argentina, I stayed at 49 million tons for their corn harvest, and the Grain Exchange agrees with me as they lowered their prediction to 49 million. I thought they should have been at that number a long time ago.”

His numbers continue to get narrower for both corn and soybeans in each country. The overall South American soybean crop is going to be down by a big number from last year.

“I have the South American soybean harvest at 171.6 million tons compared to 198 million last year,” Cordonnier said. “That’s down about 26 million tons from last year, which is a significant drop. The news is better for the South American corn crop, which I have at 167 million tons, compared to last year’s harvest of 143 million.

“That’s up a good amount from last year,” he added. “That jump happened because the Safriña corn crop was such a disaster in 2021. Corn will be better than last year, and soybeans will be worse than last year: It’s the reverse of what we had last year in South America.”

Does that mean some soybean export opportunities for the U.S. this year? It’s likely, but Cordonnier says the war in Ukraine and its impact on global commodity markets makes it hard to know for sure what’s ahead for the remainder of 2022.

March 13, 2021March 13, 2021

Gardening and getting ready in 2021

Gardening is something you might be getting excited about after a recent spurt of warm weather in March. If looking through seed catalogs and running your hands through the black dirt gets your heart pumping, you’ve been bitten by the gardening bug. However, I talked to a gardening expert who says don’t jump the gun on planting your garden because it could lead to problems.

Nancy Kreith is an Extension Educator specializing in horticulture at the University of Illinois. She understands the excitement to get that garden growing but wants you to check your calendar first, specifically relating to the weather forecast and the final expected frost date. Most gardeners in the north are likely a couple of weeks away from working in the dirt.

“We could have as much as three weeks to go yet, depending on where you’re at,” Kreith said in a phone interview from her office in Matteson, Illinois. “You’ll want to find your local frost-free date, either through the National Weather Service or your local weather forecaster. That’s the last day they’re predicting frost.

“For example, the local frost-free date here in the Chicago area is on Mother’s Day, May 15,” she added. “For our cool-season crop varieties such as lettuce and root crops, you can plant those anywhere from four-to-six weeks before the frost-free date. We might be starting to plant in my area during the first week of April.”

The crops built to handle the cold weather include broccoli, brussels sprouts, cabbage, kale, kohlrabi, leek, onions, peas, rutabagas, spinach, and turnips. Those are the hardiest crops you can plant in a garden, so as soon as a gardener can get out and work the soil, they can go in the ground.

What makes these hardy plants so tough is good genetics. She’s seen ornamental kale planted in gardens during the fall for decoration, and the kale held up with snow sitting on top of it. The plant won’t be actively growing in that case, but rather it tolerates the cold and will sit in the garden until the weather perks up and the kale grows again.

What about the garden crops that don’t like frost?

“The best advice I can give you when planting the less-hardy crops in your garden is to give yourself a little wiggle room,” Kreith says. “I mentioned that the frost-free date in my area is May 15, but you never really know with the weather, so a little extra time doesn’t hurt.”

Kreith says she tries to wait an extra week past that last frost date when planting the warmer weather garden crops like tomatoes, peppers, and cucumbers. Those kinds of garden crops are very tender and won’t tolerate any frost. Plus, waiting a week or two after that date will still leave you enough time in the growing season to get a good crop from your garden.

In between the hardy and the tender crops is what she calls the “half-hardy” garden crops. That includes a lot of root crops like beets, carrots, potatoes, cauliflower, Chinese cabbage, lettuce, mustard greens, parsnip, Swiss Chard, and radishes.

“Those plants can go in the ground two or three weeks before that frost-free date,” she says.

Soil temperature is one of the most important factors in deciding when to plant your garden. (Photo from gardeningknowhow.com)

Gardening crops are like traditional commodities because you need to consider soil temperatures in deciding to plant your produce. “For example, the half-hardy vegetables will want soil temperatures above 40 degrees Fahrenheit,” she says. “Get an inexpensive soil thermometer, stick it in the ground, and document the soil temps for around five days in a row.

“That will give you an idea of how the seeds will germinate,” Kreith added.

While it’s still too early to plant, it’s more than all right to get out and do some work on the garden soil. General cleanup of the garden area after winter is a good place to begin.

“Go ahead and remove any debris from your vegetable garden,” Kreith said. “If you’re starting new, you want to kill off any existing vegetation where the garden is going to go. If grass and weeds are growing, I use a method that doesn’t require any chemicals to remove them.

“I use cardboard from shipping boxes,” she adds. “I remove the tape, but you don’t have to remove the label. Once I’m out gardening, I lay the cardboard down as a weed barrier, get it wet, and then put compost on top of the cardboard. I then allow it to decompose for one to two months.”

If she runs into areas of the garden that are hard to dig, Kreith cuts through the cardboard with a knife and then plants into that spot.

It’s important to remember that cardboard is rich in carbon, so she recommends adding some nitrogen to balance that out in the soil. While the compost will add a little to the soil, it’s important to put down some nitrogen fertilizer. “As the cardboard breaks down, it robs some nitrogen from the soil,” Kreith said.

“If all the weeds and plant debris are removed from your garden bed, go ahead and spread about two inches of compost on it,” Kreith says. “That’s something I recommend you do every year in your garden to get it ready to go.”

May 7, 2020May 7, 2020

Frost in the Friday night forecast in farm country

Here is the audio podcast with Ryan Martin that you can download to your computer. You can also play it on your mobile device. Just his the play arrow on the left.

Frost in the forecast is rarely a good thing in farm country during any season outside of winter. In an ideal world, the only exception is a killing frost after corn states hit black layer. Of course, we don’t always live in an ideal world, do we? Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, is a long-time agricultural meteorologist who says the threat of some frost damage will begin this weekend.

“The days most in question are Friday night, May 8, into Saturday morning,” he said. “The axis of the coldest air will come across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, east-to-northeast Iowa, northern Illinois, most of Indiana, as well as all of Michigan and Ohio. This is the zone where we’ll see temperatures at 30 degrees or colder.”

He said the coldest air looks to hit Michigan and Ohio this weekend, where we could see some big impact on soft red winter wheat, especially in Ohio. The frost timing is not good as wheat has woken up out of winter dormancy and is moving forward through its growth stages.

“The wheat is at the jointing stage and anytime the crop gets further into its growth, that means the wheat is a little more susceptible to cold temperatures,” Martin said, “depending on how much the temps fall and how long they’re under a certain threshold.

“If wheat is just breaking dormancy and you get a cold snap, you have to be under 28 degrees anywhere between three and five hours,” he added. “When we get into the jointing stage and further along, wheat can barely handle 30 degrees for an hour or two. That’s where the issue lies on wheat this weekend.”

Frost — Ryan Martin, Hoosier Ag Today meteorologist, says the fast pace of planting in 2020 is
going to slow down for a few days due to cooler than normal temps in farm country. (Photo
YouTube.com)

Corn and soybeans will hopefully be a different story. Based on the crop planting progress and emergence reports, Martin, Chief Meteorologist for the Hoosier Ag Today Radio Network, is much more optimistic about those crops being able to survive the freezing temps.

“Illinois leads the way with nine percent of its corn crop emerged,” he said. “In most areas, the growing point of the crop is still going to be below ground, so I don’t think it will mean anything for corn and soybeans on mortality. What it does do is slow down that incredibly fast-paced planting season we’ve seen in many states.”

A couple of other examples include Iowa, which was on a record planting pace during the last planting update, while Minnesota just to the north is no slouch either on planting progress. The Purdue University meteorology graduate says all of the “good stuff” that comes with early-planted corn gets slowed down and “stunted” because of the frost/freeze over the weekend and the extended run of below-normal temps that won’t end till the middle of next week.

“Cold air moved out of Canada and focused on the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and the northeastern United States,” Martin said. “However, there’s an interesting twist ahead in the forecast for the next seven-to-ten days. We’ll start to see temperatures in the below-normal areas start to moderate on May 13 through 15.

“Things will take a drastic switch after that,” he added. “We’ll see above-normal temps in the Eastern Corn Belt, while the Plains may drop down below normal through the last part of May. There’s a lot of air currents, different movements here, different patterns trying to emerge, and it all has to do with where polar air is shifting to this time of year.”

It’s been a bit of an unusual spring so far for many reasons, but I’m just talking about the weather. What we’ve seen so far in terms of temps and precipitation has been very different from recent years. There’s no question, a lot of states have seen temperatures consistently lower than what they normally expect.

“Big swings in spring temps aren’t unusual,” says Martin. “We’ve certainly seen them before. I think the reason it’s coming home to roost a little bit more and has people scratching their heads is the degree of change from the last several years.

“We’ve had pretty dog-gone decent springs over the past handful of years,” he recalled. “We’ve come out of winter early and been able to hit the ground running based on the temps. Last year, precipitation was a big problem, but the temperatures were still decent. This year is the first out of the past five or so that’s really showed us the kind of variability we can see in the spring.”

Ryan will do custom forecasts for your radio and TV stations. Check out his work at www.weatherstud.com.

September 1, 2019September 10, 2019

Weather turns cool but won’t last in Ag country

Here is the full podcast with Bryce Anderson. You can download for later if you like. Just click on the three dots on the right and hit the download box.

Weather and agriculture go together like husband and wife, hand in glove, or ball and chain. I caught up to a guy who knows a lot about agriculture and weather. He’s Bryce Anderson, Senior Ag Meteorologist with DTN.

Temperatures have turned cool in the Midwest recently and it has some farmers concerned about a potential impact on crop development. Anderson says that cool trend is going to continue for several more days.

He says the cooler-than-normal temps cover most of the Corn Belt. In some cases, certain locations in the Corn Belt have been double-digits below where they normally are in late August-early September.

Cool high pressure dropped down from Canada and took control of the weather in the Corn Belt. However, Anderson says that high pressure will begin to move away soon.

Because much of the crops in the ground went in late, all eyes are on the weather forecast and trying to anticipate when that first frost will be. While Anderson says an early frost doesn’t look likely, that may not be good enough for this year’s crops…tape

He says the weather during harvest should be good enough to help farmers get their crops into the bins quicker than last fall. Anderson says the bigger question will be how good the condition of those crops are when they’re taken out of the fields across farm country.