Missouri | Field 2 Field

February 20, 2023February 20, 2023

Shipping Commodities is Near-Normal, For Now

Shipping commodities up and down America’s inland waterway system got pretty hard to do in 2022, especially along the Mississippi River. Extended drought cut water levels to almost impassable levels and resulted in shipping grinding to a halt in the river. The good news is those levels are finally beginning to rebound.

Mike Steenhoek is the executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, a group that keeps a sharp eye on shipping and the waterways year-round. They’re happy to see those river levels starting to rise because ships are once again carrying commodities to southern ports in the U.S.

“Meaningful precipitation has occurred over the past several months,” he said from Ankeny, Iowa. “It’s made a significant impact throughout the entire inland waterway system.”

Steenhoek offered up Memphis, Tennessee, as an example, calling it one of the “ground-zero” locations for the low-water conditions last fall. That location is currently 10-10.5 feet of water depth in relation to the gauge.

“Last year at this time, we were at 19 feet,” he recalled. “So, we’re below last year. To give that some perspective, we were just about at a negative 11 feet in late October. We’re easily more than 20 feet better than we were in October, which is a significant increase making shipping easier.”

St. Louis, Missouri, was another example of “ground zero” in the low water level picture. That location is just a bit higher than at the same time in 2022, so the area has seen a nice rebound from the low levels. He says the moral of the story is the waterways have returned to a degree of “normalcy.” But there is a catch.

“It won’t take a lot of sustained dry conditions to tip us right back into lower conditions,” Steenhoek said. “It could critically impact some of those areas like St. Louis to Cairo, Illinois.”

Shipping commodities is getting back to near-normal levels, for now. The waterways need continued rainfall in case dry weather returns. (Photo by AgFax)

Cairo (pronounced KAY-row) is a significant point in the waterway system. That’s where the Ohio River meets the Mississippi and provides a big influx of water into the system so that St. Louis to Cairo area can be very susceptible to low water conditions.

How dry did some of those areas get? The levels sank so low that ships were actually running aground and getting stuck in the Mississippi River. When that happens, one of two things usually occurs.

“Those ships sometimes had to get dug out,” he recalled. “Sometimes, they had to sit there until water levels rose to the point they could move again.

We also had sediment buildup, or ‘shoaling,’ in multiple locations,” Steenhoek said. “That resulted in shipping having to stop or significantly slow down. That meant there was a lot of dredging activity occurring last year and continuing into 2023.”

The timing for ships getting stuck last fall was awful, as that’s a time when a high percentage of U.S. exports occurs between September and February. “That’s when the U.S. soybean spigot is turned on and we supply a lot of soybeans to the world market,” he said. “Bad time for one of the main ways we move product to our ports to go down.”

Steenhoek monitors shipping in the waterways closely and says there is good movement up and down the waterways right now. U.S. export volumes are comparable to even a little higher than where they were last year.

“That’s really good news,” he said. “The reports I’m getting, particularly from the export facilities down in the New Orleans area, say they are back to a healthy degree of normalcy.

“As I mentioned, we’d love to see steady precipitation continue,” Steenhoek added. “We don’t have a lot of excess water in the tank to rely on if things go that dry again.”

August 10, 2022August 11, 2022

Rain Finally Shows In Farm Country Last Weekend

Rain. Finally. Last weekend saw at least some rain in parts of farm country. Had a chance to talk with John Baranick (rhymes with mechanic), ag meteorologist for DTN, who lives just down 169 from me in Jordan, Minnesota. He says while the rain benefitted the parts of rural America stuck in a drought, other areas didn’t need a lot of rainfall.

“It wasn’t just here in southern Minnesota. We also saw that it was even heavier south of the border in Iowa, with a lot more four-to-six inch amounts there. Very helpful for some areas, but not a lot of those areas needed it. It also extended down through southern Wisconsin and into Northern Illinois. A lot of those crops, again, didn’t really need it, but it’s definitely helpful wherever it hit. And that front is starting to come through the eastern half of the Corn Belt. Again, a lot of these areas are doing much better than we are out here in the West, but Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio are all seeing bouts of rain this week. They’ve had some flooding in some of these areas, but the rainfall that’s gone through is mostly favorable. It’s just those Western states that just haven’t.”

The Dakotas saw mixed results from the weekend rain.

“South Dakota got some pretty good rainfall. The eastern half of it did, but the western half didn’t, really. North Dakota has kind of been missing out on a bunch of rain lately, although their soil moisture, for the most part, and the crop conditions are still pretty good.”

The Plains States are still struggling with drought…tape

“It’s the states of Nebraska, Kansas, kind of northern Missouri that have missed out on a lot of the rainfall even with these fronts coming through, and they’ve had a lot hotter. Temperatures have been up near or eclipsing 100 degrees very consistently all summer long, so the heat has been putting on a whole lot of stress for those areas.”

There may finally be some cooler air on the way into the Plains next week and may bring at least a little rain with that front…tape

“We’re seeing late next week, maybe mid-to-late next week, a push a cooler air move through and that’s gonna come with a bit of showers too, so it’s not a whole lot of rainfall and probably on the order for most people have a half inch or less, But the temperatures are going to cool back down. Instead of seeing highs in the 90s and up near 100. It’s more like the 70s and 80s for several days, so it’s actually gonna be below-normal temperatures for a bit. That kind of occurs late next week into the following week, so it’ll be a nice relieving break for them.

Unfortunately, many parts of rural America are still stuck in a drought. We’ll talk about that more later this week.

Again, that’s DTN ag meteorologist John Baranick

February 23, 2022February 23, 2022

Spring: when does it get here?

Spring weather is always a fun conversation across farm country, whether in the local coffee shop, after church, or during a sidewalk stroll down any small-town street in America. I came across a recent article from the National Weather Service saying that March might have above-normal temperatures and was intrigued. So, I got on the phone for an assignment from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting and began digging.

My first phone call was to Dennis Todey, the director of the Midwest Climate Hub in Ames, Iowa. As far as the March forecast goes, the veteran meteorologist says it depends on one thing: location, location, and location.

“The farther north you go, the less chance you have of being above normal during March,” Todey said. “But we should begin to rebound fairly quickly after the recent cold stretch that brought snow into parts of the Upper Midwest.”

Spring weather — Dennis Todey is the director of the Midwest Climate Hub in Ames, Iowa. (photo from climatehubs.usda.gov)

What you may not know is most of the cold that covered parts of the Upper Midwest was originally supposed to stay well to the north, especially up in Canada. Some of that cold worked its way into the North Central U.S., but it’s been limited mainly to the areas with snow cover.

As you go further west in the Northern Plains, there is less snow cover, so the temps haven’t been quite as cold. “The probabilities are not big, but the possibility of some warmer temperatures is there,” Todey said.

Looking out beyond March to the spring weather forecast, again, it all depends on which location you’re referring to. Out in the Eastern Corn Belt from Central Illinois and further east, they’ve had several storm events move through the area. The outlook in that location continues to look wet there.

“Planting delays are definitely on the radar in that location,” Todey said.

It’s the opposite in the Central and Southern Plains, where drought conditions have steadily grown worse in recent months as it’s been a dry and warm winter. The big question is whether the area is going to get any moisture anytime soon.

“It’s going to be interesting in the eastern Dakotas and parts of Minnesota,” he said. “They got some moisture late last year and recently picked up some recent snow as well.

“Places like Missouri and Iowa are more of a mixed bag right now,” he said. “Iowa still has some carryover dry soils, and then we have some dry soils in parts of Wisconsin in areas that keep missing out on moisture events.”

Speaking of dry weather, a good-sized part of rural America is short of moisture. The shortage in the plains begins in Nebraska and stretches to the south. It’s dry to very dry, but the lack of moisture doesn’t stop there.

“Parts of Iowa and Wisconsin are quite dry,” Todey said. “It’s quite dry in northern Illinois, which is a carryover from last year. Depending on which part you’re talking about, parts of the Dakotas had moisture while others didn’t get enough moisture for runoff for ponds and dugouts from a livestock standpoint.”

The winter wheat crop is really struggling because of the dry weather. The spring weather forecast hopefully has some moisture in it to help the wheat crop to at least somewhat rebound from the poor conditions.

As winter begins to wind down and spring gets closer, Todey has noticed an interesting trend in recent years when it comes to winter weather. Up here in Minnesota, we were able to take the dog for a walk in short sleeves or light jackets into November of 2021, which is almost becoming more of the norm rather than the exception.

“Winter has been showing up later than normal in recent years,” he said after some thought on the matter. “Let me frame this climatologically for you.

“The 90 coldest days on average for most of the Upper Midwest are typically December, January, and February,” Todey said. “That’s based on looking at data over the last 30 years. We’ve seen some of the coldest events of the winter occurring in late February.”

While late-winter snow isn’t uncommon, the larger events have been coming later and later, so “something is going on that’s a little different.”

November 14, 2019November 14, 2019

Dairy Industry is “Optimistic” at #NAFB19

Dairy industry officials know firsthand that the industry has struggled in recent years, and there’s no question about it. Former Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack, who spoke to broadcasters during the National Association of Farm Broadcasting’s annual convention in Kansas City. Vilsack, is the current President and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council. He says in spite of some tough years for the American dairy industry, there are reasons for optimism.

News broke this week that Dean Foods, America’s largest milk producing company in the dairy industry, filed for bankruptcy. I had a chance for some one-on-one comments with the former Ag Secretary, who preferred to talk more about the positive signs ahead in the dairy industry than the bad news about Dean Foods.

He took a lot of questions from farm broadcasters on a variety of topics in the dairy industry. One of the biggest topics in recent months is the growing market for plant-based “milks.” He and the rest of the dairy industry aren’t happy with these companies referring to themselves as “milk.” The question came from Orien Samuelson, the dean of farm broadcasters and a good friend of Vilsack.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbopKYObCAs&feature=youtu.be

He says the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement making its way through the House of Representatives, all be it slowly because of Democratic concerns, is another reason to be optimistic. He’s confident that the agreement will get done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCURYBZ6IIo&feature=youtu.be

It’s hard to believe that folks in Washington, D.C. are already talking about the next Farm Bill. The reason for that is House Ag Committee Chair Collin Peterson, a Minnesota Democrat, isn’t sure yet if he’ll be running for re-election in 2020. He’s said publicly that decision will be coming in either January or February. Vilsack said even if Peterson doesn’t run again, the next farm bill will get done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHU9-7w_CVU&feature=youtu.be

Lastly, as President of the Dairy Export Council, he pays close attention to the country’s export situation, which hasn’t been great at all thanks to trade disputes. In spite of that, with agreements pending in Japan, as well as in North America, exports are another reason to be optimistic.

April 6, 2019April 6, 2019

Spring Planting Waiting for Drier Weather

By Chad Smith

Farm country is getting closer and closer to spring planting. Farmers are starting to look at their planters longingly, dreaming of being out in the field. After a wet winter that resulted in serious flooding problems, the nation’s midsection is looking for a spell of dry weather. However, ag meteorologist Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, says planters are likely going to sit a spell yet. It’s important to remember that we’re way too early to think about seriously-delayed spring planting.

“It probably going to be late this month or early into next month before planters get rolling,” Martin said. “It’s way too early to start thinking about serious spring planting delays. We’re actually not even at first planting dates in a large part of the Corn Belt yet.

Heartland Forecast

“As I look at the pattern stretching all the way from the Great Plains through the Corn Belt, we’ve got a big weather system that wants to move through late this weekend (Sunday, April 7 possibly through early Tuesday the 9^th). There won’t be a lot of good drying time after that running through the end of the week.”

After that, there’s another system in the 11-to-16-day forecast that may have 1-3 inches of rain coming across all the key growing areas. Martin says, flooding and current situation aside, the forecast doesn’t give farmers enough of a window in there to really start spring planting en masse.

Spring Planting — The Elkhorn River in Nebraska is way over its banks, covering up a lot of farm ground in Nebraska. Spring planting is likely to be delayed in a large part of the Midwest and Corn Belt because of flooding just like this. (Photo from Omaha.com)

Parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri have been devastated by flooding this spring, and the dry weather farmers are looking for really isn’t going to happen. “I don’t think so,” he said. “The way the pattern looks over the next 10 days, I’m counting two systems that come through. One won’t have a huge amount of rain, but the second one could bring as much as a quarter-inch to as much as 1.25 inches.

“Normally at this time of year that would be good news,” Martin added. “But, the way things are set up right now it’s just not good.”

Southern Plains/Delta

There are some planters rolling deeper in the Southern Plains and in the Delta. Martin said the weather pattern in that part of the country shows that farmers may have to dodge some thunderstorms in order to keep spring planting going forward.

“Fronts will be coming through but as they do, they won’t hit everyone at the same time,” he said. “Over the next three weeks or so, those storms will end up with about 60-70 percent coverage at any given time. It doesn’t look too excessive to me right now. It’ll be a hodgepodge type of activity that should eventually allow crops into the ground and then get the crops the kind of rainfall they need to get going.”

The pattern for the heaviest rains wants to stay a little farther north into the Central Plains and the Missouri Valley Corn Belt areas. The interesting area to watch will be the far east part of the Deep South, where the likelihood of getting the crop in the ground on time is pretty good.

“Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and up into Tennessee are places where temperatures might lag a little behind normal,” Martin said. “There could be some thunderstorm development but I’m not quite as bullish on rain or bearish on getting spring planting in the Deep South done as I am farther north.”

Potential Flooding Possible in Upper Midwest

There won’t be as much happening in the western states in terms of precipitation like there will be in other parts of the country. The biggest story in the western U.S. won’t be in terms of new systems moving through. It’ll more likely involve snowpack runoff. The interesting thing about snowpack runoff is the problems won’t necessarily be just out west.

“The Red River likely will hit major flood stage in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota,” he said. “There is snowpack that goes all the way back up into Montana and into the northern Rockies. The biggest question is just how fast we’ll see that snow melt and move through the area.

“The question is whether we’ll see a fast snowmelt with temps above normal,” he added. “That could be the story more than new systems coming through. Temperatures are still a little squirrely as temps likely will lag behind normal due to all that snowpack that still sits on the ground in those areas I mentioned.”

Here’s the entire conversation: