WASDE | Field 2 Field

Markets occasionally confuse me. However, one part of a career in journalism/broadcasting that I really enjoy is calling people who can educate me on things I really don’t have much expertise in. The older I get, the more fun it is to learn (and try) new things, but I digress. I was working on an assignment with the National Association of Farm Broadcasting the other day and had to find out how the trade dispute between the U.S. and China is affecting commodity markets.

Well, here’s the thing. Commodity markets are not my area of expertise, so I called up Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting in Atchison, Kansas. He’s been in the markets for 2.5 decades so if you have a question, he’s the guy that can answer it.

As a farm broadcaster/editor, I was curious about how the China announcement that they wouldn’t be buying any American farm products right now was affecting the markets. Obviously, the effect wouldn’t be a positive one. However, as you’ll hear in the conversation, it could have been even worse.

And believe me, before we progress any further I need to stress that no one is saying things aren’t bad right now in the agricultural sector. I wanted to find out what the market reaction was to the announcement from China. Mike said the key reaction market reaction took place in the currency and stock markets.

“Quite frankly, Chad, I think this is maybe one of the few glimmers of good news, or potentially supportive news, for the commodity markets,” he said. “I think we’ve done a fairly good job in the markets of pricing in a good portion of the end result of these trade frictions turning into the beginnings of a trade war. It’s going to be playing out in the currency markets as we go forward.

“The net result is the commodity markets didn’t react as negatively as they could, simply because the strength of the U.S. dollar was dropping,” Zuzolo said. “When the dollar goes down, it makes our goods cheaper to export. At the same time when we had the news out of China, the gold market was making fresh, 6.5-year highs. That too is commodity supportive.”

Here’s the full conversation with Mike Zuzolo.

The July World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate Report (WASDE) didn’t make many changes from the previous month. In fact, it wasn’t worth much at all to a lot of the industry. USDA admitted it will have a better picture of planted acres in the U.S. after resurveying producers this month and releasing the updated numbers in August.

Joe Vaclavik, founder and president of Standard Grain in Chicago, says this month’s WASDE report was considered by many to be a “placeholder.”

He’s not surprised that the number didn’t change a great deal from the last report…tape

There weren’t a lot of surprises on the demand side of the WASDE report…tape

Vaclavik says the grain stocks numbers likely aren’t accurate…tape

With this round of WADE reports done, Vaclavik says the markets are very much locked in on two things. He tells agweb.com that markets will be watching weather and the August report. “Because of the variability in both crop conditions and crop progress, it’s very, very difficult for anyone to look at a weather forecast or pattern and say if it’s bullish or bearish,” Vaclavik says.

He says a lot of farmers might be looking for a rise in prices because this year’s crop is anticipated to be very small. “Just because the crop is light doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to go higher,” Vaclavik says. “You don’t want to completely abandon any semblance of a marketing plan. We’ve been hoping to get to these corn prices, and it took five or six years to finally get back here.

“Be ready for volatility,” he added. “The environment will continue to be volatile until we learn more about the crop in August.”

Again, Joe Vaclavik is President and Founder of Standard Grains.

Tag: WASDE

Markets Expert Talks Trade War, USDA reports

July WASDE is nothing more than a “placeholder”