Harvest 2021 is proceeding along at a good pace. Mike Zuzolo is the Founder and President of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas. He took a deep dive last week into the crop progress numbers and found a lot of variability in the results.
“Comparing the pace of the corn harvest 2021 versus the pace of the soybean harvest suggests that the corn yields are indeed a little more variable than beans,” Zuzolo said. “I hate to say lowered because of the issues that we’re seeing with the yields coming in. We’re seeing very good, very top-end yields coming in down in Kansas and Nebraska.
Mike Zuzolo is President and Founder of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas.
“My business clients and subscribers say strong yields are coming in through certain parts of Illinois,” he added. “However, my question is whether they’re top-end yields. Probably 90 percent of the producers I work with throughout Nebraska and Kansas would say ‘yes,’ we have top-end corn yields, and we’re close to wrapping up. However, central Illinois and central Indiana are probably around 50 percent complete, by comparison.”
Illinois and Indiana farmers are probably close to 75 percent done with soybean harvest 2021, but recent rainfall has slowed them down a bit. His clients in both states are saying they have top0-end yields in just 25 percent of their corn, but everything else is above average.
He thinks the numbers are showing the corn yields are more variable, especially because our corn and soybeans both have low moisture content. Six of the top 18 corn-producing states are at 50 percent or greater on corn harvest. About 29 percent of the national harvest 2021 is done compared to 24 percent at the same time last year.
“Those kinds of numbers are completely upside down when it comes to the soybean harvest,” Zuzolo said. “Just two of the 18 major soybean-producing states are at 50 percent or greater on harvest pace. The national soybean harvest is at 35 percent compared to 34 percent at the same time in 2020.”
Mike Zuzolo is president of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas. He spent some time looking over the numbers in the USDA’s Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks Reports. (Photo from globalcommresearch.com)
Planting crops and grain stocks were a topic of conversation in the markets this week. The USDA issued its Prospective Planting and Stocks Reports, with the biggest surprise coming from the planting numbers. Corn planting is estimated at 91.1 million acres, up less than one percent from a year ago. Mike Zuzolo is the President of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas. He says the trade was expecting more corn acres in the report.
“I think that’s right. Look at the news wire estimates. The lowest number we saw was down around 91 million acres. I don’t publish to the newswires anymore because the algo-traders use them to position themselves before the numbers come out. I send stuff out to the producers and investors that I work with. So, I was below 92 and having a really tough time going above 91.5.”
He says one reason farmers may be shying away from more corn acres is the quickly rising cost of inputs. However, corn wasn’t the only surprise in the planting report.
“What was surprising to me is how did the soybeans come in at 87.6 million planted, when the trade, including myself, were closer to 89 and 90 million. What happened was most of the other producers in other parts of the country, including the cotton producer, the sorghum producer, and the rice producer all ‘stayed in their lane’ this year and they kept planting what they normally produce. I think this brings with it a little more questioning, especially with that Deep South looking wetter than normal from the Tennessee River Valley down to Louisiana, so we’re going to have to keep an eye on that because soybean acres could grow, similar to the way corn acres could grow because the of the way the weather is shaping up.”
He says the Deep South weather picture looks wet, while the main corn and soybean areas, especially in the Plains States, are leaning toward a drier pattern.
Zuzolo was disappointed in USDA’s prediction of 46.4 million all-wheat acres, the fourth-lowest planted area since records began in 1919.
“I think the big thing we saw in the planting that I’ll wrap up with, and this is where we have a leader to the downside, and that is the wheat market. We wanted it to be the leader to the upside with the drought in the High Plains and Central Plains and in the hard red wheat belt specifically, driving prices higher and make corn that much more expensive, not allowing wheat to get into a feed category. But unfortunately, we are seeing the wheat-corn spread dip into the 50-60-cent per bushel range. Soft red wheat minus corn, that is feed category for wheat, that is the lowest since late 2017.”
Corn planting totaled 91.1 million acres, up less than one percent from a year ago. Soybeans are estimated at 87.6 million acres, up five percent. All wheat acres are 46.4 million, up five percent. The all-cotton planting projection for 2021 is 12 million acres, one percent lower than last year.
The Stocks Report showed corn stocks down three percent from last year, soybean stocks down 31 percent, and all wheat stocks were seven percent lower than 2020.
“I was glad that the soybeans came in a little bit higher and would rather have it that way, and the wheat a little bit higher than the corn. The corn came in at 67 million bushels, 37 million bushels light, versus the average trade guess. And so, that keeps your old crop corn well bid.”
Corn in all positions totaled 7.7 billion bushels, down three percent from last year. Soybeans stored in all positions were 1.56 billion bushels, 31 percent lower than last March. All wheat stored in positions totaled 1.31 billion bushels, seven percent lower than last year. Durum wheat stocks in all positions were 42.7 billion bushels, 17 percent lower than last year.
Again, that’s Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics in Kansas.
Chicken wings and the Super Bowl go together like Abbot and Costello, socks and shoes, and w(h)ine and cheese (that last one is mostly for Packer fans – but I digress). The National Chicken Council says when Americans get together to watch the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, February 7, a lot of us will chow down on chicken wings. The good news is there will be plenty of wings available for everyone.
Tom Super is the Senior Vice President of Communications for the NCC, a 16-year-veteran of the position. He says America’s obsession with chicken wings and the Super Bowl has grown a lot in recent years. They are projecting Americans will scarf down a record 1.42 billion chicken wings to celebrate this year’s Big Game.
We love our chicken wings and the Super Bowl. Americans really seem to love them at the same time and will eat a lot of them on Super Bowl Sunday. (photo from narcity.com)
“That’s up two percent from last year,” he says, “and that’s despite the complications brought on by COVID-19. When we put together our recent chicken wing report for the Super Bowl, I thought for sure we’d see a decline in the number of wings Americans will eat.
“COVID has been very hard on restaurants,” Super said. “When talking to folks in the industry, when looking at the demand numbers, and when looking at the price of wings and all the other factors involved in consumption, they’ve never been a hotter product.”
Chicken wings had an advantage over a lot of other foods served at your local restaurants. Super points out that restaurants like wing joints and pizza places were built around takeout and delivery. When indoor dining was limited or shut down, those places didn’t have to change their business model as much as other establishments. They kept right on going with carryout and delivery orders while other restaurants completely shut down.
“Wings travel well, and they hold up during delivery conditions,” he said. “They also align with consumer desires for comfort food during COVID-19.”
Chicken farmers did a great job maintaining their production through 2020, and Super says there wasn’t much of a production drop-off compared to the previous year. There should be an adequate supply level to accommodate Super Bowl fans across the country.
So, let’s put some perspective on how many chicken wings make up that estimated 1.42 billion wings that we’ll eat on Super Bowl Sunday. In simple terms, that’s a lot of chicken.
“If you were to line them up end-to-end, it would circle the entire circumference of the Earth three times,” Super says. “If you laid them end-to-end from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, they’d stretch back-and-forth 19 times.
The Super Bowl and chicken wings go together like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes will on Sunday, February 7, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo from washingtonpost.com)
“Let’s look at it another way,” he added. “Let’s assume that Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid could eat three wings in a minute – and yes, the actual number is probably higher – but if he ate three every minute, it would take him more than 900 years to eat 1.42 billion chicken wings.”
Some Americans are bone-in chicken wing eaters, while others prefer the boneless wings. What type of wings do the majority of football fans prefer?
America’s favorite sauce for our wings might not be what you think it is.
“We should let people know that there will not be a shortage of wings this year,” Super said. “Restaurants, food service, and retailers started pulling wings out of cold storage as far back as November to prepare for the big day.”
If there is a rush on chicken wings in the days and hours before Super Bowl Sunday, Super has this bit of advice: “Don’t wait till the last second,” he says. “That’s my advice.”
