trade wars | Field 2 Field

April 27, 2020April 27, 2020

Farmer optimism hits an all-time low

Farmer optimism is in the dumper and there is no nice way to say it. COVID-19 and its economic impact, low commodity prices, trade wars, and weather have made life even more challenging. DTN found out that farmer optimism is at a record low. They’ve been doing a tri-annual survey of farmers for several years and this spring’s Agricultural Confidence Index hit an all-time low mark.

The baseline for their survey is 100. Everything below 100 is pessimistic, and any number above 100 is considered optimistic.

“We do our survey in the spring, just before planting,” said DTN Editor-In-Chief Greg Horstmeier. “We also do one at harvest, and then our final survey is in December, which is basically farm tax time. The drop in the index from the last time we did this in December is not a surprise, given everything that’s going on.

“It was a record-sized drop down to an index reading of 67,” he added. “That’s a 97-point drop, which is even more remarkable because we’re hearing that agriculture is moving on as normal. Everyone is either getting ready to or heading out into the field, so that big of a damper on the survey results is surprising.”

Horstmeier said spring is typically the most optimistic time of the year for farmers. New crops are going into the ground, which automatically means a fresh start, especially if the year before was as tough as 2019. Low optimism in the spring isn’t unusual. What’s unusual about this survey is how pessimistic farmers are about the future outlook.

The future outlook is typically very optimistic during the spring survey. “This year, that index reading was 73, which means it dove hard into negative territory,” Horstmeier said. “That was the big takeaway for me. Not only does the current situation have farmers in a pessimistic state of mind, but they don’t have a lot of promise for the foreseeable future.”

Another thing that really stood out was just how prevalent the pessimism is in different sectors of agriculture. It didn’t matter what farmers grew or how big their operations were, either. Even in down years, there’s typically difference worth noting.

“We typically see at least some differences between, for example, livestock and crop producers,” Horstmeier said. “We’ve also seen regional differences, such as the Midwest may be less optimistic than farmers in the Southeast. The pessimism was across the board, regardless of location, income level, the crops they grew, and what kind of enterprises they had.”

Speaking of Midwest farmers, in this year’s survey they showed the most pessimism currently, yet they also had the most optimism for the future. Southeastern farmers were more optimistic about their current conditions (89) but felt less optimism for their future (56).

DTN also conducts a similar survey of agribusinesses. The index level came in at a just-above-neutral 104. Agribusinesses rated their current conditions at a slightly pessimistic 85. However, they were above neutral when looking at the future, coming in at 118.

Here’s the link to the DTN survey article.

April 21, 2020April 21, 2020

Farm Safety Net Programs See Record Signup

Farm safety net programs saw a record signup this go-around.

Producers signed a record 1.77 million contracts for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs for the 2019 crop year, which is more than 107 percent of the total farm safety net contracts signed compared with a 5-year average. USDA also reminds producers that June 30 is the deadline to enroll in ARC and PLC for the 2020 crop year.

“Producers for several years have experienced low commodity prices, a volatile trade environment and catastrophic natural disasters,” said Richard Fordyce, Administrator of USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA). “Farmers looking to mitigate these risks recognize that ARC and PLC provide the financial protections they need to weather substantial drops in crop prices or revenues.”

Producers interested in enrolling for farm safety net programs in 2020 should contact their FSA county office. Producers must enroll by June 30 and make their one-time update to PLC payment yields by September 30.

FSA attributes the significant participation in the 2019 crop year ARC and PLC programs to increased producer interest in the programs under the 2018 Farm Bill and to an increase in eligible farms because of the selling and buying of farms and new opportunities for beginning farmers and military veterans with farms having 10 or fewer base acres. Enrollment for 2019 ended March 16.

USDA Service Centers, including FSA county offices, are open for business by phone only, and field work will continue with appropriate social distancing. While program delivery staff will continue to come into the office, they will be working with producers by phone and using online tools whenever possible. All Service Center visitors wishing to conduct business with the FSA, Natural Resources Conservation Service or any other Service Center agency are required to call their Service Center to schedule a phone appointment. More information can be found at farmers.gov/coronavirus.

For more information on ARC and PLC, download the program fact sheet or the 2014-2018 farm bills comparison fact sheet. Online ARC and PLC election decision tools are available at www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc. To locate the nearest USDA Service Center, visit farmers.gov/service-center-locator.

December 28, 2019December 28, 2019

Meat Sector Looking for 2020 Rebound

Here’s the complete podcast with Mike Zuzolo. You can play it here or download it by clicking on the three dots on the right side of the player.

“Meat, the redder, the better.” Words of wisdom from the grill master (me). However, those folks who raise that red meat (which includes all types of the protein products in the meat case at your local grocery store), for the most part, had a difficult year.

The U.S. ag sector has to be happy to see the end of the calendar year 2019. It was rough, which might be the understatement of the century so far. I’ve been doing a series of interviews for the National Association of Farm Broadcasting News Service (I’m the assistant editor/reporter) that looks back at 2019 and peeks ahead to next year. I caught up with Mike Zuzolo, President of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas.

2019 was not good for most sectors of the U.S. ag economy, including the protein sector. “No, it wasn’t,” Zuzolo says. “Given the packer break-evens being in the hundreds of dollars for much of the year in cattle, and given the cash prices of hogs struggling to get above $50 live prices, as well as seeing that African Swine Fever was decimating half of the world’s hog herd, I’d say 2019 was a very big disappointment to the cattle and hog industry.”

He said the challenges didn’t just include the trade troubles that dominated headlines throughout the year, they also included a major fire at a Cargill plant in Holcomb, Kansas. Zuzolo said that shot cattle prices sharply lower.

“Prices went below break-evens and they didn’t recover for several weeks,” he recalled. “In my opinion as a livestock analyst, it really shouldn’t have hit the markets quite that hard. The market saw cash prices for cattle collapse from around $120 to $100 for several weeks. At the same time, ground beef and boxed beef prices shot sharply higher because of expectations for tighter supplies.”

Cattle producers took a major hit at that time. The good news is I want to leave you is that Zuzolo sees potential for several bright spots ahead for the protein sector in 2020.

You can find Mike’s website at https://globalanalytics.wpcomstaging.com/

May 30, 2019May 30, 2019

MDA Helping Professionals Help Farm Stress

Summer workshops will teach farm stress management skills

Farmer stress levels are way, way up. They’re living with weather that won’t let a great many of them get crops in the ground. Overseas trade wars have cut down on places to sell their commodities, leading to a lot of grains and oilseeds on hand, driving prices even lower. Farmer stress is something that mental and even physical health professionals may not have the experience to help them with, so the Minnesota Department of Agriculture is trying to help with that.

Farmer stress is as high as it’s been since the 1980s. Stressful times in agriculture can trigger bad news and difficult conversations. In response, the Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) is offering Navigating Conflict & Tough Conversations in Agriculture, a workshop designed to help agriculture professionals navigate potentially contentious situations.

It’s Rough in Rural America

“Farmers are having a tough time right now,” Agriculture Commissioner Thom Petersen said. “Farmer stress is high because there’s a lot on the line, and we recognize that lenders, agency staff, clergy, educators, veterinarians, agricultural advisors, and businesspeople can find themselves trying to help in situations where emotions run high.”

Workshop topics include reducing anxiety and fear about interpersonal conflict; understanding how self-awareness and group dynamics contribute to successful outcomes; exploring the connection between conflict and change; and precautions participants can take to keep themselves safe at work – both in and outside their office.

University of Minnesota Extension Educator Denise Stromme and local law enforcement will teach the workshop on dealing with farmer stress at six locations in June and July. All sessions run from 9 a.m. – 12 p.m.

June 18, Detroit Lakes, Minnesota Community & Technical College
June 19, Thief River Falls, Northland Community & Technical College
June 20, Duluth, Lake Superior College
July 8, Marshall, Southwest Minnesota State University
July 9, Faribault, South Central College
July 10, St. Cloud, Saint Cloud Technical & Community College

The workshop is free but space is limited. Register at www.navigating-conflict-in-ag.eventbrite.com or by calling 651-201-6012.

Farmer Stress is Unique

Listen, I grew up working on a dairy farm and got to understand farmer mindsets. It’s no fun to admit you need help. If there’s a group of Americans who have “John Wayne” go-it-alone-syndrome more than farmers do, I’d like to know who that would be. They don’t want to ask for help. It’s important that health professionals get the background information they need at a workshop like this. The stresses that they deal with are very unique and it’s quite difficult for non-farm folks to relate to. I’ve seen it first hand, living in both rural and urban areas through my 48 years of living.

All participants will receive certificates of attendance; several organizations have approved continuing education credits.

Individuals with a disability who need a reasonable accommodation to participate in this event should contact Stephen Moser at 651-201-6012 or through the Minnesota Relay Service at 711 as soon as possible.

Disclaimer

This workshop is supported by the Minnesota Department of Agriculture and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under award number 2018-38640-28416 through the North Central Region SARE program under project number ENC18-170. The MDA and USDA are equal opportunity employers and service providers. The opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this workshop do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.