Spring | Field 2 Field

September 22, 2022September 22, 2022

Commodities, Sports, and Prognostication

Commodities and sports typically don’t go together most years. However, this fall, the two topics have come together in an interesting way.

Being a long-time sports broadcaster, I’ve noticed that when the major sports seasons wrap up, certain sports media love to immediately do what they call a “way-too-early” look to the next season. Evidently, it’s not just a sports thing.

I know harvest is just ramping up in many areas as I write this, but Farm Futures took what some might think is a “way-too-early” survey of planting intentions for 2023, and I couldn’t pass it up. It looks like corn will be king once again next spring among all commodities.

Commodities — Corn looks to be king when it comes to 2023 spring planting (photo from agriculture.com)

Jacqueline Holland is the grain market analyst for Farm Futures, and she wrote an article about the survey. She says the way-too-soon survey results are favoring corn for spring planting despite some challenges that come with the commodity.

“Even with higher fertilizer prices, farmers are still prepared to go all-in on corn,” she said. “Our survey found that farmers expect to plant 94.3 million acres of corn, a five percent increase from USDA’s current acreage estimates.”

If that prediction is realized, it would be the most corn planted in the U.S. since 95.4 million acres went into the ground in 2013. While soybean acres will be behind corn next year, U.S. growers are still sowing a lot of beans during spring planting in 2023.

“We expect farmers to plant 87.3 million acres of beans,” Holland said. “That’s almost a one percent decrease from this year’s acreage.” Cotton is one of the reasons that soybean acreage is going to drop a little. In the Mississippi Delta, a lot of acres in that region are going to provide “stiff competition” for soybeans during spring planting.

They also expect wheat acres to rise in 2023 thanks to more winter wheat acres in the Eastern Corn Belt. Farm Futures expects growers to plant 36.6 million acres of winter wheat. With more winter wheat acres going in the ground, spring wheat acres will back up from this year, with the 2023 estimate at 12.3 million acres.

“That means a grand total of 48.9 million acres of wheat will be planted in 2023,” she said.

Holland admits she was a little surprised at the survey results. She says there was a lot of price responsiveness to the rapidly-rising fertilizer prices heading into spring planting this year.

“When farmers were making their planting decisions in December last year, soybean prices were rallying strongly,” Holland recalled. “But with all of the issues we’ve seen with the flow of corn in the Black Sea this year, as well as the U.S. corn crop struggling with drought, corn has some bullish prospects for next year.”

She says if we do see a larger corn acreage next year, that might lead to some expansion back in the cattle market. In turn, that would likely revive some corn acreage in the Plains. Remember, about three million acres of corn went into prevent plant in the spring of this year.

“A lot of those acres were in the Dakotas and Minnesota,” she said. “Barring another bad weather event next year, I expect those acres to go back into corn in 2023.”

Farm Futures also has other questions in their survey beyond commodities and planting intentions. Those questions include where farmers are headed with input costs next year. Based on the survey responses, Holland says profit margins are going to shrink next year. The question is, how much?

“As of right now, it doesn’t look like growers are going to skimp on any fertilizer applications,” Holland said. “Most responses show farmers are ready to lock in their fertilizers at the lowest prices they can get. That will hopefully keep at least some liquidity in these crop budgets.

“We’ll see how these things ultimately shake out for planting and commodities,” she added. “There’s a long time between now and next spring.”

February 23, 2022February 23, 2022

Spring: when does it get here?

Spring weather is always a fun conversation across farm country, whether in the local coffee shop, after church, or during a sidewalk stroll down any small-town street in America. I came across a recent article from the National Weather Service saying that March might have above-normal temperatures and was intrigued. So, I got on the phone for an assignment from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting and began digging.

My first phone call was to Dennis Todey, the director of the Midwest Climate Hub in Ames, Iowa. As far as the March forecast goes, the veteran meteorologist says it depends on one thing: location, location, and location.

“The farther north you go, the less chance you have of being above normal during March,” Todey said. “But we should begin to rebound fairly quickly after the recent cold stretch that brought snow into parts of the Upper Midwest.”

Spring weather — Dennis Todey is the director of the Midwest Climate Hub in Ames, Iowa. (photo from climatehubs.usda.gov)

What you may not know is most of the cold that covered parts of the Upper Midwest was originally supposed to stay well to the north, especially up in Canada. Some of that cold worked its way into the North Central U.S., but it’s been limited mainly to the areas with snow cover.

As you go further west in the Northern Plains, there is less snow cover, so the temps haven’t been quite as cold. “The probabilities are not big, but the possibility of some warmer temperatures is there,” Todey said.

Looking out beyond March to the spring weather forecast, again, it all depends on which location you’re referring to. Out in the Eastern Corn Belt from Central Illinois and further east, they’ve had several storm events move through the area. The outlook in that location continues to look wet there.

“Planting delays are definitely on the radar in that location,” Todey said.

It’s the opposite in the Central and Southern Plains, where drought conditions have steadily grown worse in recent months as it’s been a dry and warm winter. The big question is whether the area is going to get any moisture anytime soon.

“It’s going to be interesting in the eastern Dakotas and parts of Minnesota,” he said. “They got some moisture late last year and recently picked up some recent snow as well.

“Places like Missouri and Iowa are more of a mixed bag right now,” he said. “Iowa still has some carryover dry soils, and then we have some dry soils in parts of Wisconsin in areas that keep missing out on moisture events.”

Speaking of dry weather, a good-sized part of rural America is short of moisture. The shortage in the plains begins in Nebraska and stretches to the south. It’s dry to very dry, but the lack of moisture doesn’t stop there.

“Parts of Iowa and Wisconsin are quite dry,” Todey said. “It’s quite dry in northern Illinois, which is a carryover from last year. Depending on which part you’re talking about, parts of the Dakotas had moisture while others didn’t get enough moisture for runoff for ponds and dugouts from a livestock standpoint.”

The winter wheat crop is really struggling because of the dry weather. The spring weather forecast hopefully has some moisture in it to help the wheat crop to at least somewhat rebound from the poor conditions.

As winter begins to wind down and spring gets closer, Todey has noticed an interesting trend in recent years when it comes to winter weather. Up here in Minnesota, we were able to take the dog for a walk in short sleeves or light jackets into November of 2021, which is almost becoming more of the norm rather than the exception.

“Winter has been showing up later than normal in recent years,” he said after some thought on the matter. “Let me frame this climatologically for you.

“The 90 coldest days on average for most of the Upper Midwest are typically December, January, and February,” Todey said. “That’s based on looking at data over the last 30 years. We’ve seen some of the coldest events of the winter occurring in late February.”

While late-winter snow isn’t uncommon, the larger events have been coming later and later, so “something is going on that’s a little different.”

September 22, 2021September 22, 2021

Dry Weather in Time for 2021 Harvest

Dry weather is a never-ending talker at the local coffee shops during the growing season, but even more during harvest. Farmers can get a lot of work done in a short time if the weather stays dry. John Baranick (rhymes with ”mechanic”) is a meteorologist with DTN, who says things might be a little drier as harvest continues to speed up across most of farm country.

Drying Off for Harvest

“A high-pressure ridge will continue to move into the Pacific Northwest and will block a lot of moisture from reaching the Upper Midwest for several days,” Baranick says. “Now through the last week of September should be pretty good for getting out there and harvesting the crops.”

The 2021 drought dried out a big chunk of rural America this year, but over the last several weeks, much of the American farm country saw consistent rainfall. Baranick, an Iowa State University graduate with degrees in meteorology and agronomy, says the consistent rain has recharged at least some of the deficit in soil moisture.

“It has,” he said. “We’ve seen some good rainfall in Minnesota, Iowa, the eastern Dakotas, Wisconsin, and Eastern Nebraska over the past several weeks. The level of drought keeps getting reduced in many of those areas. Some areas in the category of D3 drought were eliminated in northeastern South Dakota and northwest Iowa.

“Unfortunately, most of these areas have been so far behind on rainfall that getting almost a summer’s worth of rainfall in a month wasn’t enough to eliminate the drought,” Baranick added.

He estimates that dry weather has put most areas around 6 to 8 inches behind on their average rainfall totals. It’s even worse in western South Dakota. “I was talking to someone that farms out there, and he’s 10 inches behind on their average rainfall total,” he added. “We’re way behind, and it’s going to take a lot of rain to reverse that trend.”

Baranick, a meteorologist with DTN since 2011, says the fall season will have a lot of variability in the systems moving through rural America. Early September featured some good rainfall, but for the rest of September into October and November, he says they don’t see a strong signal either way of above-normal precipitation that will eat into some of that dryness.

“Some areas may improve a bit while others could degrade,” he said. “I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of movement either way through the fall season. We also don’t see a lot of moisture recharge during the winter season either,” Baranick said.

“Even with good precipitation over the winter, an extra inch or two isn’t going to bite into the five, six, or even eight inches of rainfall deficit we’re looking at,” he said. “We’re going to be dependent here in all these drier areas across the Western Corn Belt, especially the Northwest Corn Belt, for recharging our soil moisture and getting next season’s crop off to a good start.”

Plains Staying Dry Too

Dry weather is affecting he Great Plains from southern Nebraska down through Texas, which makes up the country’s largest winter wheat-producing area. A recent look at the Drought Monitor showed drier areas spreading out quite a bit across even more of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas.

“We’re looking for some rainfall in many of these areas because it’s also been hot,” Baranick said. “The temps have been above 90 and approaching 100 degrees on many days. The temps have been way above normal, and it’s sucking the moisture right out of the soil. Unfortunately, any systems potentially coming through this week don’t look like they have a lot of moisture.”

The Plains State have been and still are quite dry in 2021. (Photo from bismarktribune.com)

He says that high pressure setting up in the western U.S. will help keep systems at bay in much of the Plains as well. Unfortunately, the above-normal temps and dry weather in the forecast will continue to sap the remaining soil moisture.

Looking ahead to the fall and winter seasons in the south, we’re heading into a La Niña weather pattern, which typically means warm and dry weather in southern states. These areas seeing their soil moisture drying away don’t have a lot of immediate hope for building that back into the soil.

“For wheat production in the Plains, we’re going to be dependent on moisture coming into the region,” he said. “Hopefully, fall rains will be timely enough to get some good root development in wheat through the fall before they go dormant in the winter.

“We’re hoping that the rains turn on right away when we get out of the La Niña in the spring,” Baranick added. “If we don’t, the winter wheat crop in the Plains is going to be hurting.”

South Finally Drying Up After Storms

Hurricane Ida and Tropical Storm Nicholas brought a lot of extra water to the Southern States and the Delta Region. Moisture coming into the region off the Gulf of Mexico was difficult to turn off.

Hurricane Ida, followed by Tropical Storm Nicholas, brought far too much moisture and damage in the south. Drier weather is on the way, so hopefully cotton and soybeans can dry out in time for harvest. (Photo from wkrg.com)

“We will see some dry weather conditions finally get into the South,” he said. “That’s good because it’s going to take a bit for soybeans and cotton to dry off.”

September 12, 2021September 12, 2021

Fergus Falls and a broken dam exploration

Fergus Falls was calling me over the weekend, and that call finally proved irresistible. I’d heard through the grapevine about the ruins of an old dam along the Otter Tail River that collapsed back in the day. Well, I quit listening after the word “ruins” because I already knew I wanted to see “Broken Down Dam Park.”

Here’s a short video tour of the broken dam

Folks in that area built what’s called a hydroelectric gravity dam on the river in 1907. The dam was built out of concrete and powered a plant called the Fergus Falls City Light Station. The station provided power to city residents for just a year before disaster struck.

Approaching the Broken Down Dam (Photo by Chad Smith)

The large concrete dam suddenly collapsed in 1909, and you did not want to be downriver from the massive wall of water that suddenly rushed down the Otter Tail River. Can you image the roar of all that water moving at once?

One part of the Broken Down Dam near Fergus Falls that gives the dam it’s name. (Photo by Chad Smith

The dam broke at 4:20 in the morning on September 24, 1909, and the power of all that water releasing at once broke not one, not two, not three, but FOUR other dams downriver. Atlas Obscura says there were reports that the water was so powerful, it picked up a ten-ton generator and threw it into the river. Thankfully, no one died as a result of what was a catastrophe of immense size.

A wiki article (which I was able to validate in several other web pages) says that engineers made a crucial mistake when they constructed the dam. They didn’t conduct a proper site evaluation and wound up building on top of a spring. While I don’t pretend to understand how a spring can flow separately from a river while occupying the same space, it only took a year for the water pressure to build up along the foundations. The rupture washed out the concrete foundation and undermined the structural integrity of the dam, which then collapsed.

The Broken Down Dam, first built near Fergus Falls in 1907, collapsed to to an engineering error. (Photo by Chad Smith)

The dam broke in the center, and the rushing water first took out the Kirk Dam, which powered the city’s waterworks. The water then took out the Mount Faith Avenue Bridge before sweeping away the Red River Mill Dam and Woolen Mill Dam. Damage to the two mills totaled $15,000, with the damage in today’s economy equivalent to $432,000 in 2020.

Conspiracy theory alert: The Dayton Hollow Dam, five miles southwest of where the dam broke, was saved from destruction. The dam’s owner, Vernon Wright, had enough warning to hustle down there in time to get the floodgates open. The conspiracy? He also was president of the Otter Tail Power Company.

The biggest break in the Broken Down Dam. (Photo by Chad Smith)

The city of Fergus Falls then hired Otter Tail Power to build transmission lines into town. That helped spawn a local rumor, fueled by the newspaper, that Wright deliberately destroyed the city’s dam by secretly distributing quicksilver from a rowboat to undermine it.

Broken Down Dam Park was established in 1949, an 11-acre parcel of land. When the water level on the Otter Tail River is high, the flow can go fast enough between the blocks of the structure to create Class 3 rapids.

Here is the link to my complete photo album from Broken Dam.

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?vanity=chad.smith.75685&set=a.4467526469974421

May 7, 2020May 7, 2020

Frost in the Friday night forecast in farm country

Here is the audio podcast with Ryan Martin that you can download to your computer. You can also play it on your mobile device. Just his the play arrow on the left.

Frost in the forecast is rarely a good thing in farm country during any season outside of winter. In an ideal world, the only exception is a killing frost after corn states hit black layer. Of course, we don’t always live in an ideal world, do we? Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, is a long-time agricultural meteorologist who says the threat of some frost damage will begin this weekend.

“The days most in question are Friday night, May 8, into Saturday morning,” he said. “The axis of the coldest air will come across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, east-to-northeast Iowa, northern Illinois, most of Indiana, as well as all of Michigan and Ohio. This is the zone where we’ll see temperatures at 30 degrees or colder.”

He said the coldest air looks to hit Michigan and Ohio this weekend, where we could see some big impact on soft red winter wheat, especially in Ohio. The frost timing is not good as wheat has woken up out of winter dormancy and is moving forward through its growth stages.

“The wheat is at the jointing stage and anytime the crop gets further into its growth, that means the wheat is a little more susceptible to cold temperatures,” Martin said, “depending on how much the temps fall and how long they’re under a certain threshold.

“If wheat is just breaking dormancy and you get a cold snap, you have to be under 28 degrees anywhere between three and five hours,” he added. “When we get into the jointing stage and further along, wheat can barely handle 30 degrees for an hour or two. That’s where the issue lies on wheat this weekend.”

Frost — Ryan Martin, Hoosier Ag Today meteorologist, says the fast pace of planting in 2020 is
going to slow down for a few days due to cooler than normal temps in farm country. (Photo
YouTube.com)

Corn and soybeans will hopefully be a different story. Based on the crop planting progress and emergence reports, Martin, Chief Meteorologist for the Hoosier Ag Today Radio Network, is much more optimistic about those crops being able to survive the freezing temps.

“Illinois leads the way with nine percent of its corn crop emerged,” he said. “In most areas, the growing point of the crop is still going to be below ground, so I don’t think it will mean anything for corn and soybeans on mortality. What it does do is slow down that incredibly fast-paced planting season we’ve seen in many states.”

A couple of other examples include Iowa, which was on a record planting pace during the last planting update, while Minnesota just to the north is no slouch either on planting progress. The Purdue University meteorology graduate says all of the “good stuff” that comes with early-planted corn gets slowed down and “stunted” because of the frost/freeze over the weekend and the extended run of below-normal temps that won’t end till the middle of next week.

“Cold air moved out of Canada and focused on the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and the northeastern United States,” Martin said. “However, there’s an interesting twist ahead in the forecast for the next seven-to-ten days. We’ll start to see temperatures in the below-normal areas start to moderate on May 13 through 15.

“Things will take a drastic switch after that,” he added. “We’ll see above-normal temps in the Eastern Corn Belt, while the Plains may drop down below normal through the last part of May. There’s a lot of air currents, different movements here, different patterns trying to emerge, and it all has to do with where polar air is shifting to this time of year.”

It’s been a bit of an unusual spring so far for many reasons, but I’m just talking about the weather. What we’ve seen so far in terms of temps and precipitation has been very different from recent years. There’s no question, a lot of states have seen temperatures consistently lower than what they normally expect.

“Big swings in spring temps aren’t unusual,” says Martin. “We’ve certainly seen them before. I think the reason it’s coming home to roost a little bit more and has people scratching their heads is the degree of change from the last several years.

“We’ve had pretty dog-gone decent springs over the past handful of years,” he recalled. “We’ve come out of winter early and been able to hit the ground running based on the temps. Last year, precipitation was a big problem, but the temperatures were still decent. This year is the first out of the past five or so that’s really showed us the kind of variability we can see in the spring.”

Ryan will do custom forecasts for your radio and TV stations. Check out his work at www.weatherstud.com.

April 27, 2020April 27, 2020

Farmer optimism hits an all-time low

Farmer optimism is in the dumper and there is no nice way to say it. COVID-19 and its economic impact, low commodity prices, trade wars, and weather have made life even more challenging. DTN found out that farmer optimism is at a record low. They’ve been doing a tri-annual survey of farmers for several years and this spring’s Agricultural Confidence Index hit an all-time low mark.

The baseline for their survey is 100. Everything below 100 is pessimistic, and any number above 100 is considered optimistic.

“We do our survey in the spring, just before planting,” said DTN Editor-In-Chief Greg Horstmeier. “We also do one at harvest, and then our final survey is in December, which is basically farm tax time. The drop in the index from the last time we did this in December is not a surprise, given everything that’s going on.

“It was a record-sized drop down to an index reading of 67,” he added. “That’s a 97-point drop, which is even more remarkable because we’re hearing that agriculture is moving on as normal. Everyone is either getting ready to or heading out into the field, so that big of a damper on the survey results is surprising.”

Horstmeier said spring is typically the most optimistic time of the year for farmers. New crops are going into the ground, which automatically means a fresh start, especially if the year before was as tough as 2019. Low optimism in the spring isn’t unusual. What’s unusual about this survey is how pessimistic farmers are about the future outlook.

The future outlook is typically very optimistic during the spring survey. “This year, that index reading was 73, which means it dove hard into negative territory,” Horstmeier said. “That was the big takeaway for me. Not only does the current situation have farmers in a pessimistic state of mind, but they don’t have a lot of promise for the foreseeable future.”

Another thing that really stood out was just how prevalent the pessimism is in different sectors of agriculture. It didn’t matter what farmers grew or how big their operations were, either. Even in down years, there’s typically difference worth noting.

“We typically see at least some differences between, for example, livestock and crop producers,” Horstmeier said. “We’ve also seen regional differences, such as the Midwest may be less optimistic than farmers in the Southeast. The pessimism was across the board, regardless of location, income level, the crops they grew, and what kind of enterprises they had.”

Speaking of Midwest farmers, in this year’s survey they showed the most pessimism currently, yet they also had the most optimism for the future. Southeastern farmers were more optimistic about their current conditions (89) but felt less optimism for their future (56).

DTN also conducts a similar survey of agribusinesses. The index level came in at a just-above-neutral 104. Agribusinesses rated their current conditions at a slightly pessimistic 85. However, they were above neutral when looking at the future, coming in at 118.

Here’s the link to the DTN survey article.

April 27, 2020April 27, 2020

Prevented planting and cover crops: 2019 Lessons Learned

Prevented planting, cover crops, and a wet fall taught farmers across the Midwest a lot of lessons going into 2020. The South Dakota NRCS has put together a short film

Watch this 3 1/2-minute video which is part of a new mini series for #agriculture.

In this discussion, farmers and specialists go over some of the lessons learned in 2020.

Wet August 2019 conditions prevented some cover crops from being planted; farmers were left weighing up terminating covers in the fall or leaving them to overwinter and provide spring growth; the perspective of experienced cover croppers on their attitudes to reseeding of covers (e.g., buckwheat) and how they deal with them.

prevented planting — Cover crops and prevent plant acres in 2019; the South Dakota NRCS documented some lessons learned from last year and how they apply to the 2020 crop year. (Photo from NPR.org(

“Growing Resilience” is intended to help farmers and ranchers gain insights into 2020 crop year thinking from eight farmers and several technical specialists from the South Dakota NRCS and SDSU. Filmed in late-February 2020 in Mitchell and Crooks, SD, these recorded conversations offer candid comments on issues they faced on 2019 Prevented Planting acres, and how their soil improvement journey makes their fields more resilient.

These short video stories provide farmers and ranchers with ideas and options to consider now and for future growing seasons. Additional resources, including technical guidelines, are available on our website at www.sd.nrcs.usda.gov > Soils > Growing Resilience with Soil Health.Specialists with the USDA NRCS are respecting social distancing and are available by phone or email for answering questions. Please visit farmers.gov/service-center-locator to find the latest COVID19 operational status and a directory with your local office and employee contact information.

Please feel free to “like and share” on your favorite social media!

Initiated by the USDA NRCS with a Partnership Work Group.
Produced by the University of South Carolina in collaboration
with the USDA NRCS serving South Dakota.

The views and opinions of the farmer participants expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.

March 19, 2020March 19, 2020

Spring sports in Minnesota on hold, for now

Here’s the complete conversation with John Loney, Rushford-Peterson High School Athletic Director, looking ahead to the possibility of spring sports. No question, there’s a lot of uncertainty right now.

Spring sports in Minnesota have been put on hold, just as many other sectors of the state have, due to the coronavirus. Just as spring sports athletes across the state were getting underway with practices they’ll have to take a short break. The Minnesota State High School League (MSHSL) suspended all activities between Wednesday, March 18, through Friday, March 27.

Because of the Emergency Executive Order signed on March 15 by Governor Tim Walz, there will be no MSHSL activities and athletics at any of the member schools. That includes training, practices, scrimmages, and contests. Rushford-Peterson Athletic Director John Loney says students won’t have any organized practices with coaches after Tuesday, March 17.

“As of right now, we’re scheduled to return to school on March 30,” he said. The activities association says we can resume spring sports on April 6. I’m sure they’ll be gathering information and monitoring the situation leading up to that date.

“The one thing we have going for us here is the spring activities we offer are all outside,” Loney added. “They are also not quite as physical as basketball and football, where kids spend a lot of time running into each other.”

Loney is concerned about the fact that the recommended number of people in group settings keeps getting smaller to help control the spread of coronavirus, which could be a challenge for getting spring sports contests going once school resumes. Loney is still hoping to get at least some games in so the seniors can end their high school years on a positive note.

April 6, 2019April 6, 2019

Spring Planting Waiting for Drier Weather

By Chad Smith

Farm country is getting closer and closer to spring planting. Farmers are starting to look at their planters longingly, dreaming of being out in the field. After a wet winter that resulted in serious flooding problems, the nation’s midsection is looking for a spell of dry weather. However, ag meteorologist Ryan Martin of Warsaw, Indiana, says planters are likely going to sit a spell yet. It’s important to remember that we’re way too early to think about seriously-delayed spring planting.

“It probably going to be late this month or early into next month before planters get rolling,” Martin said. “It’s way too early to start thinking about serious spring planting delays. We’re actually not even at first planting dates in a large part of the Corn Belt yet.

Heartland Forecast

“As I look at the pattern stretching all the way from the Great Plains through the Corn Belt, we’ve got a big weather system that wants to move through late this weekend (Sunday, April 7 possibly through early Tuesday the 9^th). There won’t be a lot of good drying time after that running through the end of the week.”

After that, there’s another system in the 11-to-16-day forecast that may have 1-3 inches of rain coming across all the key growing areas. Martin says, flooding and current situation aside, the forecast doesn’t give farmers enough of a window in there to really start spring planting en masse.

Spring Planting — The Elkhorn River in Nebraska is way over its banks, covering up a lot of farm ground in Nebraska. Spring planting is likely to be delayed in a large part of the Midwest and Corn Belt because of flooding just like this. (Photo from Omaha.com)

Parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri have been devastated by flooding this spring, and the dry weather farmers are looking for really isn’t going to happen. “I don’t think so,” he said. “The way the pattern looks over the next 10 days, I’m counting two systems that come through. One won’t have a huge amount of rain, but the second one could bring as much as a quarter-inch to as much as 1.25 inches.

“Normally at this time of year that would be good news,” Martin added. “But, the way things are set up right now it’s just not good.”

Southern Plains/Delta

There are some planters rolling deeper in the Southern Plains and in the Delta. Martin said the weather pattern in that part of the country shows that farmers may have to dodge some thunderstorms in order to keep spring planting going forward.

“Fronts will be coming through but as they do, they won’t hit everyone at the same time,” he said. “Over the next three weeks or so, those storms will end up with about 60-70 percent coverage at any given time. It doesn’t look too excessive to me right now. It’ll be a hodgepodge type of activity that should eventually allow crops into the ground and then get the crops the kind of rainfall they need to get going.”

The pattern for the heaviest rains wants to stay a little farther north into the Central Plains and the Missouri Valley Corn Belt areas. The interesting area to watch will be the far east part of the Deep South, where the likelihood of getting the crop in the ground on time is pretty good.

“Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and up into Tennessee are places where temperatures might lag a little behind normal,” Martin said. “There could be some thunderstorm development but I’m not quite as bullish on rain or bearish on getting spring planting in the Deep South done as I am farther north.”

Potential Flooding Possible in Upper Midwest

There won’t be as much happening in the western states in terms of precipitation like there will be in other parts of the country. The biggest story in the western U.S. won’t be in terms of new systems moving through. It’ll more likely involve snowpack runoff. The interesting thing about snowpack runoff is the problems won’t necessarily be just out west.

“The Red River likely will hit major flood stage in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota,” he said. “There is snowpack that goes all the way back up into Montana and into the northern Rockies. The biggest question is just how fast we’ll see that snow melt and move through the area.

“The question is whether we’ll see a fast snowmelt with temps above normal,” he added. “That could be the story more than new systems coming through. Temperatures are still a little squirrely as temps likely will lag behind normal due to all that snowpack that still sits on the ground in those areas I mentioned.”

Here’s the entire conversation: