Tag: Red River

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Spring weather forecast showing less flooding

Spring weather is never a dull topic of conversation in the Midwest, is it? We went from a fantastic week of mild weather leading up to Easter to a run of below-normal temps and snowfall on Easter Sunday. While it was only a couple inches here in Maple Grove, there were much higher amounts elsewhere. I talked weather with Bryce Anderson of DTN, who says it’s not unusual at all to get snow during April.

“That has certainly happened many times before,” he said. “The heavy snow was certainly unwelcome because it set back farmer fieldwork for a while, probably a week later than they wanted.

This is what spring weather looked like in a good deal of the Central Plains and Midwest when flooding hit farmers hard. The good news in the spring weather forecast this year is the threat of flooding has moderated, depending on where you live. (Photo from curbed.com)

Farmers are certainly chomping at the bit to get spring fieldwork done to get ready for planting. Remember April 15th of 2019 and the big snowstorm that moved through the Midwest? Here on the west side of the Twin Cities, we picked up 17 inches of snow last year. Happy Tax Day, right? However, despite that recent round of spring weather, Anderson doesn’t expect the monumental planting delays we saw last year during one of the roughest springs in recent memory.

Here’s a quick recap of a rough spring in 2019, courtesy of PBS:

“It won’t be a repeat of last year by any means,” he said emphatically. “Despite storm activity that moved through the southwestern and central United States, things were starting to moderate as we headed into the weekend. That colder arctic air we saw come into the Midwest over Easter was very slow in leaving the region, so that’ll also set fieldwork back a bit.”

One area of good news in the spring weather forecast is he’s not as worried about widespread flooding in farm country as he was a month ago. However, the caveat is that it depends on where you live. Still, things have slowed down some on that front.

“It’s not just me saying that either,” Anderson said. “Hydrologists with the Corps of Engineers have said the movement of the higher water throughout the nation’s river systems has been better than they hoped it would be. However, that doesn’t mean we won’t have trouble spots.

“The James River Valley that runs through South Dakota and the Red River Valley in North Dakota and Minnesota are still at flood stage,” he said. “In the Delta, there are streams in some portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley where flooding is still ongoing.”

Unfortunately for farmers and folks in those areas, flooding will likely continue in those areas for some time yet. Anderson did say that there likely aren’t going to be any new flood threats that develop in the spring weather forecast for farm country unless there’s a drastic change in the weather pattern. Before the recent run of cold and snow, farmers have gotten some planting done this spring in the eastern Corn Belt.

“There has been some soybean planting in Illinois and Indiana,” he said. “Growers in the western Corn Belt likely haven’t gotten very busy yet. In other areas of the Delta, corn planting is way behind in states like Mississippi and Arkansas. They likely won’t get a lot done after the recent run of storms and rainfall that recently hit southern areas.

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Spring Planting Waiting for Drier Weather

By Chad Smith

Farm country is getting closer and closer to spring planting. Farmers are starting to look at their planters longingly, dreaming of being out in the field. After a wet winter that resulted in serious flooding problems, the nation’s midsection is looking for a spell of dry weather. However, ag meteorologist Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, says planters are likely going to sit a spell yet. It’s important to remember that we’re way too early to think about seriously-delayed spring planting.

“It probably going to be late this month or early into next month before planters get rolling,” Martin said. “It’s way too early to start thinking about serious spring planting delays. We’re actually not even at first planting dates in a large part of the Corn Belt yet.

Heartland Forecast

“As I look at the pattern stretching all the way from the Great Plains through the Corn Belt, we’ve got a big weather system that wants to move through late this weekend (Sunday, April 7 possibly through early Tuesday the 9th). There won’t be a lot of good drying time after that running through the end of the week.”

After that, there’s another system in the 11-to-16-day forecast that may have 1-3 inches of rain coming across all the key growing areas. Martin says, flooding and current situation aside, the forecast doesn’t give farmers enough of a window in there to really start spring planting en masse.

Spring Planting
The Elkhorn River in Nebraska is way over its banks, covering up a lot of farm ground in Nebraska. Spring planting is likely to be delayed in a large part of the Midwest and Corn Belt because of flooding just like this. (Photo from Omaha.com)

Parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri have been devastated by flooding this spring, and the dry weather farmers are looking for really isn’t going to happen. “I don’t think so,” he said. “The way the pattern looks over the next 10 days, I’m counting two systems that come through. One won’t have a huge amount of rain, but the second one could bring as much as a quarter-inch to as much as 1.25 inches.

“Normally at this time of year that would be good news,” Martin added. “But, the way things are set up right now it’s just not good.”

Southern Plains/Delta

There are some planters rolling deeper in the Southern Plains and in the Delta. Martin said the weather pattern in that part of the country shows that farmers may have to dodge some thunderstorms in order to keep spring planting going forward.

“Fronts will be coming through but as they do, they won’t hit everyone at the same time,” he said. “Over the next three weeks or so, those storms will end up with about 60-70 percent coverage at any given time. It doesn’t look too excessive to me right now. It’ll be a hodgepodge type of activity that should eventually allow crops into the ground and then get the crops the kind of rainfall they need to get going.”

The pattern for the heaviest rains wants to stay a little farther north into the Central Plains and the Missouri Valley Corn Belt areas. The interesting area to watch will be the far east part of the Deep South, where the likelihood of getting the crop in the ground on time is pretty good.

“Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and up into Tennessee are places where temperatures might lag a little behind normal,” Martin said. “There could be some thunderstorm development but I’m not quite as bullish on rain or bearish on getting spring planting in the Deep South done as I am farther north.”

Potential Flooding Possible in Upper Midwest

There won’t be as much happening in the western states in terms of precipitation like there will be in other parts of the country. The biggest story in the western U.S. won’t be in terms of new systems moving through. It’ll more likely involve snowpack runoff. The interesting thing about snowpack runoff is the problems won’t necessarily be just out west.

“The Red River likely will hit major flood stage in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota,” he said. “There is snowpack that goes all the way back up into Montana and into the northern Rockies. The biggest question is just how fast we’ll see that snow melt and move through the area.

“The question is whether we’ll see a fast snowmelt with temps above normal,” he added. “That could be the story more than new systems coming through. Temperatures are still a little squirrely as temps likely will lag behind normal due to all that snowpack that still sits on the ground in those areas I mentioned.”

Here’s the entire conversation: