Indiana | Field 2 Field

August 10, 2022August 11, 2022

Rain Finally Shows In Farm Country Last Weekend

Rain. Finally. Last weekend saw at least some rain in parts of farm country. Had a chance to talk with John Baranick (rhymes with mechanic), ag meteorologist for DTN, who lives just down 169 from me in Jordan, Minnesota. He says while the rain benefitted the parts of rural America stuck in a drought, other areas didn’t need a lot of rainfall.

“It wasn’t just here in southern Minnesota. We also saw that it was even heavier south of the border in Iowa, with a lot more four-to-six inch amounts there. Very helpful for some areas, but not a lot of those areas needed it. It also extended down through southern Wisconsin and into Northern Illinois. A lot of those crops, again, didn’t really need it, but it’s definitely helpful wherever it hit. And that front is starting to come through the eastern half of the Corn Belt. Again, a lot of these areas are doing much better than we are out here in the West, but Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio are all seeing bouts of rain this week. They’ve had some flooding in some of these areas, but the rainfall that’s gone through is mostly favorable. It’s just those Western states that just haven’t.”

The Dakotas saw mixed results from the weekend rain.

“South Dakota got some pretty good rainfall. The eastern half of it did, but the western half didn’t, really. North Dakota has kind of been missing out on a bunch of rain lately, although their soil moisture, for the most part, and the crop conditions are still pretty good.”

The Plains States are still struggling with drought…tape

“It’s the states of Nebraska, Kansas, kind of northern Missouri that have missed out on a lot of the rainfall even with these fronts coming through, and they’ve had a lot hotter. Temperatures have been up near or eclipsing 100 degrees very consistently all summer long, so the heat has been putting on a whole lot of stress for those areas.”

There may finally be some cooler air on the way into the Plains next week and may bring at least a little rain with that front…tape

“We’re seeing late next week, maybe mid-to-late next week, a push a cooler air move through and that’s gonna come with a bit of showers too, so it’s not a whole lot of rainfall and probably on the order for most people have a half inch or less, But the temperatures are going to cool back down. Instead of seeing highs in the 90s and up near 100. It’s more like the 70s and 80s for several days, so it’s actually gonna be below-normal temperatures for a bit. That kind of occurs late next week into the following week, so it’ll be a nice relieving break for them.

Unfortunately, many parts of rural America are still stuck in a drought. We’ll talk about that more later this week.

Again, that’s DTN ag meteorologist John Baranick

October 11, 2021October 11, 2021

Harvest 2021 deep dive shows variability

Harvest 2021 is proceeding along at a good pace. Mike Zuzolo is the Founder and President of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas. He took a deep dive last week into the crop progress numbers and found a lot of variability in the results.

“Comparing the pace of the corn harvest 2021 versus the pace of the soybean harvest suggests that the corn yields are indeed a little more variable than beans,” Zuzolo said. “I hate to say lowered because of the issues that we’re seeing with the yields coming in. We’re seeing very good, very top-end yields coming in down in Kansas and Nebraska.

“My business clients and subscribers say strong yields are coming in through certain parts of Illinois,” he added. “However, my question is whether they’re top-end yields. Probably 90 percent of the producers I work with throughout Nebraska and Kansas would say ‘yes,’ we have top-end corn yields, and we’re close to wrapping up. However, central Illinois and central Indiana are probably around 50 percent complete, by comparison.”

Illinois and Indiana farmers are probably close to 75 percent done with soybean harvest 2021, but recent rainfall has slowed them down a bit. His clients in both states are saying they have top0-end yields in just 25 percent of their corn, but everything else is above average.

He thinks the numbers are showing the corn yields are more variable, especially because our corn and soybeans both have low moisture content. Six of the top 18 corn-producing states are at 50 percent or greater on corn harvest. About 29 percent of the national harvest 2021 is done compared to 24 percent at the same time last year.

“Those kinds of numbers are completely upside down when it comes to the soybean harvest,” Zuzolo said. “Just two of the 18 major soybean-producing states are at 50 percent or greater on harvest pace. The national soybean harvest is at 35 percent compared to 34 percent at the same time in 2020.”

Here’s the rest of the conversation.

July 29, 2021July 29, 2021

Ag Economy Turnaround Came Quickly

Ag economy. Have two words ever been gloomier in rural America than they’ve been for the last several years? Well, we’ve had a bit of a turnaround, but my assignment was to find out not only the current state but what might be ahead in the future.

So, I gave Dave Widmar of Agricultural Economic Insights in West Lafayette, Indiana, a call to find out more about the ag economy. He has more than enough experience to make a rational judgment. Before launching out on his own, Dave was a researcher in the Economics Department at Purdue University, as well as the economist for the Kansas Department of Agriculture.

The first thing he told me was that the ag economy turned around quickly. “Not only is it a big difference from 2020 to 2021, but the turnaround also took place in a short period of time,” he said on the phone from his Indiana office. “Last summer, the outlook was very bleak, and it was hard to put together a list of positive things going on.

“Now, just past the midpoint of 2021, we have a very strong outlook with a long list of positive things going for us,” he added. “The biggest piece is higher commodity prices, which have really turned around.”

That turnaround didn’t start until last September, and it has played out quickly over the past several months. That rise in commodity prices has been especially good for corn and soybean producers.

While it’s not as true as it was earlier in 2021, another thing the ag economy and farmers were benefitting from was a low-cost environment. “Over the last six months, fertilizer went from about $9 an acre in the fall of 2020 to between $130 and $140 an acre today,” Widmar says. “Farmland values and cash rental rates have increased as well. But it’s important to recognize that last year and early in 2021, the lower cost structure helped profitability.”

Here’s the rest of the conversation:

January 8, 2021January 8, 2021

Weather forecasting looks dry in farm country

Weather forecasting is always an interesting, sometimes confusing, and occasionally a hotly debated topic. No one is more confused than I am. How do you go from an all but snowless winter to 6-8 inches on the ground a couple days before Christmas? I would have been more than happy with a brown Christmas.

But I digress. The dry weather isn’t a good thing for farm country. For the most part, it seems awfully dry from coast to coast across the U.S. So, when I’ve got questions about the weather, I give Ryan Martin a call over in Indiana. I worked for him over a couple of years, helping him to get his weather forecasting ready to be sent to clients. He’s one of the best forecasters I’ve ever come across and I’ve known several of them.

It’s been a dry winter for the most part in U.S. farm country. A pre-Christmas snowfall turned things white in many areas but did little to alleviate the dry conditions. Ryan Martin is an ag meteorologist who lives in Warsaw, Indiana, and says December was well-below average in terms of moisture.

“All things considered, the precipitation that happened in mid-to-late-December didn’t even get the month of December up to near normal over most of the Upper Midwest, Eastern Corn Belt, Great Lakes, and I’ll even throw parts of the Central Corn Belt in there. Overall, we are still well below normal, and the blanket of snow is uninspiring to me at this point.”

He does some weather forecasting for the Upper Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt.

“Temperatures continue to be well-above-normal. By the time we get to January 15-16, we’ll have put enough days in far enough above normal that it’s going to be difficult to see any kind of cold snap bring the entire month back to below-normal levels. Cold air is pooling in Canada, and weather forecasting says it’s going to come down. I don’t think the second half of January will look anything like the first but is it enough to say January is going to flip to cold all over for the entire month? No way, it’s not going to happen.”

There will likely be some cold air incursions into early February, but he doesn’t see any extended cold snaps after that. The Central and Southern Plains will continue to see above-normal temperatures more often than not.

“We’re spending many more days above normal than we are below. Our concern in the Plains is this continued dry stretch. The overall conditions are not lending themselves to seeing any kind rain come through, or even snow for that matter. We did see a nice blanket of snow in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma out of a winter event a couple of weeks back, but the effects of that are gone now. The wheat greened up a little bit, but I see nothing that says we’re looking at a huge surge of moisture at all over the next 2-3 months.”

Things will likely stay dry and warm in the Delta and the Southeastern States.

“We do have a documented La Nina situation going on. We can see that first of all, from the data coming from the Pacific, but you can see the effects happening down in South America. So, I think as you look into the Gulf Coast states like the lower Delta, we’re already trying to talk about planting or at least getting ready for it here in the next six weeks. I think we’re going to be trending a little bit wet and active, but I guess I’m not concerned about any early hurricane events or anything that will cause a long-term issue in the Deep South. If anything, we’re going to be trending slightly drier there as well.”

The western U.S. will stay dry too.

“Over the Western U.S., generally speaking, we continue to see below-normal precipitation there, and at this point, I don’t see anything that changes that. The high elevations are not seeing any kind of influx of moisture, so I don’t think that fuels anything. I do believe the West Coast is going to stay dry, and La Nina usually helps to fuel that. I’m not going to put this all on a La Nina forecast, but to me, I don’t see anything that says we’re looking at exceptionally-good conditions over the West.”

Again, Ryan Martin is an ag meteorologist from Indiana.

May 7, 2020May 7, 2020

Frost in the Friday night forecast in farm country

Here is the audio podcast with Ryan Martin that you can download to your computer. You can also play it on your mobile device. Just his the play arrow on the left.

Frost in the forecast is rarely a good thing in farm country during any season outside of winter. In an ideal world, the only exception is a killing frost after corn states hit black layer. Of course, we don’t always live in an ideal world, do we? Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, is a long-time agricultural meteorologist who says the threat of some frost damage will begin this weekend.

“The days most in question are Friday night, May 8, into Saturday morning,” he said. “The axis of the coldest air will come across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, east-to-northeast Iowa, northern Illinois, most of Indiana, as well as all of Michigan and Ohio. This is the zone where we’ll see temperatures at 30 degrees or colder.”

He said the coldest air looks to hit Michigan and Ohio this weekend, where we could see some big impact on soft red winter wheat, especially in Ohio. The frost timing is not good as wheat has woken up out of winter dormancy and is moving forward through its growth stages.

“The wheat is at the jointing stage and anytime the crop gets further into its growth, that means the wheat is a little more susceptible to cold temperatures,” Martin said, “depending on how much the temps fall and how long they’re under a certain threshold.

“If wheat is just breaking dormancy and you get a cold snap, you have to be under 28 degrees anywhere between three and five hours,” he added. “When we get into the jointing stage and further along, wheat can barely handle 30 degrees for an hour or two. That’s where the issue lies on wheat this weekend.”

Frost — Ryan Martin, Hoosier Ag Today meteorologist, says the fast pace of planting in 2020 is
going to slow down for a few days due to cooler than normal temps in farm country. (Photo
YouTube.com)

Corn and soybeans will hopefully be a different story. Based on the crop planting progress and emergence reports, Martin, Chief Meteorologist for the Hoosier Ag Today Radio Network, is much more optimistic about those crops being able to survive the freezing temps.

“Illinois leads the way with nine percent of its corn crop emerged,” he said. “In most areas, the growing point of the crop is still going to be below ground, so I don’t think it will mean anything for corn and soybeans on mortality. What it does do is slow down that incredibly fast-paced planting season we’ve seen in many states.”

A couple of other examples include Iowa, which was on a record planting pace during the last planting update, while Minnesota just to the north is no slouch either on planting progress. The Purdue University meteorology graduate says all of the “good stuff” that comes with early-planted corn gets slowed down and “stunted” because of the frost/freeze over the weekend and the extended run of below-normal temps that won’t end till the middle of next week.

“Cold air moved out of Canada and focused on the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and the northeastern United States,” Martin said. “However, there’s an interesting twist ahead in the forecast for the next seven-to-ten days. We’ll start to see temperatures in the below-normal areas start to moderate on May 13 through 15.

“Things will take a drastic switch after that,” he added. “We’ll see above-normal temps in the Eastern Corn Belt, while the Plains may drop down below normal through the last part of May. There’s a lot of air currents, different movements here, different patterns trying to emerge, and it all has to do with where polar air is shifting to this time of year.”

It’s been a bit of an unusual spring so far for many reasons, but I’m just talking about the weather. What we’ve seen so far in terms of temps and precipitation has been very different from recent years. There’s no question, a lot of states have seen temperatures consistently lower than what they normally expect.

“Big swings in spring temps aren’t unusual,” says Martin. “We’ve certainly seen them before. I think the reason it’s coming home to roost a little bit more and has people scratching their heads is the degree of change from the last several years.

“We’ve had pretty dog-gone decent springs over the past handful of years,” he recalled. “We’ve come out of winter early and been able to hit the ground running based on the temps. Last year, precipitation was a big problem, but the temperatures were still decent. This year is the first out of the past five or so that’s really showed us the kind of variability we can see in the spring.”

Ryan will do custom forecasts for your radio and TV stations. Check out his work at www.weatherstud.com.

February 20, 2019March 20, 2019

The Weather stud’s weather forecast

The weather forecast. You know you’re paying extra attention if you live in the Upper Midwest as I do (Minnesota and any of the surrounding states). Simply put, you’re wondering when the white stuff falling from the sky will finally end. After all, it’s getting really hard to find places to pile the extra snow when it’s time to shovel (or snow blow) the driveway. So, I figured it was time to call up my favorite weather guy, Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, to get a weather forecast of what’s coming for different areas of the country in late winter and early spring.

“From Iowa and northward through the Upper Midwest, it’s been a very snow-filled winter to this point,” he said. “We’ve exceeded total snowfall amounts in our forecasts by a little bit. One thing you need to note is the fact that it’s still February.

“We generally expect the snowfall patterns to gradually start to ease up in mid-to-late March,” he added. “I think we’re going to be on track to see that this year. Am I calling for an immediate stoppage of now? No. What I do see is temps switching from below normal to normal to slightly above normal. You’ll see more rain mixing in with the snow as March progresses.”

In the weather forecast for the eastern Corn Belt, including the Ohio River Valley, Indiana, Ohio, and the Great Lakes Region, Martin says things take a more active turn as February turns into early March. There’s going to be some “excessive” precipitation moving through that area.

“Temps are going to be on a roller coaster,” Martin said. “We had the brutal cold snap a few weeks ago but are now transitioning into a period during which temps will average out to normal. But, keep in mind that means you could be ten degrees above normal one day and ten below the next day. I’m seeing a lot of rain in the eastern Corn Belt region, which will have a big impact on Ohio River levels, mid-and-lower-Mississippi River levels, and even the Illinois River levels.

Find out Ryan’s weather forecast for the Plains States, the Delta region, as well as the western United States forecast.