Trade dispute puts U.S. agriculture right in the middle

Trade is important to agriculture. There, I said it. American agriculture is the best in the world. When you produce goods at the rate we do, there has to be somewhere to sell it overseas. However, thanks to the trade dispute with China, as well as recent disputes with some of our top trading partners, trade isn’t happening with the regularity it needs to.

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Trade has never been more important for U.S. agriculture. One analyst says U.S. agriculture might have become a little too reliant on China as a customer? (Photo from thepacker.com)

In turn, when trade doesn’t happen the way it should, prices drop and farmers can’t make a living. I wanted to find out more about the trade dispute and what’s really going on. When you want to learn something like that, you find someone with skin in the game that can teach you the ins and outs.

Dan Ujczo (YOOT-zoh) is an international trade lawyer with the Dickinson-Wright Law Firm of Columbus, Ohio. I’ve known him for over a year now, ever since the dispute began. In typical Chad Smith fashion, my first question is “what the hell is going on here?” How’s that for direct and to the point?

“There was never going to be a deal in which things would go back to the way they were prior to January of 2017, when President Trump was inaugurated,” Ujczo said. “When Trump met with President Xi last December, they both thought we’d have a deal inside of 90 days. Then we heard they would make a deal in May.

“We never thought there would be a deal in which tariffs were completely rolled back,” he said. “Certainly not on the items from List One and List Two, which were an initial 25 percent duty on $50 billion worth of goods.”

When it comes to the items on List One and List Two, Ujczo says the U.S. government talked with industry and looked at the future of manufacturing, deciding then that these are the items we don’t want China taking the lead on. “Tariffs probably weren’t ever coming off those items,” he said.

Here’s the full conversation:

Markets Expert Talks Trade War, USDA reports

Markets occasionally confuse me. However, one part of a career in journalism/broadcasting that I really enjoy is calling people who can educate me on things I really don’t have much expertise in. The older I get, the more fun it is to learn (and try) new things, but I digress. I was working on an assignment with the National Association of Farm Broadcasting the other day and had to find out how the trade dispute between the U.S. and China is affecting commodity markets.

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Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas, has been analyzing markets for 2.5 decades. He talks on the podcast about the markets reacting to the trade war between the U.S. and China, as well as the pending USDA reports coming out on Monday, August 12. (photo from YouTube.com)

Well, here’s the thing. Commodity markets are not my area of expertise, so I called up Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting in Atchison, Kansas. He’s been in the markets for 2.5 decades so if you have a question, he’s the guy that can answer it.

As a farm broadcaster/editor, I was curious about how the China announcement that they wouldn’t be buying any American farm products right now was affecting the markets. Obviously, the effect wouldn’t be a positive one. However, as you’ll hear in the conversation, it could have been even worse.

And believe me, before we progress any further I need to stress that no one is saying things aren’t bad right now in the agricultural sector. I wanted to find out what the market reaction was to the announcement from China. Mike said the key reaction market reaction took place in the currency and stock markets.

“Quite frankly, Chad, I think this is maybe one of the few glimmers of good news, or potentially supportive news, for the commodity markets,” he said. “I think we’ve done a fairly good job in the markets of pricing in a good portion of the end result of these trade frictions turning into the beginnings of a trade war. It’s going to be playing out in the currency markets as we go forward.

“The net result is the commodity markets didn’t react as negatively as they could, simply because the strength of the U.S. dollar was dropping,” Zuzolo said. “When the dollar goes down, it makes our goods cheaper to export. At the same time when we had the news out of China, the gold market was making fresh, 6.5-year highs. That too is commodity supportive.”

Here’s the full conversation with Mike Zuzolo.