soybeans | Field 2 Field

May 7, 2020May 7, 2020

Frost in the Friday night forecast in farm country

Here is the audio podcast with Ryan Martin that you can download to your computer. You can also play it on your mobile device. Just his the play arrow on the left.

Frost in the forecast is rarely a good thing in farm country during any season outside of winter. In an ideal world, the only exception is a killing frost after corn states hit black layer. Of course, we don’t always live in an ideal world, do we? Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, is a long-time agricultural meteorologist who says the threat of some frost damage will begin this weekend.

“The days most in question are Friday night, May 8, into Saturday morning,” he said. “The axis of the coldest air will come across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, east-to-northeast Iowa, northern Illinois, most of Indiana, as well as all of Michigan and Ohio. This is the zone where we’ll see temperatures at 30 degrees or colder.”

He said the coldest air looks to hit Michigan and Ohio this weekend, where we could see some big impact on soft red winter wheat, especially in Ohio. The frost timing is not good as wheat has woken up out of winter dormancy and is moving forward through its growth stages.

“The wheat is at the jointing stage and anytime the crop gets further into its growth, that means the wheat is a little more susceptible to cold temperatures,” Martin said, “depending on how much the temps fall and how long they’re under a certain threshold.

“If wheat is just breaking dormancy and you get a cold snap, you have to be under 28 degrees anywhere between three and five hours,” he added. “When we get into the jointing stage and further along, wheat can barely handle 30 degrees for an hour or two. That’s where the issue lies on wheat this weekend.”

Frost — Ryan Martin, Hoosier Ag Today meteorologist, says the fast pace of planting in 2020 is
going to slow down for a few days due to cooler than normal temps in farm country. (Photo
YouTube.com)

Corn and soybeans will hopefully be a different story. Based on the crop planting progress and emergence reports, Martin, Chief Meteorologist for the Hoosier Ag Today Radio Network, is much more optimistic about those crops being able to survive the freezing temps.

“Illinois leads the way with nine percent of its corn crop emerged,” he said. “In most areas, the growing point of the crop is still going to be below ground, so I don’t think it will mean anything for corn and soybeans on mortality. What it does do is slow down that incredibly fast-paced planting season we’ve seen in many states.”

A couple of other examples include Iowa, which was on a record planting pace during the last planting update, while Minnesota just to the north is no slouch either on planting progress. The Purdue University meteorology graduate says all of the “good stuff” that comes with early-planted corn gets slowed down and “stunted” because of the frost/freeze over the weekend and the extended run of below-normal temps that won’t end till the middle of next week.

“Cold air moved out of Canada and focused on the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and the northeastern United States,” Martin said. “However, there’s an interesting twist ahead in the forecast for the next seven-to-ten days. We’ll start to see temperatures in the below-normal areas start to moderate on May 13 through 15.

“Things will take a drastic switch after that,” he added. “We’ll see above-normal temps in the Eastern Corn Belt, while the Plains may drop down below normal through the last part of May. There’s a lot of air currents, different movements here, different patterns trying to emerge, and it all has to do with where polar air is shifting to this time of year.”

It’s been a bit of an unusual spring so far for many reasons, but I’m just talking about the weather. What we’ve seen so far in terms of temps and precipitation has been very different from recent years. There’s no question, a lot of states have seen temperatures consistently lower than what they normally expect.

“Big swings in spring temps aren’t unusual,” says Martin. “We’ve certainly seen them before. I think the reason it’s coming home to roost a little bit more and has people scratching their heads is the degree of change from the last several years.

“We’ve had pretty dog-gone decent springs over the past handful of years,” he recalled. “We’ve come out of winter early and been able to hit the ground running based on the temps. Last year, precipitation was a big problem, but the temperatures were still decent. This year is the first out of the past five or so that’s really showed us the kind of variability we can see in the spring.”

Ryan will do custom forecasts for your radio and TV stations. Check out his work at www.weatherstud.com.

February 2, 2020February 2, 2020

Coronavirus and Possible Effects on Commodity Markets

Coronavirus. As it continues to make headlines, commodity experts are wondering what kind of effect the spread of the virus will have on markets. Joe Vaclavik, President of Standard Grains in Chicago, says the outbreak will have some effect, but it’s hard to tell what kind or for how long.

“It’s not a positive. I don’t know that it’s the biggest negative in the world. It could be, and that’s why you’re seeing liquidation in some of these markets, like the stock market, and that’s why you’re seeing the grain markets soften up. Nobody wants to be long in this stuff. The Coronavirus probably goes the way of SARS, or some of these other similar types of outbreaks that we’ve last a month, maybe two months, maybe the better part of a year. Then, it probably makes its way out of the headline.”

He says the possibility of a significant impact on markets has likely grown over the past couple of weeks.

“There’s always that risk that it turns into something much bigger. It could eventually disrupt the flow of trade. Maybe there’s a country out there that decides to throw up trade barriers and says ‘hey, we don’t want corn from the U.S. because they’ve got too much of that virus going around. There’s always that sort of risk on the table.”

Mike Zuzolo, President of Global Commodity Analytics in Kansas, says the virus will likely have a significant impact on China’s poultry flocks. Separate reports have millions of chickens “on the edge of death.” But they aren’t necessarily sick with Coronavirus.

“Animal feed suppliers cannot get their shipments through, raw materials can’t get through, and this also corresponds with another article from the South China Morning Post that said hedging is not being done, soy meal is not being hedged, so soybeans are not being bought. I think what you’re looking at is probably pent-up demand for the livestock industry and that 300-million chickens die because of not being fed because of Coronavirus. That number of pounds of protein, you’re going to have to replace, eventually.”

There is a long-term buying potential for commodities, but only if the virus outbreak doesn’t last longer than reports are suggesting.

“If China and the scientists are correct and we see a peak in the maximum pressure of this virus, outbreaks of this virus, and, in the next 7-10 days, the price action we’re seeing right now will not last. It will set up a long-term buying potential for commodities.”

Again, that’s Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics, as well as Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grains.

October 22, 2019October 22, 2019

Harvest season in MN requiring extra patience

Here’s another chadsmithmedia podcast, this time with Houston and Fillmore County Extension Educator Michael Cruse, talking harvest progress in southeast Minnesota.

Harvest season. Never a dull moment in farm country. It’s never an easy season for anyone, regardless of what the growing season was like. This year’s ridiculously wet growing season is going to make things even more challenging, which is not exactly a state secret.

The harvest season is officially underway in southeast Minnesota. A few days of drier and windier weather last week allowed some crops to come out of fields across the area. Houston and Fillmore County Extension Educator Michael Cruse said timing appears to be everything when it comes to fall harvesting in 2019.

“I’m glad you called me later last week, rather than on Monday,” Cruse said. “I would have been much more down on the situation earlier last week. However, a couple of windy days helped some farmers take some corn and beans out of their fields. In spite of that, we’re still behind and we’ll still be scrambling to make sure everything gets done before the ground freezes. At least we’re starting to make some progress.”

The excess rainfall this year means the crops will come out of the fields much wetter than normal. He said the recent windy days seem to have put soybeans into pretty good shape. But, the corn is still going to require some time in the dryer, which isn’t a big surprise this harvest season.

Harvest season is underway in southeast Minnesota, all be it slowly, according to Michael Cruse of the University of Minnesota Extension Service. There’s still a long way to go in very we conditions. (Photo from UMN.Extension.Edu)

“The beans are actually drying down to the point that it looks like they’ll be okay,” Cruse said. “Just be patient with them. Obviously, the last thing you want is to get a big snowfall on top of them, but they seem to be coming along. However, the hard truth is that the majority of our corn crop will come out of the field too wet.

“No matter how long we wait this fall, we just won’t have the drying conditions to get that corn down to optimal moisture,” he added. “That’s probably why we see a lot of farmers working corn right now. They know there’s going to be a bottleneck while the corn has to sit in their dryers and it’s going to take some time. Get a head start because it’s going to take a while.”

September 1, 2019September 10, 2019

Weather turns cool but won’t last in Ag country

Here is the full podcast with Bryce Anderson. You can download for later if you like. Just click on the three dots on the right and hit the download box.

Weather and agriculture go together like husband and wife, hand in glove, or ball and chain. I caught up to a guy who knows a lot about agriculture and weather. He’s Bryce Anderson, Senior Ag Meteorologist with DTN.

Temperatures have turned cool in the Midwest recently and it has some farmers concerned about a potential impact on crop development. Anderson says that cool trend is going to continue for several more days.

He says the cooler-than-normal temps cover most of the Corn Belt. In some cases, certain locations in the Corn Belt have been double-digits below where they normally are in late August-early September.

Cool high pressure dropped down from Canada and took control of the weather in the Corn Belt. However, Anderson says that high pressure will begin to move away soon.

Because much of the crops in the ground went in late, all eyes are on the weather forecast and trying to anticipate when that first frost will be. While Anderson says an early frost doesn’t look likely, that may not be good enough for this year’s crops…tape

He says the weather during harvest should be good enough to help farmers get their crops into the bins quicker than last fall. Anderson says the bigger question will be how good the condition of those crops are when they’re taken out of the fields across farm country.

August 30, 2019August 30, 2019

Agricultural trade opportunities are still out there

Here’s the podcast with Jeremy Miller. If you want to download it for later, go ahead and click on the three dots on the right side of the player and hit download.

Agricultural Trade is a sore topic of conversation these days. The agricultural sector in Minnesota and around the country has been struggling for more than a year due in large part to trade disputes with other nations, including the biggest one with China. However, there is some good news out there in international market opportunities for Minnesota farmers. District 28 Republican Senator Jeremy Miller recently took part in an overseas trade mission to Taiwan July 21-26 and says there are opportunities out there for Minnesota farmers to find markets for their commodities.

“A representative from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Chicago reached out to me earlier this year about leading a multi-state, bipartisan legislative leaders’ delegation to Taiwan,” he recalled. “Before we go any further, people have asked who paid for the trip. I want to make it clear that the trip was paid for by Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The whole purpose of the trip was to develop relationships between the United States of America, specifically Minnesota, and partners in Taiwan.”

It was the second trip Miller has taken overseas, with the first one taking place in South Korea back in 2011. He said the number one focus of these trips is to “meet people,” with the number two focus of “looking at opportunities.” The third and most important focus of the trip is “developing relationships” to see what kinds of business dealings can evolve in the future.

“The potential is there for a lot of different relationships between Minnesota and Taiwan,” he said. “By far, the biggest opportunity I see in Taiwan is for agricultural trade. Minnesota already exports a good number of crops, especially soybeans, to Taiwan. I think there’s even more opportunity there, whether it be for corn, more soybeans, and especially for pork.”

Miller looked into the numbers and found that Minnesota exported about $413 million worth of goods to Taiwan in 2018. However, that number is likely to go higher. “Last year, there was a agricultural trade mission to Taiwan that both Minnesota and Iowa took part in,” he recalled. “On that trip, Taiwan signed a $1.5 billion-dollar deal to buy 3.9 million metric tons of soybeans from both Minnesota and Iowa before 2021.

“What I’m driving at is there are even more opportunities for Minnesota and Taiwan to increase the amount of business done,” Miller said. “But, it comes down to keep lines of communication open and building on those relationships once they’re established.”

July 11, 2019July 11, 2019

July WASDE is nothing more than a “placeholder”

The July World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate Report (WASDE) didn’t make many changes from the previous month. In fact, it wasn’t worth much at all to a lot of the industry. USDA admitted it will have a better picture of planted acres in the U.S. after resurveying producers this month and releasing the updated numbers in August.

Joe Vaclavik, founder and president of Standard Grain in Chicago, says this month’s WASDE report was considered by many to be a “placeholder.”

He’s not surprised that the number didn’t change a great deal from the last report…tape

There weren’t a lot of surprises on the demand side of the WASDE report…tape

Vaclavik says the grain stocks numbers likely aren’t accurate…tape

With this round of WADE reports done, Vaclavik says the markets are very much locked in on two things. He tells agweb.com that markets will be watching weather and the August report. “Because of the variability in both crop conditions and crop progress, it’s very, very difficult for anyone to look at a weather forecast or pattern and say if it’s bullish or bearish,” Vaclavik says.

He says a lot of farmers might be looking for a rise in prices because this year’s crop is anticipated to be very small. “Just because the crop is light doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to go higher,” Vaclavik says. “You don’t want to completely abandon any semblance of a marketing plan. We’ve been hoping to get to these corn prices, and it took five or six years to finally get back here.

“Be ready for volatility,” he added. “The environment will continue to be volatile until we learn more about the crop in August.”

Again, Joe Vaclavik is President and Founder of Standard Grains.

October 19, 2018

USSEC Initiative Helping Move Extra Soybeans

It’s well-known that the trade dispute between the United States and China has hit the U.S. soybean industry hard. China, once the biggest buyer of U.S. soybeans, is no longer purchasing large volumes of beans. That means a lot of the product needs to find new markets. The U.S. Soybean Export Council is working on a new initiative called “What It Takes,” which is designed to help deal with the backlog of soybeans that need to be shipped and sold.

“When the tariff dispute cranked up in April, we were all hopeful that it would be a short-term thing,” said USSEC CEO Jim Sutter. “While it could change at any time, we’d better plan for it to be a longer-term ordeal. It’s made even more challenging by the complex issues between the two countries. There’s more than soybeans involved, with a lot at stake.”

“It was a huge shock to what our industry has gotten used to in terms of marketing plans,” Sutter said. “Our team has been very busy working with exporters. We’re trying to help them in any market where they might have potential customers. We’re also working with importers around the world, telling them about the attributes and possibilities that U.S. soy holds for them.”

Sutter said most overseas markets have purchased at least some U.S. soybeans. There are just a few that haven’t yet. U.S. beans are priced very competitively around the world right now, making them a more affordable option than in past years.

Soybeans have really backed up in the Pacific Northwest. Exporters there typically sell most of their beans to China. USSEC is focusing on encouraging potential customers to come to the PNW as they look for soybeans, and they’ve been successful at it. Taiwan has purchased soybeans in the Pacific Northwest for the first time in 15 years.

“We’re doing a lot of work in other Asian countries, which we think would be a logical destination for those beans from the Pacific Northwest.”

Here’s the complete conversation:

Here’s a refresher on just how USSEC helps improve things for soybean farmers:

July 23, 2018

MDA Gathering Info on Potential Dicamba Damage

The Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) is again gathering information on plant damage that may have been caused by the use of the herbicide dicamba. The MDA is encouraging anyone with damage in the 2018 growing season to complete a survey or register a formal complaint. The survey will be open until September 15.

Last year, the MDA received 253 complaints related to the use of dicamba in Minnesota. The complaints centered on off-target movement that impacted non-dicamba tolerant soybeans, other sensitive crops, as well as non-crop plants. The University of Minnesota estimates the damaged area totaled 265,000 acres across the state.

In an effort to prevent off-target movement incidents this year, the MDA added additional restrictions to the herbicide’s application: a June 20 cutoff date and an 85 degree Fahrenheit temperature cutoff. As of July 23, 2018, the MDA had received 30 reports of alleged dicamba damage. Not all of those reports requested an investigation.

“It is important that we continue to monitor the situation this year and gather as much data as we can,” said Assistant Commissioner Susan Stokes. “Last year’s survey gave us very valuable information, and this year’s survey will help the department as we look ahead to the 2019 growing season.”

Dicamba is an herbicide used to control broadleaf weeds in dicamba tolerant soybeans, corn and a variety of other food and feed crops, as well as in residential areas. Dicamba belongs to a class of herbicides that are volatile, and can drift and/or volatilize from the intended application area if not used according to the label. Off-target movement may cause unintended impacts such as serious damage to non-targeted crops.

If you believe dicamba was used in violation of the label or law, and you wish to request an MDA investigation, you will also need to complete the pesticide misuse complaint form or call the Pesticide Misuse Complaint line at 651-201-6333.

You can find more information on dicamba at http://www.mda.state.mn.us/dicamba.

Here’s a refresher from the North Carolina Soybean Association on spotting different levels of dicamba damage: