David Widmar, an agricultural economist with Agricultural Economic Insights. (Photo from www.aei.ag)
2023 and the ag economy combine to produce some trepidation as we look to next year. While the ag economy is doing okay despite several challenges like supply chain delays and high input costs, the question is how long this will last into next year. I talked with David Widmar, an agricultural economist with Agricultural Economic Insights in West Lafayette, Indiana.
There are no doubts that commodity prices are showing a lot of volatility at the end of this year, and Widmar says that’s causing a lot of angst. However, it’s generally still a positive story in the farm economy. But what’s ahead next year?
“We do expect that positive story to continue into 2023,” he said during the 2022 National Association of Farm Broadcasting’ annual convention in Kansas City. “One of the biggest reasons why is tight commodity inventories across all commodities in the U.S. and globally.”
The problem is when things get tight for corn, soybeans, and wheat, we really can’t substitute one crop for another. All of those crops will want to maintain their acreage shares. The idea of “robbing Peter to pay Paul” won’t work.
“We can’t plant fewer corn acres to make up for soybeans or vice versa,” he said. “So, everything is tight, and that will continue to be part of the narrative going into 2023.
“We know one thing about2023,” Widmar added. “There will come a point when we oversupply. We’ll bring in new production acres around the world, including South America, Southeast Asia, India, and hopefully Russia and Ukraine in the long term.”
The other thing that will eventually affect the markets is the possibility of big yields. There’s been a recent run of average to slightly below-average U.S. corn yields. “Eventually, more acres and yields will push us over again.”
Here’s the entire conversation during the NAFB’s Trade Talk event in Kansas City.
Chicken wings and the Super Bowl go together like Abbot and Costello, socks and shoes, and w(h)ine and cheese (that last one is mostly for Packer fans – but I digress). The National Chicken Council says when Americans get together to watch the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, February 7, a lot of us will chow down on chicken wings. The good news is there will be plenty of wings available for everyone.
Tom Super is the Senior Vice President of Communications for the NCC, a 16-year-veteran of the position. He says America’s obsession with chicken wings and the Super Bowl has grown a lot in recent years. They are projecting Americans will scarf down a record 1.42 billion chicken wings to celebrate this year’s Big Game.
We love our chicken wings and the Super Bowl. Americans really seem to love them at the same time and will eat a lot of them on Super Bowl Sunday. (photo from narcity.com)
“That’s up two percent from last year,” he says, “and that’s despite the complications brought on by COVID-19. When we put together our recent chicken wing report for the Super Bowl, I thought for sure we’d see a decline in the number of wings Americans will eat.
“COVID has been very hard on restaurants,” Super said. “When talking to folks in the industry, when looking at the demand numbers, and when looking at the price of wings and all the other factors involved in consumption, they’ve never been a hotter product.”
Chicken wings had an advantage over a lot of other foods served at your local restaurants. Super points out that restaurants like wing joints and pizza places were built around takeout and delivery. When indoor dining was limited or shut down, those places didn’t have to change their business model as much as other establishments. They kept right on going with carryout and delivery orders while other restaurants completely shut down.
“Wings travel well, and they hold up during delivery conditions,” he said. “They also align with consumer desires for comfort food during COVID-19.”
Chicken farmers did a great job maintaining their production through 2020, and Super says there wasn’t much of a production drop-off compared to the previous year. There should be an adequate supply level to accommodate Super Bowl fans across the country.
So, let’s put some perspective on how many chicken wings make up that estimated 1.42 billion wings that we’ll eat on Super Bowl Sunday. In simple terms, that’s a lot of chicken.
“If you were to line them up end-to-end, it would circle the entire circumference of the Earth three times,” Super says. “If you laid them end-to-end from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, they’d stretch back-and-forth 19 times.
The Super Bowl and chicken wings go together like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes will on Sunday, February 7, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo from washingtonpost.com)
“Let’s look at it another way,” he added. “Let’s assume that Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid could eat three wings in a minute – and yes, the actual number is probably higher – but if he ate three every minute, it would take him more than 900 years to eat 1.42 billion chicken wings.”
Some Americans are bone-in chicken wing eaters, while others prefer the boneless wings. What type of wings do the majority of football fans prefer?
America’s favorite sauce for our wings might not be what you think it is.
“We should let people know that there will not be a shortage of wings this year,” Super said. “Restaurants, food service, and retailers started pulling wings out of cold storage as far back as November to prepare for the big day.”
If there is a rush on chicken wings in the days and hours before Super Bowl Sunday, Super has this bit of advice: “Don’t wait till the last second,” he says. “That’s my advice.”
U.S. Dairy Export President and CEO Tom Vilsack spoke at the #NAFB19 convention in Kansas City, appearing more optimistic about the future of the U.S. dairy industry than in recent years. (Photo by Chad Smith)
Dairy industry officials know firsthand that the industry has struggled in recent years, and there’s no question about it. Former Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack, who spoke to broadcasters during the National Association of Farm Broadcasting’s annual convention in Kansas City. Vilsack, is the current President and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council. He says in spite of some tough years for the American dairy industry, there are reasons for optimism.
News broke this week that Dean Foods, America’s largest milk producing company in the dairy industry, filed for bankruptcy. I had a chance for some one-on-one comments with the former Ag Secretary, who preferred to talk more about the positive signs ahead in the dairy industry than the bad news about Dean Foods.
He took a lot of questions from farm broadcasters on a variety of topics in the dairy industry. One of the biggest topics in recent months is the growing market for plant-based “milks.” He and the rest of the dairy industry aren’t happy with these companies referring to themselves as “milk.” The question came from Orien Samuelson, the dean of farm broadcasters and a good friend of Vilsack.
He says the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement making its way through the House of Representatives, all be it slowly because of Democratic concerns, is another reason to be optimistic. He’s confident that the agreement will get done.
It’s hard to believe that folks in Washington, D.C. are already talking about the next Farm Bill. The reason for that is House Ag Committee Chair Collin Peterson, a Minnesota Democrat, isn’t sure yet if he’ll be running for re-election in 2020. He’s said publicly that decision will be coming in either January or February. Vilsack said even if Peterson doesn’t run again, the next farm bill will get done.
Lastly, as President of the Dairy Export Council, he pays close attention to the country’s export situation, which hasn’t been great at all thanks to trade disputes. In spite of that, with agreements pending in Japan, as well as in North America, exports are another reason to be optimistic.
